A rare triple threat: three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes
For the first time in twelve years, we have a rare triple threat in the Atlantic--three simultaneous hurricanes. Hurricane Karl joined Hurricanes Igor and Julia in the steadily expanding Hurricanes of 2010 club this morning, becoming the sixth hurricane of the season. The last time we had three simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic was in 1998. That year also had four simultaneous hurricanes--Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl--for a brief time on September 25. There has been just one other case of four simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes, on August 22, 1893. According to Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State, three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes is a rare phenomena, having occurred only eight other times since 1851. The other years were 1893, 1926, 1950, 1961, 1967, 1980, 1995, and 1998.
Figure 1. Triple trouble: From left to right, Hurricanes Karl, Igor, and Julia roil the Atlantic. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Karl
Hurricane Karl continues to intensify. The latest Hurricane Hunter flight, flying at 12,000 feet, found flight level winds of 95 mph. This suggests surface winds of 85 mph, though the top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument were about 80 mph. Mexican radar out of Alvarado shows the outer spirals bands of Karl are dumping heavy rains on the Mexican coast along the Bay of Campeche.
Figure 2. Afternoon radar image from the Alvarado, Mexico radar. The eye of Karl is visible in the upper right, and rain bands are affecting the coast to the east of the radar site. Image credit: Mexican Weather Service..
Forecast for Karl
Conditions for intensification are ideal in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, with wind shear expected to be low, 5 - 10 knots, SSTs warm, 29°C - 30°C, and the atmosphere very moist. These conditions, combined with the topography of the surrounding coast which tends to enhance counter-clockwise flow, should allow Karl to intensify into Category 2 hurricane before making landfall between Tampico and Vercruz, Mexico Friday afternoon. Karl is a small storm, and is unlikely to bring any rain or wind to Texas.
Igor
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters made their first foray into Hurricane Igor this afternoon, and found a high-end Category 3 storm, with a central pressure of 940 mb and top winds at 10,000 feet of 150 mph. The southwest portion of the eyewall was open, so Igor has the potential to intensify once again if it can close off the gap. There are no major changes to the track or intensify forecast for Igor in the latest set of model runs. Igor is expected to remain a major hurricane for the next two days, and is headed northwest at 7 mph. This motion will carry the core of the hurricane close to NOAA buoy 41044 between 9 - 11 pm EDT tonight. Top winds at the buoy so far today have been 65 mph, gusting to 81 mph, with a significant wave height of 38 feet (the significant wave height is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves.)
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model develops a new tropical depression a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa 2 - 4 days from now. The GFS is suggesting the eastern Caribbean could see a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Igor is too strong for that.
Assuming Alex gets upgraded to Cat 3 at some point in the future, wouldn't it be something to have this number of hurricanes and them all be majors?
im beginning to believe he is even too strong for the upper level steering lol
Yeah. Can't recall seeing that happen before. I suspect they're looking at the same satellite imagery we are - actually, probably slightly more up-to-date - and getting really nervous. If this thing strengthens explosively in the next few hours, and crashes into the coast as a strong Cat 3, it could be really awful. I'm sure that they're talking to the Embassy, and directly to their Mexican counterparts. Bear in mind that it's already 10PM along that coastline, and that the storm will be halfway on shore by the time many people wake up and switch on their electronic devices again. The NHC, I suspect, wants to get one more fix on this bad boy while there's still a chance of reaching potentially affected populations tonight.
LOL!
Gilbert scared quite a few people. I have family in Beaumont (near where Rita came in) and they were asking about staying with us (Dallas) during Gilbert.
Not good for those in the way of this monster. He could be a terror to those in his path. Hope all are ready.
LOL if this graphic glitch were true it'd be doooooooom
The ghost of Alex is asking if he looks like a major to you... XP
exactly
BERMUDA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 58.7W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
if he takes his time, and gets deep enough, the chances of him getting a little more north (closer to the border but not that far) increase, based on steering.
Good data is always appreciated.
Same here, I hope everyone there is fully aware of the situation and what exactly is heading towards them. Not a pretty situation.
Wow, that would be the true definition of doom!
LOL! Make sure you save that.
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST THU SEP 16 2010
...IGOR PASSES OVER NOAA BUOY...GOOD DATA COLLECTED...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 58.7W
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE WEATHER SERVICE OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.7 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IGOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND
POWERFUL HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290
MILES...465 KM. IGOR PASSED NEAR NOAA BUOY 41044 AND REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 79 MPH...128 KM/HR....WITH GUSTS TO 105 MPH...
169 KM/HR DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM DATA FROM THE NOAA BUOY
IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL ALSO
CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS IN BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WORSENING AS IGOR APPROACHES. SWELLS WILL REACH THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
thanks xcool ive been trying to say that for the last 2 hours looks like wants go due west now
I like my trees, my house wouldn't really get any significant damage but not all the houses are like mine and then there is the flooding... That simply can't happen. D:
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290
MILES...465 KM. IGOR PASSED NEAR NOAA BUOY 41044 AND REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 79 MPH...128 KM/HR....WITH GUSTS TO 105 MPH...
169 KM/HR DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
Already done :) hahaha
It would likely be a disaster of epic proportions.
it's pretty darn close I'd say. He intensified quickly in some warm waters.
I hope it doesn't take 10 years to answer this question...(like my namesake)
Whoever estimated that pressure using the buoy earlier? Good call!
I am going to stop with a perfect record then... my first Guesstacast... if it comes true... I will be 100%
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