Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting KanKunKid:


Look at the Dvorak. I would say it needs more organization. Maybe by tomorrow TD.

Quoting dracko19:
For those of you who think the GULF is safe from storms this year, take a look at the GFS map for Sep 28.



It shows a large and powerful Hurricane building right outside Texas. Now, keep in mind, this is 2 weeks off and they chances of it being right are about 50/50 at best. Still, I wouldn't relax if I lived on the Gulf. ALWAYS pay attention to what is happening with the weather if you live down there this time of year.

Quoting RecordSeason:
4180:

Man you are hard headed.

The STORM has it's position defined by the center point of the eye.

You admit the northern eye-wall moved south and continues to do so, while you also claim the southern eyewall did not move north.

therefore, the mid-point between the eye-walls MUST have moved south.

By definition, the STORM moved south equal to the center of the eye, which in this case is 0.15 degrees and increasing.

Quoting RecordSeason:
4180:

Man you are hard headed.

The STORM has it's position defined by the center point of the eye.

You admit the northern eye-wall moved south and continues to do so, while you also claim the southern eyewall did not move north.

therefore, the mid-point between the eye-walls MUST have moved south.

By definition, the STORM moved south equal to the center of the eye, which in this case is 0.15 degrees and increasing.

Quoting RecordSeason:
4180:

Man you are hard headed.

The STORM has it's position defined by the center point of the eye.

You admit the northern eye-wall moved south and continues to do so, while you also claim the southern eyewall did not move north.

therefore, the mid-point between the eye-walls MUST have moved south.

By definition, the STORM moved south equal to the center of the eye, which in this case is 0.15 degrees and increasing.

Quoting RecordSeason:
4180:

Man you are hard headed.

The STORM has it's position defined by the center point of the eye.

You admit the northern eye-wall moved south and continues to do so, while you also claim the southern eyewall did not move north.

therefore, the mid-point between the eye-walls MUST have moved south.

By definition, the STORM moved south equal to the center of the eye, which in this case is 0.15 degrees and increasing.

Quoting barotropic:


Igor at 17.7 Notice the location of south eyewall and north eyewall



5 hrs later South eyewall remains exact same location North begins to drop



3 hrs later South eyewall still same latitude, while north wall comes south (contracting inward)



Two hours later, Igor at 17.6N - N eyewall dropped (contracted in) near 2 tenths of degree. S eyewall...exact same as 10+ hours earlier.


Last night amid pages and pages of comments that Igor was possibly begining to move south of west, I made a simple comment. "Igor was not moving south at all, as he was loosing his annular "look", his N eyewall was pulling in south, giving the illusion that he was jogging south". What a mistake. Some nasty comments came about and a comment or 2 about my "nautical ability" to note headings was made. My comment was simple and easy to understand - but the reaction was NASTY. So here is the "proof" I see required on here so much. Igor never moved south last night at all. As a matter of fact, the south eyewall moved along 17.5 for near 10 hours as if it were on "rails". THE PICTURES DONT LIE. The only thing that moved south was the north eyewall (contracting inward), not the storm. The storm heading remained exactly the same with a location drop (center point between the two walls) from 17.7 N to 17.6N over the near 10 hour period. The location dropped a tenth because the N wall dropped 2tenths (as seen above). Hence center point between N and south eyewall net a drop of a tenth of a degree. There was such a desire for some to see a south movement that my point was slammed bigtime. I didnt make a big deal about my comment, others did. So there (above) is the proof.......

Quoting Kristina40:
I think I speak for the majority here, it would be nice if people left their political baggage at the door. We have a Cat 4 Hurricane and several other areas of interest to watch and discuss on this TROPICAL WEATHER blog, if you really must discuss politics go to a political blog.

Quoting Kristina40:
I think I speak for the majority here, it would be nice if people left their political baggage at the door. We have a Cat 4 Hurricane and several other areas of interest to watch and discuss on this TROPICAL WEATHER blog, if you really must discuss politics go to a political blog.

Quoting dracko19:
For those of you who think the GULF is safe from storms this year, take a look at the GFS map for Sep 28.



It shows a large and powerful Hurricane building right outside Texas. Now, keep in mind, this is 2 weeks off and they chances of it being right are about 50/50 at best. Still, I wouldn't relax if I lived on the Gulf. ALWAYS pay attention to what is happening with the weather if you live down there this time of year.

Quoting dracko19:
For those of you who think the GULF is safe from storms this year, take a look at the GFS map for Sep 28.



It shows a large and powerful Hurricane building right outside Texas. Now, keep in mind, this is 2 weeks off and they chances of it being right are about 50/50 at best. Still, I wouldn't relax if I lived on the Gulf. ALWAYS pay attention to what is happening with the weather if you live down there this time of year.

Quoting Skyepony:
Today's the big day..Igor is suppose to take the weakness & end up near or over Bermuda.. We'll see, still a little left of models & offical. Overall the models have shown improvement over the last 24hrs with Igor. CMC still has a commanding lead with 48nm error in the last 24hrs AVNO follows with 53, the rest follow with 70nm error or more for the last 24hrs..


Little more south & I think we could improve the odds for Igor to be a cat 5.. Lets hope he's not attracted by warm water:)


92L~ I could see being a TD or TS by Yucatan, strengthen in the BOC & hit this years popular spot in North Mexico.

Quoting Kristina40:
I think I speak for the majority here, it would be nice if people left their political baggage at the door. We have a Cat 4 Hurricane and several other areas of interest to watch and discuss on this TROPICAL WEATHER blog, if you really must discuss politics go to a political blog.

Quoting Neapolitan:
FWIW, Igor's ACE is already higher than 18 of 2005's named storms, and by tomorrow alone it'll be higher than 22 of 2005's. (As I've mentioned previously, ACE for this year's Danielle is higher than all but three of 2005's storms, while Earl's is higher than all but two).

So, yes, long-track CV storms add a lot to ACE totals...though it should be noted that of the six most powerful 2005 storms--Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Ophelia, Rita and Emily--none were CV-type storms.

Quoting help4u:
Already turning north according to twc can we move on from the west casting now.

Quoting RecordSeason:
4200:

Actually, the only thing it "prooves" is that neither he nor you know anything about geometry or algebra, specifically mid-point theorem...

Quoting dracko19:
For those of you who think the GULF is safe from storms this year, take a look at the GFS map for Sep 28.



It shows a large and powerful Hurricane building right outside Texas. Now, keep in mind, this is 2 weeks off and they chances of it being right are about 50/50 at best. Still, I wouldn't relax if I lived on the Gulf. ALWAYS pay attention to what is happening with the weather if you live down there this time of year.

Quoting PanhandleChuck:


+1

Quoting originalLT:
Post #4180, very nice proof!