The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm
A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.
The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.
Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.
The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).
Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.
Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.
Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.
Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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LMAO JEFF
All the people who actually know what they're talking about are refusing to predict the path 7 days from now because it foolish to do so.
It's fun.
Not even close to being the same. Recurve is a verb meaning to curve or bend something backward. Where TCs are concerned, recurvation occurs when a westbound storm is picked up and flung "back" to the northeast. OTOH, irregardless is an outdated, internally-redundant, and "humorous" portmanteau of irrespective and regardless that means the same thing as, well, regardless.
So there you have it: recurve is scientific; irregardless is just silly.
Absolutely not, you know how this blog can be? No patience whatsoever. It is either with the season being too slow for them or wanting to call a storm a Fish before it has even developed
Many don't seem to enjoy the tracking of the storm and watching it form, they just want to label it before it even forms. To be honest it takes a lot away from those who want to seriously track a storm and learn about how they form and what forces systems to move the way they do.
I love all of the arguing over path and models... All of which aren't worth anything until a storm actually forms... So what's the point???
Plus, if you argue over something that never really happens, you can't be wrong!
better get some tums with that lunch. :)
I knew that somehow this discussion would recurve back to GW. ;)
good point
Someone finally gets it, good post
Don't waste your breath, the long range model worshippers are unflappable....
NOTHING IS SET IN STONE
I thought long-range models are garbage. :)
they are only garbage when they show 3 or 4 storms, but when they only show 1 or none; then they are to be trusted
*rolls eyes*
Ha!
I've never said that.
Sure there is:
Epitahhs,
Survey data
Pharao's faces
To-be Danielle is still forecast to recurve into the North Atlantic = fish storm.
*snicker*
You add alot of humor to the blog, that's awesome!
Did anyone notice the vorticity on all levels for this system leaving the coast? 850, 500, 250 - all layers are very strong.
Sadly it is pretty obvious that some put too much stock in the models. They are a tool that can give us a look into the future. It doesn't mean what they show will or will not happen. Can they be right? Of course, but all they are is a tool more than anything.
Also to only show the models when they do not show much activity is being fairly ignorant as well.
You hit the nail on the head.
So are smart (you know what) comments.....
JP - 1
IKE - 1
DestinJeff - 3
Reed 11 all the same
Oh well...if the GFS is correct, everyone on here gets their wish...a powerful cane that bothers no one.
you said it not me lol
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