A rare triple threat: three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes
For the first time in twelve years, we have a rare triple threat in the Atlantic--three simultaneous hurricanes. Hurricane Karl joined Hurricanes Igor and Julia in the steadily expanding Hurricanes of 2010 club this morning, becoming the sixth hurricane of the season. The last time we had three simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic was in 1998. That year also had four simultaneous hurricanes--Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl--for a brief time on September 25. There has been just one other case of four simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes, on August 22, 1893. According to Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State, three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes is a rare phenomena, having occurred only eight other times since 1851. The other years were 1893, 1926, 1950, 1961, 1967, 1980, 1995, and 1998.
Figure 1. Triple trouble: From left to right, Hurricanes Karl, Igor, and Julia roil the Atlantic. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Karl
Hurricane Karl continues to intensify. The latest Hurricane Hunter flight, flying at 12,000 feet, found flight level winds of 95 mph. This suggests surface winds of 85 mph, though the top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument were about 80 mph. Mexican radar out of Alvarado shows the outer spirals bands of Karl are dumping heavy rains on the Mexican coast along the Bay of Campeche.
Figure 2. Afternoon radar image from the Alvarado, Mexico radar. The eye of Karl is visible in the upper right, and rain bands are affecting the coast to the east of the radar site. Image credit: Mexican Weather Service..
Forecast for Karl
Conditions for intensification are ideal in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, with wind shear expected to be low, 5 - 10 knots, SSTs warm, 29°C - 30°C, and the atmosphere very moist. These conditions, combined with the topography of the surrounding coast which tends to enhance counter-clockwise flow, should allow Karl to intensify into Category 2 hurricane before making landfall between Tampico and Vercruz, Mexico Friday afternoon. Karl is a small storm, and is unlikely to bring any rain or wind to Texas.
Igor
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters made their first foray into Hurricane Igor this afternoon, and found a high-end Category 3 storm, with a central pressure of 940 mb and top winds at 10,000 feet of 150 mph. The southwest portion of the eyewall was open, so Igor has the potential to intensify once again if it can close off the gap. There are no major changes to the track or intensify forecast for Igor in the latest set of model runs. Igor is expected to remain a major hurricane for the next two days, and is headed northwest at 7 mph. This motion will carry the core of the hurricane close to NOAA buoy 41044 between 9 - 11 pm EDT tonight. Top winds at the buoy so far today have been 65 mph, gusting to 81 mph, with a significant wave height of 38 feet (the significant wave height is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves.)
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model develops a new tropical depression a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa 2 - 4 days from now. The GFS is suggesting the eastern Caribbean could see a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 23:53Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 13
Storm Name: Karl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 06
Part A...
Date: Near the closest hour of 0Z on the 17th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 19.9N 93.9W
Location: 147 miles (237 km) to the NNW (335°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, México.
Marsden Square: 046 (About)
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
977mb (28.85 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 95° (from the E) 87 knots (100 mph)
1000mb -203m (-666 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 486m (1,594 ft) 23.8°C (74.8°F) 23.6°C (74.5°F) 110° (from the ESE) 80 knots (92 mph)
850mb 1,227m (4,026 ft) 19.8°C (67.6°F) 15.8°C (60.4°F) 115° (from the ESE) 71 knots (82 mph)
Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 23:35Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.
Remarks Section...
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in maximum wind band.
Splash Location: 19.89N 93.95W
Splash Time: 23:37Z
Usually these types of Hurricanes can be very intense and destructive in the area in which they hit directly, Hurricane Charley of 2004 comes to mind, I think its bigger than what would be descibed asa Vortcane though
Link
Cat 3 strength is considered major, regardless of size.
There's a Mojo Rising.
Wind shear:
Upper-level winds:
Where you at again? what kind of advisory?
+1 BTW my friend How are you doing? I assume you're just fine :)
oooh nooo
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2010
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 18W S OF
17N MOVING W AT 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CYCLONIC TURNING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE N OF 12N. A DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
SURROUNDS THE WAVE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-14N
BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 24W. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOONAL TROUGH
COVERING A LARGER AREA IN THE TROPICAL ATLC.
Is the trough situation going to change at all this season? It seems like it is here to stay and that no hurricanes will make landfall in the U.S. mainland. Call me crazy, but when was the last time we have had this many hurricanes of this strength come this close and not make landfall.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE KARL IS CENTERED NEAR 19.7N 94.1W AT 17/0000 UTC OR
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO...OR ABOUT 235
MI...375 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO...MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
You could move to Bermuda, they should expect a major hurricane hitting them, I guess on Saturday.Lol
10-N 39W ,GFS STORM.
Hi. That's a great thumbnail assessment tool. Thanks.
:)
I'm not there. I'm in Oklahoma. Was looking at the TV feed someone posted.
Oh, I agree that in the very small area it hit, there would certainly be significant destruction.
I guess what I am looking at is more on the order of public perception / public safety. People tend to 'remember the last time'. If this thing were heading over to say, Destin, here in Panama City, we would barely notice it other than a few hours of blustery weather. Destin, of course, would see it differently than us. The problem is, next time a major hurricane is heading our way, a real one, people will recall the most recent...
I guess I am more sensitive to this kind of thing after our experience with Dennis. For those who don't know, the local media was told that the County Emergency Management people would be meeting in the morning at 7am to discuss mandatory evacuations should it become necessary. Unfortunately, someone on the news said that there was a mandatory evacuation ordered to begin at 7am the next morning. One media outlet after another jumped on that and everyone freaked. Dennis was, of course, a non-event for us. There hasn't been an evacuation called since, real or imagined... But I really wonder what will happen when the time comes? Maybe it's been long enough for people to have gotten over that. Only time will tell I guess.
For that reason, I really hate to see stuff get over-hyped.
The the whole concept is skewed when you compare storms like Ike to Karl......there is no comparison. Ike was a disaster. Karl is a glorified tornado. That's why the pressure needs to be incorporated into the scale. Karl will hit Cat 3 winds if he drops to 960mb pressure. Alex, who also likely had Cat 3 winds at landfall, was a larger storm and thus had a pressure of 13mb lower than that with the same winds. Because of his size though, he was a more dangerous hurricane. The central pressure of a hurricane tells you a lot more about the overall power of the storm, not necessarily the maximum wind speed. Size must be factored in. It plays a massive role in storm surge impact too.
Cat 3 wind speed no matter what should probably be still considered "major" because the wind damage will be the same wherever the eye makes landfall, but the overall power rating of these things needs to be reformed.
Preaching to the choir here.... :)
Right, and what I am saying is that the criteria is too narrow.
Ike made landfall as a Cat 2. Not major.
Karl is a 20 mile wide pipsqueak. But a major.
Just doesn't seem right.
Wow. Karl hasn't even popped its eye yet, and it's a cat. 2. Julia recently had major resurgence in its eye, and it's a cat. 1?! Time for both storms to be rated cat. 3 when Karl gets an eye!
Good for the Cape Verde season, BAD BAD for the Caribbean season right around the corner. If the GFS holds true you'll be changing your tune in a week or so.
Unfortunately, it looks like Julia has a fatal attraction for Igor. If she gets much more closer, Igor will slap her with some shear.
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