The Atlantic is quiet; Pakistan monsoon rains continue; last day of Russian heat wave
A tropical wave in the Caribbean near Jamaica is generating disorganized thunderstorm activity over the central Caribbean. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west of Jamaica that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave.
The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands 3 - 7 days from now. A strong tropical wave currently moving off the coast of Africa is a good candidate for such a development. The NOGAPS model is predicting the development of a strong tropical disturbance near the coast of Honduras this weekend.
Figure 1. Extreme flooding along the Indus River in Pakistan has swollen the river to 16 miles (24 km) wide in sections, as seen in the top image from yesterday. For comparison, and image taken a year ago at this time in August (bottom image) shows that the Indus is normally just 1 - 2 km wide during monsoon season. Image credit: NASA Natural Hazards web site.
Extreme flooding and monsoon rains continue in Pakistan
In flood-ravaged Pakistan, heavy monsoon rains hit the Punjab region in the northeastern portion of the country yesterday, dropping up to 113 mm (4.45") of precipitation. The main river in Pakistan, the Indus, continues to cause extreme flooding, and has expanded to 16 miles (24 km) wide in some sections (Figure 1.) Dr. Ricky Rood, who writes our Climate Change Blog, has a sister that works in Pakistan. He has a must-read analysis of the catastrophe in Pakistan, "Pakistan: A Climate Disaster Case Study".
Moscow hits 93°F on the final day of the Great Russia Heat Wave of 2010
Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 34°C (93°F) today, which is 13°C (22°F) above average. However, pressures are falling rapidly and winds are picking up out ouf the southwest in advance of a powerful cold front that promises to sweep through all of European Russia tonight, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. The latest forecast for Moscow predicts Thursday's high will be just 21°C (69°F)--essentially average. With tonight's cold front will come rain to help put out the fires that continue to plague Russia with toxic smoke. Cool temperatures near of below average over the coming week will also help fire-fighting efforts.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Blog Update:
Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, August 18th, with Video
Good point too. He/she is an oldie, but goodie.
At 114-168 hours.
What else do you want us to look at?
LOL!! That would be me.
I tried a couple of times, but haven't bothered folks with questions like that. (I would rather just post a link than look ignorant.)
I'm here to learn weather, not blogging techniques! :)
My drivers license...my social security card...a debit card....a Winn Dixie card...a Firestone card..and no cash. I don't carry money.
I'm with you! I tried to post an avatar and can't get that right...LOL I will just stick to absorbing info
Yes but over the past 5 days it has leaned more towards an earlier turn northward.
Nope...I stay north of the bay.
Raining here today...78.8 outside.
I was a lurker and now posting more. Last few picture posts have failed. What am I doing wrong? (to prove the previous point) LOL
I'm in the same crowd. I did finally figure out the avatar and was able to post one pic before.
Good day!
So if the 12Z GFS showed landfall would you have been wrong? Way to early to declare that Mr. Fishman
Exactly! What is consistent is the development of a major hurricane with the potential to threaten the East Coast (as well as the northern Lesser Antilles, clip the Greater Antilles, and possibly Bermuda). Development of a second significant storm is becoming more consistent as well.
Not good practice to carry SS card anymore. If you lose your wallet you may lose your identity!
It showed an East Coast storm 12 Hours Before, now it shows a fish storm. 12 hours later it's going to show a Gulf Storm landfall. With the GFS at 12 days out, you can't trust the details. Not to mention, you usually can't trust it 5 daus out....
+1
Oh yes, and Good Afternoon! :)
That's another storm, behing the CV storm.
Summed up perfectly.
+1
We should AT LEAST wait to see if the ECMWF or the CMC verify this. One model does not mean it's going to be a fish storm, jasoniscoolman2010x. Not to say that it's 12 days out still. When I was younger, I always hyped about blizzards on the GFS that were 12 days out. Sadly, they never came true. :(
Thanks! ;)
Source
Next the current Sea Surface Temperature map. Note that most of the non-land area in this image is capable of sustaining tropical cyclones; only those areas in blue and located outside the solid red line are too cool for TCs. The entire Gulf and Caribbean have surface temperatures at or above 32°C (about 90°F), and it's especially warm around Florida, the NW Gulf, and the Bahamas, plus around Cuba and the Windward Islands.
Source
And finally, the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) map. The entire light-blue (and lighter) area bounded by the solid line has a storm-developing potential of at least 70 kJ/cm2, while the rapidly-growing red and pink areas in the Caribbean have a pretty remarkable TCHP of between 110 and 140 kJ/cm2.
Source
Note 1: From Dr. Jeff Masters: "When using the TCHP map, TCHP is not really a good measurement in water that is shallow (less than 50 meters or so). Because TCHP is a function of volume and depth of warm water, TCHP will never appear to be high around coastlines/ocean shelves that are shallow. Remember Charley of 2004 strengthened significantly just offshore of SW FL. [That is,] in a region of low TCHP."
Note 2: most of the Gulf generally sees its maximum SSTs this month, while the northern half of the Caribbean tops out in September. The southern Caribbean and parts of the eastern Atlantic max out in October. (Link)
Quoting TheDawnAwakening2:
End quote.
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