The Atlantic is quiet; Pakistan monsoon rains continue; last day of Russian heat wave
A tropical wave in the Caribbean near Jamaica is generating disorganized thunderstorm activity over the central Caribbean. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west of Jamaica that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave.
The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands 3 - 7 days from now. A strong tropical wave currently moving off the coast of Africa is a good candidate for such a development. The NOGAPS model is predicting the development of a strong tropical disturbance near the coast of Honduras this weekend.
Figure 1. Extreme flooding along the Indus River in Pakistan has swollen the river to 16 miles (24 km) wide in sections, as seen in the top image from yesterday. For comparison, and image taken a year ago at this time in August (bottom image) shows that the Indus is normally just 1 - 2 km wide during monsoon season. Image credit: NASA Natural Hazards web site.
Extreme flooding and monsoon rains continue in Pakistan
In flood-ravaged Pakistan, heavy monsoon rains hit the Punjab region in the northeastern portion of the country yesterday, dropping up to 113 mm (4.45") of precipitation. The main river in Pakistan, the Indus, continues to cause extreme flooding, and has expanded to 16 miles (24 km) wide in some sections (Figure 1.) Dr. Ricky Rood, who writes our Climate Change Blog, has a sister that works in Pakistan. He has a must-read analysis of the catastrophe in Pakistan, "Pakistan: A Climate Disaster Case Study".
Moscow hits 93°F on the final day of the Great Russia Heat Wave of 2010
Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 34°C (93°F) today, which is 13°C (22°F) above average. However, pressures are falling rapidly and winds are picking up out ouf the southwest in advance of a powerful cold front that promises to sweep through all of European Russia tonight, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. The latest forecast for Moscow predicts Thursday's high will be just 21°C (69°F)--essentially average. With tonight's cold front will come rain to help put out the fires that continue to plague Russia with toxic smoke. Cool temperatures near of below average over the coming week will also help fire-fighting efforts.
Jeff Masters
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He said severe cold, not cold.
I agree here! how can anyone predict something to be a fish or a U.S. hit when nothing has formed yet? and even at that, if something does form and the NHC gives it 5 day projection, doesn't mean nothing, because I've seen storms change track, slow down or dissipate. You really don't know where a storm will head anymore. These storms can strike anywhere at anytime.jmo
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You can email WunderBlogAdmin or JeffMasters himself. You'd probably be better off emailing WunderBlogAdmin about a problem, because, well, thats his job.
This is birthday-casting at its absolute worst.
Thank you.
That too.
I'm gonna feel sorry for you this winter while its all nice and warmish here, and you freezing to death!
30W _N ???
Seems a little too high...
Mark Mancuso is with Accuweather? Didn't he used to be a TWC on-air met?
LOL
hi, can you please tell me where you see this info about a storm forming on the west coast of florida? do you have a link or something? do the models make this a big storm? thanks.
He got laid off from TWC and went back to Pa.
Heh. :) It's Wotan (Odin), my normal nom-de-net. Presumably. it was already taken when I signed up.
Here's the full-size image:
Wotan
Great Odin's Raven! Brick you should probably lay low for a while...
Back before the internet though that was really the only source of tropical weather news. Of course, John Hope was alive then.
Yes. But that's JB through and through. If the temps turn out to be average or above in Alaska/Canada, he'll say. "Well, even average there is pretty severe compared to the rest of the world", and he'll use that bit of logic to point out that he was right. If, on the other hand, there are a couple of cold snaps in the same region, he'll say, "See? I nailed it!".
The point is, JB is a consummate back-caster, and his use of weasel words such severe without defining exactly what constitutes severe allows him to do that almost with impunity for his gullible fans.
Here, allow me to be JB: I predict some severe snowfalls in the Rockies this winter, followed by some extreme heat in the Sahara next July. In between now and then, I think we can expect to see some severe frosts in the northern hemisphere, and some extreme rains in the tropics.
Now, once I'm proven right--which I will be--can I become Accuweather's new Chief Meteorologist and Blowhard-In-Residence? ;-)
fish
Yeah it is about time I hit the lake. Haven't been in ages.
Do you have a link to this run?
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