Gaston still a threat to redevelop
For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.
Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.
Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.
Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.
Jeff Masters
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (
RIWXPhoto)
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Check the Animate box
I agree..most cyclogenisis that becomes a problem for us in the North gulf develops further east in BOC...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2010
CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
SE FLOW IS AT 15-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND E AT
15-20 KT THROUGH THE SRN CARIB W OF 70W AND ALONG N COAST OF
COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH SUN...THEN PRES GRADIENT
WILL RELAX SOME OVER THE S CENTRAL WATERS AND SPREADING W TO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS ON WED NIGHT INTO THU. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS REMNANTS OF GASTON ARE EXPECTED TO
REGENERATE AND TRACK W ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ALONG 17N.
ALTHOUGH TC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EVENTUAL HURRICANE
STRENGTH...INGESTION OF SAL WITHIN THE CORE CIRCULATION HAS
INHIBITED WIDESPREAD AND LONG LIVED CNVTN PAST FEW DAYS.
CURRENTLY CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MAKING A COMEBACK NEAR THE
CENTER OF THIS LOW...AND IT IT PERSISTS LONG ENOUGH THE SYSTEM
COULD BE QUICKLY UPGRADED. HAVE CONTINUED TO MOVE TROPICAL LOW W
ACCOMPANIED BY CYCLONIC WINDS OF 20-30 KT AND SEAS 8-12 FT. PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND THUS WIND AND SEAS FORECASTS...OVER
REMAINDER OF AREA VERY DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS
TROPICAL LOW...SO EXPECT A LOT OF TWEAKING IN EACH FORECAST
PACKAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TILL WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
REMNANTS OF GASTON.
Lots of thunder at my house. Big time T Storms just South of my location (S. Fort Myers)
Yeah I don't know why there isn't an official Cloudsat fan club.
Gaston has a pretty strong ULL set up to his WNW. Looks like it is beginning to try & send some moisture back to him from South America. Moisture should get a little better ~57-60W. So far he has a respectable distance~ taking advantage of the low shear pockets that usually is to the SSE-E of an ULL without being hindered by it. Okay upper divergence, lacks lower convergence. I'd say due to the lack of lift lended by the MJO. 90L has great convergence & has found favor with the MJO.. 90L may also have the beginnings of an anticyclone which would greatly increase it's odds of pulling together, where Gaston at the moment does not. 90L might be more happening in the next 2 days but still wouldn't discount Gaston.
Franklin 39°F
Morganton 44°F
Andrews 44°F
Reidsville 47°F
Roxboro 48°F
We should have one more cool day before the lows and highs see an increase by 10degrees in a few days.
What's your forecast for Gaston? I live in PR. so in terms of PR.
Got to see if that new area of convection has maxed out and will start to weaken or if it will grow and strengthen, I'm starting to feel annoyed with Ex-Gaston. :\
I'm not convinced he'll even form today.
He hasn't played nice over the past few days.
At this point I think we will see it stay Gaston & not be renumbered. The remnant never mixed with any other T-waves, short waves, troughs or the such.
TAFB: 2.0
SAB: 1.5
WTNT21 KNGU 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN NORFOLK VA//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.4N 94.9W TO 22.8N 98.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. RMKS: AT 06/1500Z, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED
NEAR 20.4N 94.9W AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
MODELS ARE SHOWING INTENSIFICATION OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT 24HRS.
THERE IS CURRENTLY WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE DISTURBANCE.
THIS IN CONJUCTION WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 83 TO 86
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT AND MOVEMENT INTO A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
HELP TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE BY 061500Z AUG 2010.//
???
Didn't they issue it a few hours ago or did you just notice it?
I guess i'm just noticing lol
the models are still running on Ex-Gaston
I posted the tracks below
LOOK OUT ROBB
where do you see this?
that's what i heard.
catloop
'the disorganized crap' is getting larger.
I'm expecting this to shift East tonight
How far East?? Central TX might want to keep an eye on this just in case though
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TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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