The Atlantic is quiet; Pakistan monsoon rains continue; last day of Russian heat wave
A tropical wave in the Caribbean near Jamaica is generating disorganized thunderstorm activity over the central Caribbean. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west of Jamaica that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave.
The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands 3 - 7 days from now. A strong tropical wave currently moving off the coast of Africa is a good candidate for such a development. The NOGAPS model is predicting the development of a strong tropical disturbance near the coast of Honduras this weekend.
Figure 1. Extreme flooding along the Indus River in Pakistan has swollen the river to 16 miles (24 km) wide in sections, as seen in the top image from yesterday. For comparison, and image taken a year ago at this time in August (bottom image) shows that the Indus is normally just 1 - 2 km wide during monsoon season. Image credit: NASA Natural Hazards web site.
Extreme flooding and monsoon rains continue in Pakistan
In flood-ravaged Pakistan, heavy monsoon rains hit the Punjab region in the northeastern portion of the country yesterday, dropping up to 113 mm (4.45") of precipitation. The main river in Pakistan, the Indus, continues to cause extreme flooding, and has expanded to 16 miles (24 km) wide in some sections (Figure 1.) Dr. Ricky Rood, who writes our Climate Change Blog, has a sister that works in Pakistan. He has a must-read analysis of the catastrophe in Pakistan, "Pakistan: A Climate Disaster Case Study".
Moscow hits 93°F on the final day of the Great Russia Heat Wave of 2010
Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 34°C (93°F) today, which is 13°C (22°F) above average. However, pressures are falling rapidly and winds are picking up out ouf the southwest in advance of a powerful cold front that promises to sweep through all of European Russia tonight, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. The latest forecast for Moscow predicts Thursday's high will be just 21°C (69°F)--essentially average. With tonight's cold front will come rain to help put out the fires that continue to plague Russia with toxic smoke. Cool temperatures near of below average over the coming week will also help fire-fighting efforts.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Also it keeps sliding SSW.
Its at 12.7N 25.4W now.
Well tomorrow it should start getting more interesting.
Also here's 27L, not that amazing:
I better catch some ZZZs! >:@!
LOL!
watching the models is like being in a boat, catching 3 tuna at once, landing them all at once, putting down the baby to grab the tunas, and they flop around everywhere, and the baby's screaming
actually quite comical
Devo style.
the area of disturbed weather is getting better organised. early sat pics have shown the system was on a wsw course the last 12 hrs.what appears to be a coc near 10N 25.5W. the system is moving slightly south of due west at 15 - 20 mphand that should continue for the next 6-12 hrs. As a result of the wsw track the models will have to shift more to the left which will now put some of the islands at risk. this system is moving in an area which is becoming conducive for further development, and i expect the NHC to designate it 95L sometime today. this system should be monitored very closely
The... I just want to track a fish system in the great ATL, will be put to a test by the talking heads of WU.
No visible means of support and you have not seen nothing yet
Everything's stuck together
I don't know what you expect staring into the TV set
Fighting fire with fire
Hope this comes through. first light in Grand Cayman.
a Alien
Ready to face weather maps
cool baby- strange but not a stranger
three hun dred six ty five de grees
wearin' out the mouse!!
Thank you for your analysis. Just like it should be, simple, to the point, so that non met experts like me can understand it.
Sorry...my name catching up with me tonight....hope peppironi is ok
What a great song.
Morning Cyberspace!
lolol....good morning Chief!!
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/missions/grip/news/hirad.html
I know this is not right for the rain since it has been pouring for at least an hour.
Well... it will depend on the intensity of the rain. Yes, it could be raining for 1HR so far but the intensity might not be enough to warrant higher values at the location of that WX Station.
I didn't really do any analyzing, like you do. Just looked at the clouds and which direction they were moving.
It's all good.
Are you less than half a mile from that WX station?
It would have been nice if the Cayman Islands had a radar, but I wouldn't be surprised that like in FL and the tropics... downpours tend to be very localized so you might think is raining hard at the WX station site but it might just be in your area and such. Check the history of rain rate (if available) for that WX Station and that should give you a clue if it was heavier or lighter earlier in the period.
There's also that possibility that the Rain gauge is being obstructed by debris. My .50 cents... jeje.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
321 AM EDT THU AUG 19 2010
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SHARP UPR TRF DEVELOPING
ALONG THE E CST SUN AND MON AS SRT WAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE
UPR RDG TO THE W. AS THE UPR TRF DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVER REGION
EXPECT SCT CONVECTION SUN INTO MON. AS THE UPR TRF SLIDES E AND
SFC FRONT PUSHES S OF AREA PRECIP SHLD END OR BECOME ISOLD TUE
INTO WED. EXPECT HIGHS NEAR 90 SUNDAY WITH MAINLY 80S REST OF
PERIOD PER LOWER HGTS AND DEVELOPING N WINDS.
...........................................
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
600 AM EDT THU AUG 19 2010
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...A STRONG TROUGH DIGS
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS INDUCES HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHICH ALLOWS THE UPPER LOW
TO AMBLE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BY THE LATER PORTION OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC
WITH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING A DRYING TREND TO THE LOCAL
AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S OVER
THE EASTERN SHORE...TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
Looking at that looks like 00z run is correct?
Viewing: 1901 - 1951
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