The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm
A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.
The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.
Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.
The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).
Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.
Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.
Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.
Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 — Blog Index
Maybe not, but I'll try. What I mean is if one looks at a model run, does not the model take all components into consideration as to track, speed, size, etc? So, one can't pick and choose different elements of any one model run. Take it all as a whole in other words.
I have all the respect in the world for StormW, been reading his forcasts for years and find them invaluble. I didn't dissagre with him.
A week from now, according to the GFS and ECMWF, this will be heading to the north Atlantic.
that's cool
in RUSSIAN... where did you get that?
They are just one of the tools one can look at, I do not believe the models saw the shear coming on TD5...
National Weather Service New Orleans la
358 PM CDT Thursday Aug 19 2010
Synopsis...
latest surface analysis showed the 1016mb high over the central
and eastern Gulf...southwest flow over north Gulf and north
central Gulf Coast...and stationary boundary over middle south to middle
Atlantic coast. Upper air analysis showed an anticyclonic
circulation over Arkansas and another North Florida...creating a
moisture convergence zone from southwest Louisiana to the
Carolinas. Cyclonic circulation associated with the decayed
tropical system has move north of the forecast area. However...precipitable water
values remain around 2.4 inches.
&&
Discussion...
with cyclonic circulation associated with the remnants of
Tropical Depression Five well north of the forecast area...the
threat of deep night time convection has decreased inland. Last
several nights only showers have developed in the early morning
hours. Ergo...rain chances will be slightly lower ... still a
chance in the evening. Radar estimates from Wednesday showed 6 to
8 inches of rainfall across extreme western Wilkinson County and
northern Pointe Coupee Parish. High precipitable water values and deep moisture
will still yield isolated showers inland after midnight toward
Friday morning. Drying occurred to today but excessive runoff is
possible with any storm for the remainder of the afternoon. In
addition...late afternoon storms with a slow movement will be a
problem over rain soaked areas. Ergo...will allow Flash Flood
Watch to expire at 7 PM this evening. Middle layer anticyclonic flow
or high over Florida will build and move west over the Gulf Coast
region. Some relatively middle layer dry...over the central Caribbean
and east of the wave...will advect northwest to the central Gulf
Friday and over southern zones Friday night. This could curtail
rain chances over the coastal waters and southern zones Friday
night into Saturday. High will continue to track northwest over
Texas and allow the old boundary and associated moisture to sag
south to North Florida. We could establish Montgomery stream
functions and track this air mass with Theta-E values to see if
this next system is associated with the remnants...but will leave
that to researchers. A weak inverted trough or weak low over
northeast Gulf Monday and track west across the north Gulf through
Wednesday. Have increased rain chances up to 50 percent each day
next week. Later packages may increase increase rain chances to
likely Tuesday through Friday of next week.
clarification: maybe at 60w not maybe after 60w
1995 the most memorable of them.
I have a source,,REUTERS wire.
And babelfish
No, its and area in the EPAC.
He wanted to know why it wasn't an invest.
Oh no! big Russian bother.......LOL,,, So Pat, you jumping on the long range forcast?
Till then,..I fish a lot.
Thanks and thanks for understanding what I was trying to state.
saludos!
ah yea looking at that I am kind of wondering the same thing
agreed
as I said before, formation in the short team is something that is much more believable than any sort of track in the long term
Did someone hit the anemometer with with a leaf blower?
Catch any reds?
We can get a bit hypersensitive, at time. After all, "it's just a blog".... ok, the best-goshdarned little blog on the wx internet... but still....
Twas a Portlight day for me.
But the weekend approaches fast!!
\
Was, voher commen sie?
Viewing: 1051 - 1101
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 — Blog Index