A rare triple threat: three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes
For the first time in twelve years, we have a rare triple threat in the Atlantic--three simultaneous hurricanes. Hurricane Karl joined Hurricanes Igor and Julia in the steadily expanding Hurricanes of 2010 club this morning, becoming the sixth hurricane of the season. The last time we had three simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic was in 1998. That year also had four simultaneous hurricanes--Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl--for a brief time on September 25. There has been just one other case of four simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes, on August 22, 1893. According to Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State, three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes is a rare phenomena, having occurred only eight other times since 1851. The other years were 1893, 1926, 1950, 1961, 1967, 1980, 1995, and 1998.
Figure 1. Triple trouble: From left to right, Hurricanes Karl, Igor, and Julia roil the Atlantic. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Karl
Hurricane Karl continues to intensify. The latest Hurricane Hunter flight, flying at 12,000 feet, found flight level winds of 95 mph. This suggests surface winds of 85 mph, though the top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument were about 80 mph. Mexican radar out of Alvarado shows the outer spirals bands of Karl are dumping heavy rains on the Mexican coast along the Bay of Campeche.
Figure 2. Afternoon radar image from the Alvarado, Mexico radar. The eye of Karl is visible in the upper right, and rain bands are affecting the coast to the east of the radar site. Image credit: Mexican Weather Service..
Forecast for Karl
Conditions for intensification are ideal in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, with wind shear expected to be low, 5 - 10 knots, SSTs warm, 29°C - 30°C, and the atmosphere very moist. These conditions, combined with the topography of the surrounding coast which tends to enhance counter-clockwise flow, should allow Karl to intensify into Category 2 hurricane before making landfall between Tampico and Vercruz, Mexico Friday afternoon. Karl is a small storm, and is unlikely to bring any rain or wind to Texas.
Igor
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters made their first foray into Hurricane Igor this afternoon, and found a high-end Category 3 storm, with a central pressure of 940 mb and top winds at 10,000 feet of 150 mph. The southwest portion of the eyewall was open, so Igor has the potential to intensify once again if it can close off the gap. There are no major changes to the track or intensify forecast for Igor in the latest set of model runs. Igor is expected to remain a major hurricane for the next two days, and is headed northwest at 7 mph. This motion will carry the core of the hurricane close to NOAA buoy 41044 between 9 - 11 pm EDT tonight. Top winds at the buoy so far today have been 65 mph, gusting to 81 mph, with a significant wave height of 38 feet (the significant wave height is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves.)
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model develops a new tropical depression a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa 2 - 4 days from now. The GFS is suggesting the eastern Caribbean could see a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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So, 2010 is becoming more similar ACE-Wise with 2005?
Nicaragua has had that much rain?
Yes but it is the rest of the mess in the ICTZ around it that is of concern to me in the future.
so if thats current would that make igor go more west or stall right unless its just temp
Well said !!!
It would be nice if Julia could pull IGOR off Bermuda. Jeeze. I'd be stocking the hurricane shelter if I were on that island right now. Cookin up the grub and puttin it on ice for the duration.
Supplemental Measurements Lowest 1-minute Pressure
Time (ADT) Pressure
9:50 pm 940.3 mb
Need a much bigger dip in winds to say yea/nay
http://www.hurricane.com/hurricane-records.php
the troughs would be the exact reason a storm makes landfall along the US Gulf Coast
So yes
With 35.8 ft wave recorded. Water temp has dropped pretty quickly as well
yeah, pressure is as low as measured earlier in the day by recon, with a surface wind of 60 kts, which means that the lowest pressure will be below 940mb. If pressure is any indication, IMHO, Igor may be a cat 4 again at 11 pm.
I'd have already caught the first flight out to anywhere but there. Igor really is a beast of a hurricane.
I not very smart at this. but was wondering is this map u put up showing them 2 high coming together like a blocking them from going north? Just trying to understand. I probably have it all wrong, but hey this is the only way to learn right.
sheri
haha no kidding , Look at that, it was miserable here in Dallas today, i can only imagine how Lousiana and Houston feel atm
can anyone post the gfs that shows something in the gulf? where do i find the models for free? been wondering.
yeah, i need to wait until the next map comes out which will be very soon, if it doent change ill tend to agree with the NOGAPS and ECWMF that bring igor to 70W before it turns NE
Atlantic Hurricane and Tropical Storm Records
# Earliest tropical storm formed: Subtropical Storm One, January 18, 1978, through January 23, 1978, 45 mph. Excluding this subtropical storm, the Groundhog Day Tropical Storm of 1952 February 2, 1952-February 3, 1952 with 50 mph winds was the earliest formed in a calendar year.
# Earliest Hurricane formed in a calendar year: March 6, 1908 Hurricane
# Earliest Category 3+ hurricane : Hurricane Able, May 15, 1951 (In May/June 1825 there was a major hurricane also, but there is less information available about it due to the records of the time.)
