Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
GOOD MORNING EVERYONE

Good morning +1 for the wolf shirt dude

Quoting nishinigami:
Is it just me or is former TD5 moving back towards new orleans? Will it ever lift out and move on?

Yes it is...the XTD that won't die! We are just hoping we don't end up with another Allison type drenching here

Quoting Drakoen:


Pouch tracking is different from invest status. In a sense, all tropical waves have a pouch where the curvature maximum bisects the critical layer. The purpose of pouch tracking is to monitor the development if tropical waves and it is independent of the NHC invest tagging. Pouch tracking is proving to be useful into really organizing data on waves, so that the waves progression can be monitored.

Additionally, if you do not want to track PGI's, no one is forcing you to do so.

Thanks for the explanation in layman's terms:) A bit more understandable now. Mel

Quoting StormW:


img src="" alt="" />

LOL ok thanks

Quoting StormPro:

Yes it is...the XTD that won't die! We are just hoping we don't end up with another Allison type drenching here

The rain here has not been too bad, but it has started raining again and I saw on the radar that the bigger storms looked to be heading back this way. It really is the little tropical system that could.

Wow 22deg above average moscow

Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
GOOD MORNING EVERYONE

"Now I know why tigers eat their young"

Quoting StormW:


Do you want what the models are predicting, or what I think?

What you think :)

Quoting StormW:


Aye! This interesting stuff!

StormW, Good Morning, just read your blog, great update. I am starting to understand more and more thanks to you. still not good enough to predict but never will, just love to read and learn.
Thanks again,
Sheri

Quoting hydrus:

kind of makes me crave a Cincinatti Chili for lunch.

Quoting clwstmchasr:


"Now I know why tigers eat their young"

I may be wrong but I thought that Jason dude had 2 X's behind his name
sheri

Quoting StormW:


Right now, based on the real time that I posted, this model has the best handle:



As far as the color charts, and other dynamic models...I don't think they have a clue. I would look for it to try and head east again, but come right back, or hang around for the next couple of weeks, or more.

Thanks Storm, i enjoy hearing your predictions rather than looking at dozens of models trying to decipher!

Quoting nishinigami:
The rain here has not been too bad, but it has started raining again and I saw on the radar that the bigger storms looked to be heading back this way. It really is the little tropical system that could.

The remnant of ex TD5 is slowly drifting north. WV imagery shows the trough over the Central Plains is swinging through now and this should tug the remnant on off to the north-northeast.

Quoting katrinakat5:
no x 5 is not moving back towards new orleans..it has slowed in forward speed but it still continues away from new orleans...we have been out of the FFW since early this morning...

Look at a radar loop...the coc, and I use the term loosly, is heading back NE...towards the SW corner of Mississippi...which in turn is dragging the moisture back towards SE Louisiana

I apologize if this question has already been asked and answered, but I have been away from the blog for about 24 hours.

Is there any chance that ex-ex-TD5 could make another go around? Are there any models to view.

Quoting clwstmchasr:


"Now I know why tigers eat their young"

+1 for making fun of a person not exactly all there.

Good Job, you must have been very popular in school.

Hmm, 12Z looks like it may be further south.

Quoting StormW:


Should wind up off or near the NC/SC coast in a few days

Thanks Storm. You are always so great about answering questions. I love reading your entries! I appreciate it.

hey stormchaser not all popular kids in school act like jerks./it's just most.lol

Quoting Jeff9641:


LOL! Man you caused me to choke. Some pics should not be posted.

+100

Major pattern recognition within the 6z GFS model run. The 6z GFS showed us exactly what we are potentially going to deal with in the next 10-14 days for the US coastline. We have presently a trending or deepening negative NAO that will begin to reach neutral and then positive levels as we head into the first week of September. So the model shows that the first system, of course with some potential of recurvature, but most likely not because as the NAO peaks at its lowest value the A/B high will be at its weakest. So with that said, the models don't begin developing our storm until another 72 hours out. What this means is that the wave or disturbance will continue heading westward more then west-northwestward or northwestward. So it won't begin to gain latitude until the A/B high begins to flex its muscle as the NAO trends towards neutral levels as the newly developed Danielle continues to head westward. A cutoff mid level low will lower heights across the Eastern US between next week and towards the weekend which will allow a newly formed but ever closing weakness to become present just as our major hurricane heads towards 70-75W longitude and roughly 20-25N, recurvature if it is going to happen would begin at this longitude as the A/B high continues to strengthen as our models are showing with the NAO going positive as the hurricane heads towards the US coast. Now before the A/B high is within the positive NAO regime, heights across the NE states and Maritime provinces of Canada will continue building and some semblance of a 500mb ridge will present protecting the shipping lanes of the NW Atlantic and make the hurricane head more NWward then Northeastward. So just as this hurricane threatens the US East Coast north of NC, although the SE US coastline still of course has to monitor in the case the A/B high strengthens more then scheduled which will push this storm into the SE US coast, however with the residual lowering heights across the East Coast north of NC, this will act to guide the hurricane more northward and should make landfall or just east of landfall across the NE US. I understand making a forecast of this magnitude is very dangerous given a certain level of hype involved given how rare such a landfall would be, but I am confident within the teleconnections that this has a rather medium confidence level for the long range. Thereafter as the A/B high flexes more, another hurricane located just north of Puerto Rico, most likely Earl ready to take aim at Cuba/FL and then eventually the GOM, because as I said this is around the first week of September when the NAO returns to positive levels and the hurricane could be pushed more in a Hurricane Ike like path. Again the GFS also showed in terms of intensity how delicate this situation could be, with the storm remaining tropical as it passes 45N. This is definitely a potentially dangerous setup and the long term teleconnections prove this to us and the models are beginning to catch on with the GFS continuously showing a hurricane near the New England coastline. I will have more in my blog soon, but be aware the models will change, but the overall pattern will not.

Good afternoon everyone!

Forgot to say that.

Thanks StormW!

Quoting wxvoyeur:


Interesting, did he credit NASA?

http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/208048main_lanina_HI.jpg

Not likely. The fool doesn't have a shred of integrity. But I tell you, he's sure not afraid to go out on a limb. For instance, look at this bold prediction:

Bastardi predicts severe cold will hit Alaska and western and central Canada.

Oh, no! Does he mean to tell us it will be cold in Alaska and Canada this winter?! That never happens! Stop the presses! Alert the populace!

;-)

Yeah i agree with ya. Should be wrapped up in the front bringing signficant rains to the east coast.

Quoting katrinakat5:
no x 5 is finished gone east with the geese...

While there is no tropical activity right now in the atlantic.THERE IS A HIGH 90 PERCENT CHANCE THE BLOG GOES NUTS DUE TO LACK OF ACTIVITY.

thank you everyone for your responses :)

12z run, 18z day 3:



06z run, 18z day 3:

Quoting DestinJeff:
Here she comes ...

walkin down the street...Link

Is Danielle goin down in the Caribbean?

Quoting Jeff9641:


LOL! Man you caused me to choke. Some pics should not be posted.

Remember the movie the quote came from?