Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting clwstmchasr:


I need the edited version.

Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
its going out to sea

Quoting hurricanefiend85:
Great Video Blog as usual today Levi!

Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
its going out to sea

Quoting swlavp:
Which is it? Always, or 90%?

Quoting canehater1:


When I look at long range model forecasts, I first look for the development then the latitude..the timing isn't there at 120 hrs +
due to unforeseen influences (like the NE shear on ex-5 that wasn't even seen 24-48 hrs out!)

Quoting Levi32:
Neither landfall nor recurvature out to sea can be ruled out at this point. There are two facts battling each other here. Firstly, the majority of all Cape Verde storms, since they develop early, end up recurving out to sea. But secondly, but pattern developing over North America is one that is a classic signature of all big US landfall seasons. The models are going back and forth on the track and that is to be expected before the system has formed, but one must be looking out for trouble threatening the eastern seaboard during the final week of August. The pattern says there should be a storm, and possibly one that threatens land. We should be ready for that possibility as the pattern has been warning us for a while now.

Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
384 hrs its way to long to tell where a hurricane is going..

Quoting TheDawnAwakening2:


Sorry about that. I didn't want to mess up my thoughts while it was all coming out at once so I just wrote it up like that. I will try and do a better job of breaking it up.

Quoting Levi32:
Neither landfall nor recurvature out to sea can be ruled out at this point. There are two facts battling each other here. Firstly, the majority of all Cape Verde storms, since they develop early, end up recurving out to sea. But secondly, the pattern developing over North America is one that is a classic signature of all big US landfall seasons. The models are going back and forth on the track and that is to be expected before the system has formed, but one must be looking out for trouble threatening the eastern seaboard during the final week of August. The pattern says there should be a storm, and possibly one that threatens land. We should be ready for that possibility as the pattern has been warning us for a while now. If it recurves, that's great, but it also may try to come all the way west.

Quoting Levi32:
Neither landfall nor recurvature out to sea can be ruled out at this point. There are two facts battling each other here. Firstly, the majority of all Cape Verde storms, since they develop early, end up recurving out to sea. But secondly, the pattern developing over North America is one that is a classic signature of all big US landfall seasons. The models are going back and forth on the track and that is to be expected before the system has formed, but one must be looking out for trouble threatening the eastern seaboard during the final week of August. The pattern says there should be a storm, and possibly one that threatens land. We should be ready for that possibility as the pattern has been warning us for a while now. If it recurves, that's great, but it also may try to come all the way west.

Quoting DestinJeff:
"Beware the Ides of Next Week" says this model:

Quoting GainesvilleGator:
For any wave exiting Africa, the models may show it hitting Miami and it recurves East of Bermuda. It may show a fish storm that ultimately enters the GOM. The margin of error is pretty high take it that said tropical system even develops.

Quoting DestinJeff:
"Beware the Ides of Next Week" says this model:

Quoting DestinJeff:


doesn't need to go past 144 to see what is happening.

Quoting CaribBoy:
Situation over the atlantic for the next few days remains unclear. Something should form, but where and when is hard to determine with precision. In addition, we cannot trust models regarding potential tracks. 180h+ is far away. It's still too early to say whether it will go out to sea or make landfall somewhere or even speak about what will the upper atmosphere look like this far out.

Quoting DestinJeff:
My birthday is Augbust 20th.

Think we'll have a TC by then?

Or maybe a wave over Central Africa that should be the one to watch next week as things start to pop and get very intereting in the Atlantic.

Quoting DestinJeff:
My birthday is Augbust 20th.

Think we'll have a TC by then?

Or maybe a wave over Central Africa that should be the one to watch next week as things start to pop and get very intereting in the Atlantic.

Quoting IKE:
12Z CMC...

Quoting DestinJeff:
"Beware the Ides of Next Week" says this model:

Quoting belizewunderfan:
Not a Met. just a fan but i have 2 questions: 1. Is the "tropical disturbance" forcasted by one of the models near Honduras based on the present wave south of Jamaica? 2. Can someone please post an update sattelite image of the Caribbean?

Quoting Neapolitan:


Not likely. The fool doesn't have a shred of integrity. But I tell you, he's sure not afraid to go out on a limb. For instance, look at this bold prediction:

Bastardi predicts severe cold will hit Alaska and western and central Canada.

Oh, no! Does he mean to tell us it will be cold in Alaska and Canada this winter?! That never happens! Stop the presses! Alert the populace!

;-)