# Earliest hurricane in existence in a calendar year: Hurricane Alice, January 1-6, 80mpg 1955 (and December 31, 1954), formed the previous year. The earliest tropical storm was Tropical Storm Zeta in 2005-2006 (see below)
# Latest tropical storm formed: Tropical Storm Zeta, 11am AST, December 30, 2005. Previous, Hurricane Alice 1am EST, December 30, 1954.
# Latest hurricane formed: Hurricane Alice 1am EST, December 30, 1954. The only two cross-season storms on record are Hurricane Alice in 1954-1955 and Tropical Storm Zeta 2005-2006 (See below).
# Latest hurricane in existence from previous year: Hurricane Alice, 1954-1955, January 6, 1955 (see Tropical Storm Zeta, January 6, 2006 for the latest Tropical Storm in existence)
# Strongest (most intense) hurricane: Hurricane Wilma 2005, 882 millibars (mb) (the previous most intense hurricane was Hurricane Gilbert 1988 at 888 mb)
# Strongest land-falling United States Hurricane: Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, 160mph 892 mbar
# Longest lived hurricane :Hurricane San Ciriaco, August 1899 (28 days), Hurricane Ginger September 1971 (27.25 days), Hurricane Inga September 1969, 24.75 days, Hurricane Kyle September 2002, 22 days, Hurricane Carrie, September 1957 & Hurricane Inez September 1966 (20.75 days).
# Longest Category 5 hurricane: Hurricane Allen, 1980, reached Category 5 status on 3 occasions (Ivan and Isabel did the same, but Allen lasted longer). Hurricane Dog 1950 2.50 days; Hurricane Isabel 2003, Hurricane David 1979, Hurricane Mitch 1998 all 1.75 days.
# Most storms per season: 28 in 2005 season (revised upward by 1 April 2006) (previous: 21 named storms in 1933).
# Fewest storms per season (since 1965): 1983 4 storms; 1965, 1977, 1982, 1986, 6 storms; 1972, 1987, 1992, 1994, 7 storms
# What happens if they run out of names? The Greek alphabet is used: Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, eta, theta,iota, kappa, lambda, mu, nu xi, omikron, pi, rho, sigma,tau,upsilon,phi, chi, psi, omega.
# When do they start with the following season's names? January 1 of the year, not June 1st when the Atlantic hurricane season begins or May 15th for the Pacific hurricane season. However storms that overlap from one calendar year into another are not renamed.
# Strongest January hurricane: Hurricane Alice, January 1955, 80 mph winds (peak January 2, 1955) (The naming is a story in itself since it became a tropical storm Dec 30, 1954 but advisories weren't issued until January 1955, so it was given the name Alice, which made it the second Alice for 1954 - at that time names were re-used each year), December 30, 1954-January 6, 1955. Tropical Storm Zeta December 30, 2005-January 6, 2006. Subtropical Storm One, January 18, 1978 45 mph winds is the only storm formed in January.
# Strongest February tropical storm: Groundhog Day Storm of 1952 February 2, 1952-February 3, 1952, 50 mph
# Strongest March hurricane: March 6, 1908 Hurricane, category 2 storm.
# Strongest April tropical storm: Ana 2003 (the only April storm in fact), April 20-April 24, 60 mph winds, 994 mb
# Strongest May hurricane:Hurricane Able 1951 (Category 3), 1908 Hurricane (Category ?), Alma 1970 (Cat 1), Tropical Storm 1933, May 15, 1887 (70mph) & May 17, 1887 (60 mph), earliest two storms active at once. Tropical Storm One, May 22, 1948 (50mph). Tropical Storm One, May 19, 1940.
# Strongest June hurricane: Hurricane Audrey, June 25-29, 1957 (145mph, 946 mbar) (see also Alma 1966, 130 mph, 970 mbar and Agnes June 14-25, 1972 did a lot of damage, 85mph, 977 mbar)
# Strongest July hurricane: Emily, 2005 (161 mph top sustained winds - earliest recorded category 5 hurricane) (previous record: Dennis (150 mph) 2005; Hurricane #1 (140 mph) in 1926.
# Strongest August hurricane: Allen 1980 899 mbar, 190 mph (see also Katrina, 2005 175 mph sustained winds, 902 mbar; Hurricane Camille, August 1969, 190 mph, 905 mbar; Andrew, August 1992, 175mph, 922 mbar)
# Strongest September hurricane: Gilbert, 185 mph, 888 mbar, (see Rita, 2005 175 mph, 897 mbar; Hurricane Janet, 1955, 175mph 914 mb)
# Strongest October hurricane: Wilma 2005, 175 mph, 882 mbar. Wilma became the most intense hurricane in the Atlantic Basin ever recorded.
# Strongest November hurricane: Lenny, 1999, November 13-23. 155 mph, 933 mbar. Also notable for its eastward motion. Tied with Michelle in 2001 based on central pressure of 933 mbar, 140 mph wind.
# Strongest December hurricane: 1925 Hurricane, December 4, 1925, (100mph); see Hurricane Epsilon 2005 , 85mph, 979 mbar and Hurricane Nicole of 1998 85mph; see also Hurricane Lili 1984 80mph. Hurricane Epsilon 2005 is the longest lasting December storm.
