The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm
A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.
The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.
Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.
The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).
Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.
Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.
Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.
Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Love them Beach Boys!
Why we can to see this to be classified as an invest when it is so far from any land area???
Looks rather Omega-ish to me which usually produces a very sharp digging trough along the east coast. Now granted its August, but looks believable with that low over Hudson Bay.
So then both models are showing a scenerio you don't deem likely.
With an Omega Block, you at least have a very strong ridge. A strong ridge is not depicted by the models over the United States.
We will get drenched...
is my first post using my new driodx!!
They would classify it so they can use the hurricane models on it.
Gracias.
That area of disturbed weather near and to the west of you has really expanded and slowed its pace. 850mb vorticity has increased throughout the day and it might try to organize slightly before heading into the Yucatan. It might have more of a chance on the other side.
wow you must not know what an average hurricane season is, average seasons as of now would be on the 3rd named storm; we are currently average
add to that fact that La Nina seasons notoriously start late, end late and are above average and you get the picture.
Thats the East Pacific
Hence the "ish" with the Omega. Agree, not a true Omega, but with trough that is being shown on GFS and Euro, you don't need a strong ridge, the digging trough will help to amplify both sides.
YW. I hope this system stays out to sea, and not over our lovely islands...
GOOD!!
Not really....... Things don't ramp up usually until after mid august.....
Just look at the '98 season for example
No storms in June
1 storm in July
The next storm only formed around Aug 21
The season ended with
14 named storms
10 Hurricanes
3 Major canes
Over 11,000 deaths
18zz
Average formation of the 3rd storm is August 13th
Average formation of the 4th storm is August 23rd
Also I bet if a table was created to show formation for La Nina seasons; it would show a sharp increase of activity after this date and more storms forming than just the average
An Average season has only 7 more storms form between now and November 30th.
Big Brother? As in the charity Big Brother? Why would you think they need to record your voice?
dont get him started
Mitch 1998, along with Andrew 1992, were some of the worst hurricanes of the 1990's decade.
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