92L still a threat to develop; Igor a hurricane; TD 12 forming near Africa
Tropical disturbance (92L) over the Central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of the Dominican Republic, remains a threat to develop into a tropical depression. Satellite loops this morning show 92L may be starting to form a surface circulation, and an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate 92L this afternoon to see if a tropical depression is forming.
The storm has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorm with limited low-level spiral banding and upper-level outflow, thanks to an infusion of dry air last night that disrupted the storm. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico shows that heavy rains are affecting that island, but there is no rotation to the radar echoes evident. Wind shear over 92L is low, 5 - 10 knots. The waters beneath are hot, 29.5°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of 92L, and this dry air could interfere with development at times over the next few days.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 92L.
Track forecast for 92L
The disturbance is moving west to west-northwest at 15 mph, and steering currents favor a continuation of this motion for the next three days. Model support for development is scattered. The GFS and NOGAPS models do not develop 92L. The GFDL and ECMWF models predict development, with a track taking 92L into Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. On this track, the southern Dominican Republic can expect heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches today through Monday morning; southern Haiti can expect similar rains tonight through Monday night, and Jamaica and the Cayman Islands can expect heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches Monday and Tuesday. Eastern Cuba can expect rains in the 2 - 4 inch range. Once 92L crosses the Yucatan, the ridge of high pressure steering it is expected to remain in place, forcing 92L to a second landfall in Mexico south of the Texas border.
Intensity forecast for 92L
NHC is putting the odds of 92L developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday at 50%; I'd put them higher, at 70%. However, time is running out for 92L to become a hurricane before hitting the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. Given the current disorganized state of 92L, it would be difficult for it to intensify quickly enough to become a hurricane by then. The storm may also suffer another of its mysterious evening collapses, where it loses most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. However, the SHIPS model predicts wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, through the period, and water temperatures are certainly warm enough to support development. The main detriment to intensification is likely to be dry air, and 92L could wrap in some of the dry air to its northwest at times, slowing down development. There are a number of research flights being made into 92L this afternoon that should help long-term efforts to make better predictions in the future on whether or not disturbances like this will develop or not.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Igor.
Igor
Hurricane Igor appears destined to become a large and powerful major hurricane over the Central Atlantic in the days to come. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is expected to drop below 5 knots for the next five days. Waters are warm, 28°C, and will warm to 29°C by Wednesday. Igor has moistened its environment enough to keep the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) at bay. Igor is undergoing a period of rapid intensification today, and will probably be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane by Monday.
The track forecast for Igor remains unchanged. Igor will move west under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure for the next 2 - 3 days, then turn more to the west-northwest then northwest in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. This should allow Igor to pass several hundred miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. In the longer range, Igor may be a threat to Bermuda, and does have a small chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast or Canada. Climatology shows that about 15% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are about 10% for Bermuda and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the period 5 - 12 days from now from the ECMWF and GFS models shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas. Recent runs of the ECMWF model indicate that these troughs may not be as intense as previously thought, so it is possible Igor has a higher chance than usual to hit land than climatology suggests. One wild card may be the possible development of TD 12 behind Igor. If TD 12 develops into a hurricane, and moves close to Igor, as some of the models are suggesting, the two hurricanes could rotate around a common center, forcing Igor more towards the coast of the U.S. The long term fate of Igor is difficult to predict at this point.
Tropical Depression Twelve forms
Tropical Depression Twelve formed between the Cape Verdes Islands and coast of Africa this morning, and is already affecting the Cape Verdes with winds near tropical storm strength; sustained winds of 35 mph were recorded in the northwest Cape Verdes this morning. You can follow the progress of TD 12 through the Cape Verdes today using our wundermap.
Next post
I'll have a new post Monday morning, and perhaps late this afternoon if events warrant.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Could storm impacts be "delayed but not denied" just like the active season that was widely questioned back in August? Unfortunately, a lot of potential for that!
lol I think he is speaking of this donut....
Left of the "High Seas"
Kinda looks like a Cat 5 IMO.
What exactly is this blob doing?
I'm very thankful that it hasn't developed but I really wish it would just disipate already. I know that's not likely to happen but can't stand the wishy-washy systems... I'm a low, I'm a low. I'm going away. I'm a low, I'm almost a depression, no wait a minute, changed my mind, I'm a low, no I'm a wave.... on and on and on... Yes I know... that's the weather folks, unpredictable...
Isn't that Felix 2007 you posted? I am really good at memorizing storm images of storms I have recorded, freaks myself out.
Is that Felix 2007?
Correct it was a really nice looking storm..
LOL! I hate 92L too! Make up your mind, and quit reading shakespeare "to be or not to be, that is the question." From now on, I am classifying disturbances like 92L as Shakesperean tropical disturbances.
Excellent post
The last NHC update had it at 20 NMI.
Yep, in my experience, October=Wilma. Nasty storm!
Thanks MiamiHurricane09!
92L in June: We were all sure that was going to develop, it was an impressive African tropical wave that was sure to become one of the farthest east June tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. But then, it kept deciding not to develop, and when it finally got around to developing deep convection, it got sheared apart.
92L in July: tropical wave fragment leftover from the wave that became Colin. After finally organizing in the western Caribbean, landfall with Yucatan and Mexico killed it.
92L in September (today): Once again, we are sure it should develop, but it decides to be wishy-washy, and won't develop. Will the curse of 92L hold?
E X C E L L E N T!
:)
Jun-1
Jul-1
Aug-4
Sep-4 [and counting, maybe as many as 4 more]
Oct- [another 4?]
Nov- [1 or 2?]
[Dec- anything is possible with the late start]
Currently we are at 10-4-3, with another 8 - 10 NS not out of the running, at least potentially. If we have a couple more CV storms before that part of the season ends, we may see the 200+ ACE after all.
Hmmmm....
Proof? That's a very bold statement. There's a chance for anything right now.
If we get 8 storms in September, that'll tie the record as the most September storms for the Atlantic, tying with 1998, 2002, and 2007.
bet they think about it.
Its like, water too hot, ouch, ooh, getting burned, help me! Hey, maybe tropical systems don't like touching hot water just like humans don't like to put their hand on a burning stove!
Just Kidding. I really want to know why 92L hasn't developed yet. I am glad it hasn't, but I am always a "why" person, I want explanations.
The "weakest" part of the storm would be enough to make a 115 knot storm if it went the whole way around. Also the southern eyewall has cooled recently. Igor is most of the way to the "Pink Ring of Devastation" on WU IR.
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