# Season with most hurricanes: 2005 with 15 Hurricanes (previous record: 12 in 1969)
# Most major hurricanes hitting the U.S.: 4 in 2005 (previous record: three in 2004). Major hurricanes are category 3+.
# Most tornadoes spawned: Hurricane Frances, 2004 (123), Hurricane Ivan 2004 (117), Hurricane Beulah 1967, (115), Hurricane Katrina 2005 (30). Hurricane Andrew also was notable for its tornados in the South Miami area.
# Most Category 5 Hurricanes in one season: 4 in 2005 (Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma) (previous record: two in 1960 and 1961)
# Most Tropical Storms/hurricanes before August 1: 7 in 2005 (previous record: five in 1997)
# Most two-year consecutive total Tropical Storms: 2004-2005, 41 (previous record: 32 most recently in 1995-96)
# Most two-year consecutive total Hurricanes: 2005, 25 (previous record: 21 in 1886-87)
# Most Two-Year Consecutive Total of Major Hurricanes: 2004-2005, 13 (ties record in 1950-51)
# Most Two-Year Consecutive Major Hurricane Landfalls: 2004-2005, Seven (previous record: five in 1954-55)
# Most Two-Year Consecutive Florida Major Hurricane Landfalls: 2004-2005, Five (previous record: three in 1949-50)
# Most Three-Year Consecutive Total of Tropical Storms: 2003,2004,2005, 57 (previous record: 43 most recently in 2002-04)
# Most Three-Year Consecutive Total of Hurricanes: 2005, 31 (previous record: 27 in 1886-88)
# Most Three-Year Consecutive Total of Major Hurricanes: 2003,2004,2005, 16 (ties record in 1949-51 and 1950-52)
# Deadliest U.S. Hurricane since 1928: Katrina, 2005 (at least 1,300).
# 2005 had three of the six strongest hurricanes on record: Wilma 882 mb (1st), Rita 897 mb (4th), Katrina 902 mb (6th) Earliest hurricane to strike the United States: Alma struck northwest Florida on June 9, 1966.
# Four hurricanes have existed simultaneously twice: August 22, 1893 and September 25-27, 1998 with Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl as hurricanes. In 1971 there were 5 tropical cyclones simultaneously, but only 2 were hurricanes.
# Latest hurricane to strike the U. S.: late on November 30, 1925 near Tampa, Florida.
# Most storm names retired in a single year: 2005, 5 names. Previous record 4 names in 1955, 1995 and, 2004.
# Only Tropical Storm (e.g. it never was a hurricane) name retired: Allison, 2001. It was a huge rain event and did enough damage to be retired.
# Longest July Tropical System (Hurricane or Tropical Storm):
# Earliest far-East Atlantic storm: Hurricane Bertha (July 3, 2008-July 20, 2008) (surpassing 1995's Bertha which formed 2 days later and several hundred miles to the west)
# Longest lasting July Hurricane/Tropical Storm: Hurricane Bertha, July 3, 2008-July 20, 2008.
# Most landfalls in a particular state, Florida: Tropical Storm Fay, 2008, when it hit the Florida Keys, Southwest Florida (near Naples), Northeast Florida (near Flagler Beach), and the Florida Panhandle (near Apalachicola, Florida).
# Fastest moving hurricane or tropical storm:Now the question here is what are the fastest moving storms? This is important because forward speed can impact both wind velocity and surge, and decrease the flooding from rain. The fastest recorded hurricane was "The Long Island Express" in 1938, a category 3 storm. It was travelling between 60 and 70 miles per hour!
ok i give up what are you seeing in that map thanks
Yeay! Please keep us informed cuz it's difficult to imagine from out here on the mainland. Since figuring you live out in the ocean you must expect stuff like this and are prepared for it, right?!
I think that is what it is suggesting, not saying it will happen, but something to look out for
I don't think Julia will be able to do much of anything to Igor, its gigantic, but you can easily see that Julia is either moving due west or just south of it for 3 hours now, probably because its being influenced so greatly by Igor, i am very interested to see the new NHC discussion on Julia, as i don't think it was ever supposed to even get close to this far west this far south.
The gap to Igor's north is closing.
Whoa. I wouldn't fly out cuz I wouldn't know when I'd get back in. Would just hunker down.
No, I'm not saying that. I guess I'm trying to point out that while, yes, 2005 was an amazing year and one we're not likely to see again anytime soon, it's very high ACE wasn't because it's storms were so powerful, but simply because there were so darn many (and, in fact, 2010's storms may end up being more powerful ACE-wise as a whole than 2005's).
What software is that?
8-minute winds:
for comparison purposes.
1-minute wind went up while 8-minute went down with a drop in wave heights.
i agree it looks that way here too this if it holds could get interesting tonight
they are all fish storms. the forecast for all these US strikes was and is a bust. some here are trying to hard to cover that up, or to predict doom in the future. there isn't even anything out there that COULD hit the US now!
Well said !
You see that is why some get the wrong idea of the US and I must say rightfully so, though I'm pro USA and probably always will be , sometimes certain people come across as if that is the only place on earth that counts or have human being inhabiting it, enough said , Have a goodnight everyone!!
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