The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm
A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.
The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.
Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.
The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).
Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.
Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.
Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.
Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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low pressures anomalies
Evening Grothar, long time no see.
anyway dont know nothing about the ballons at sea but i do no if you input data and its incorrect it will throw off all other varibals at the end of the day
Definitely not too far east.
Bertha in 2008 was tagged an invest a few hours after it emerged from Africa.
I see that the pre invest agony continues.
This one looks like it will make Invest status tomorrow if it persists. The NHC are probably waiting for it to pull away from the coast and establish some longevity as it begins the trek to the West. Convection is not concentrated but the 850 mb vorticity looks good.
If the system does not die down tonight I think it stands a fair chance of becoming a TD in 48 hrs. The buoy nearest its current location has been showing W and WSW winds for some time now and relatively low surface pressure.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS.
CURRENTLY...THE CYCLONE IS SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUT
UNANIMOUSLY...ALL GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE RIDGE AS A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 3 DAYS. BECAUSE OF CONTINUITY...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IT IS
STILL TO THE LEFT OF THE GFDL AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS. MOST LIKELY
THE TRACK HAS TO BE ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT LATER TODAY IF MODELS
INSIST ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC TROUGH. AT THIS
TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND AVAILABLE TRACK MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD WELL-EAST OT THE LESSER
ANTILLES IN 4 OR 5 DAYS.
Sounds familiar to me on what the models are showing, it's really all on the timing, if the ridge can build back in time to catch the storm.
Ooh. what a purty swirly thingy in the middle of the country. :P
No worries, ask politely to be removed from the ignore lists and be cool. Most will comply...as long as you do.
Not as bad as a few days ago. You can see from the image below that there is moisture out ahead of the system for quite some distance.
models point to landfall in the USA...people post doom and gloom and "hope" it does not verify and the models are GOD and 100% right.
models point to early fish...models are junk! dont believe them!
Err, this may be a TD in 48 hours!
who is Mark Sudduth thats twice i saw that name here today
I respectfully disagree but there is always that chance. NHC only has it at 20% for next 48hours. They tend not to just jump up that fast. I would look at around 72 to 96 hours for TD. It def is still looking good and getting better each day. things just take time.
That's because it has been slow for August out in the basin. That is changing though and by the end of the weekend and going into next week I think there will be something to track.
Another major factor is how strong a system it will become, right now the assumption is it will form early, and intensify fairly quick .. anyones guess right now.
08 19 1600 11.47 -22.99 WSW 15 - 29.78 - - 82.8
08 19 1400 11.46 -23.00 W 12 - 29.82 - - 82.9
08 19 1100 11.46 -22.99 WSW 19 - 29.85 - - 82.9
08 19 0800 11.46 -23.00 WSW 21 - 29.79 - - 82.9
08 19 0500 11.46 -22.99 WSW 20 - 29.79 - - 83.1
08 19 0300 11.46 -22.99 W 22 - 29.80 - - 83.1
08 18 2100 11.47 -23.01 WNW 16 - 29.85 - - 83.3
08 18 1700 11.47 -23.01 WSW 18 - 29.83 - - 83.3
08 18 1600 11.47 -23.00
Intensity of the system can help weaken the ridge hence affect the track. The stronger the storm the more it slows down as well allowing the ridge to adjust. So indirectly the intensity does affect it because of how it affects the ridge. A low will not cross over a ridge. it is like running into a wall.
Short term ( 24 hrs )the feature will head due West. After that who knows. Depends on too many unknowns.
Very true DoubleAction...everyone has seen this seasons storms have had a rough time getting started, and we all know the weaker it is the farther west it will go. So you are right, and we will just have to sit back and wait to see what she does. (assuming she becomes Danielle)
Cool, that is why I love weather. The debate and competition. A real test of skill. Time will tell which one pans out.
LOL!!!
Computer models are off by several hundred miles 5 days out. I have been seeing a lot bloggers on here posting the long-range models for a system that has not yet formed - good luck on that one.
but alas I thought this was a FISH storm for sure?
you are telling me that may not be the case? *dies of shock*
I do not think I said this was a Fish storm for sure. I actually think this is the first time I posted about this wave. Been way to busy at work last 7 days to post. I do not like to take decent looking waves and predict a track this far out. I do try and forecast chances of formation this far out. Looking ahead I think this could easily be at least a Cat 3 hurricane but still too early to tell. Formation at some point is high but at the moment no idea where it is going.
I don't either, I was more commenting because several people on here are calling this a fish storm already
LOL your videos are funny! they come with free music. It would be cool if "Alejandro" were the name of our next Storm
It happens but rare. The position of it opens up the LA, MS and AL. Hoping it moves out.
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