The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm
A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.
The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.
Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.
The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).
Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.
Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.
Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.
Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I'm also starting to think that if this system ends up being big enough, NE Car will get effects, landfall or no landfall.
But we shall see.
I'm out for a while. Will check in later to see what's happening with our modest gestating system...
Also the tutt is helping push the SAL out faster from the area and if you look east the SAL really diminishes for the antilles
No...that's from 2 days ago....here it is...Link
now that is right
I wish they would declare it an invest soon so we could get some model runs on this and have a general idea of where this may go.
I dont really like the GFS track so far. Doesn't add up.
the ridge that is set up, along with what the fact the ridge is forecasted to shift westward; does not support the track the GFS shows
Exactly.
Now that's pretty funny!
24 hr
The Hurricane Tropical Winds map shows high level (about 40,000 feet) wind speed and direction over the Atlantic Ocean.
48 hr
72 hr
Why? Storms won't affect something 5000' down.
They have shut to well off before with no leaks. I'm not even sure anymore what the status is now that the media is not screaming about it. Are they collecting or is it shut off right now?
It's been capped since 7-18; the static kill worked but they want to do a further bottom kill to ensure it's stopped. At this point, no oil is leaking from the seabed, though I hear a great deal just washed up at Orange Beach Al from the original leak
216 hour frame...
240 hour frame...
You have data on overdoing the amplification of troughs? Link?
Check on the back of your coffee maker. It might surprise you. Some of those "little drip coffee makers" are 1400 Watts!
that not only has it moving west
You're not kidding. That heating element in a drip maker eats up about 1200 watts. I'm serious, I have an old percolator that you put on the stove. I used to use on camp outs and such when I was young, and believe it or not, it makes a really great pot of coffee....if you don't over perc it.
how about years of the GFS overamplifying troughs, it is infamous for it
LOL I know we did that. My BF said D*** that thing uses more power than the fridge. It was funny.
Exactly. If the initialization is off the whole run is off.
At any rate, it should be an invest within the next 12-24 hours.
Yes but then a Large Low develops off the coast from a cold front that just passed over the east coast putting a weakness in the ridge which creates a weakness and the higher pressures retreat East. If you trust the model enough to develop the storm why don't you trust the model to predict where it will go?
LOOK at the where the 1016MB line is in the surface forecast. At a minimum it will climb North to that line rapidly and the stronger it is the faster it will go north. It is not just the fact the ridge exists it is how strong it is as well.
Thats current data, what will it be in 7 days.
Someone on here already said French Press - I strongly second that motion, and actually have a French Press in my hurricane box. Now if only I could find a manual grinder for my whole beans...
because they are much better at showing development in the short term (which is where we are now with this system), then they are at showing tracks in the long term
I see that posted here, but no one so far has been able to produce actual data.
I love Dr. Bill. I took his 3 quarter meteorology series at S. Alabama back in 92.
those were some fun classes. He's heading up a full blown Meteorology degree program out at South now.
We are monitoring closely a large area of clouds, rain and thunderstorms mostly just south of the Cape Verde Islands. We don't see a lower level feature forming yet. However, satellite motion shows clouds associated with this system are turning counter clockwise suggesting at least some mid level rotation. Upper level winds,lower level winds and the overall atmosphere are favorable for further organization. We believe there is a good chance this feature will gradually become an organized tropical system within the next day or two and could become the next tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Basin this weekend. The movement of this system will be highly dependent on where a low level feature forms. Computer forecasts are suggesting formation will start to take place over the next 24-36 hours around 12 north, 30 west. The large high pressure area in the Atlantic has been slowly working eastward during the past couple of days and this trend should continue. This suggests this system will move westward for a few days then gradually turn more northwestward next week. The future path of this system remains highly uncertain until a low level feature forms.
well first of all train is allready out of the station second of all watching if a storm will form is half the battle and third like storm said watch what you wish for
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