Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

The Atlantic is quiet; Pakistan monsoon rains continue; last day of Russian heat wave
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 01:54 PM GMT del 18 Agosto 2010 +3
A tropical wave in the Caribbean near Jamaica is generating disorganized thunderstorm activity over the central Caribbean. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west of Jamaica that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands 3 - 7 days from now. A strong tropical wave currently moving off the coast of Africa is a good candidate for such a development. The NOGAPS model is predicting the development of a strong tropical disturbance near the coast of Honduras this weekend.


Figure 1. Extreme flooding along the Indus River in Pakistan has swollen the river to 16 miles (24 km) wide in sections, as seen in the top image from yesterday. For comparison, and image taken a year ago at this time in August (bottom image) shows that the Indus is normally just 1 - 2 km wide during monsoon season. Image credit: NASA Natural Hazards web site.

Extreme flooding and monsoon rains continue in Pakistan
In flood-ravaged Pakistan, heavy monsoon rains hit the Punjab region in the northeastern portion of the country yesterday, dropping up to 113 mm (4.45") of precipitation. The main river in Pakistan, the Indus, continues to cause extreme flooding, and has expanded to 16 miles (24 km) wide in some sections (Figure 1.) Dr. Ricky Rood, who writes our Climate Change Blog, has a sister that works in Pakistan. He has a must-read analysis of the catastrophe in Pakistan, "Pakistan: A Climate Disaster Case Study".

Moscow hits 93°F on the final day of the Great Russia Heat Wave of 2010
Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 34°C (93°F) today, which is 13°C (22°F) above average. However, pressures are falling rapidly and winds are picking up out ouf the southwest in advance of a powerful cold front that promises to sweep through all of European Russia tonight, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. The latest forecast for Moscow predicts Thursday's high will be just 21°C (69°F)--essentially average. With tonight's cold front will come rain to help put out the fires that continue to plague Russia with toxic smoke. Cool temperatures near of below average over the coming week will also help fire-fighting efforts.

Jeff Masters
  Permalink | A A A
Reader Comments
Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted
Viewing: 1601 - 1651

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43Blog Index

1601. washingtonian115 04:00 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think that blob has a good chance to develop imo. I have no one ignore, doesn't make sense to me, if you don't like what they have to say, move on, after a 100 on ignore you come pretty near talking to yourself as far as i'm concerned! Agree with you 100%
Yeah I let the admin take care of the person when there acting out of character.It's not my job.And even if the blob doesn't develope in the carribean it may develope in the boc.
Member Since: Agosto 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10675
1602. xcool 04:00 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
TampaSpin .i have no clue noomore..
Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503
1603. KoritheMan 04:01 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
0z GFS at 30 hours showing a developing low pressure area southwest of the Cape Verde Islands:

Member Since: Marzo 7, 2007 Posts: 411 Comments: 15474
1604. xcool 04:01 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503
1605. pottery 04:03 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
Quoting TampaSpin:


I don't know....3 years ago, none of this stuff was around. People was helping people. Now its all about blogger pretending to be 13yo like some do and others just trashing the blog. Some day Dr. Masters might wanna set down with his staff and give them an ear full as to what is right and what is wrong. But, that would be politically incorrect tho. So many of the good people are gone and ran off some by bloggers that are on here all the time currently that i so know about as they have emailed me. I wish i could just post what i know! It is crazy stuff.

There are people here (like me) who agree with you.
Unfortunately, in any popular blog, there will be attention-seekers and foolish posters.
Ignore them, and keep doing what you do.
It is appreciated..
Member Since: Ottobre 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20713
1606. washingtonian115 04:05 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
Quoting pottery:

Yes Indeed.
They will need to track pretty much west to avoid the dry though. (I have not looked at the WaterVapor forecasts) The track forecasts have the systems moving more NW. So far....
A north west trend is great,well that would be great.But if the nao turns negative like the ecmwf is forecasting than a Ike,or Andrew track is not out of the question.
Member Since: Agosto 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10675
1607. pottery 04:05 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
Quoting KoritheMan:
0z GFS at 30 hours showing a developing low pressure area southwest of the Cape Verde Islands:


I wonder if that is the wave over central Africa now?
Seems too quick?
And where are the others LOL
Member Since: Ottobre 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20713
1608. raggpr 04:06 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
at 48 hours 00gfs have it moving west-west-southwest
Member Since: Settembre 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
1609. TampaSpin 04:06 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
Quoting xcool:
TampaSpin .i have no clue noomore..


Go to my website so i can chat with you for a second.......please
Member Since: Settembre 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747
1610. xcool 04:07 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
TampaSpin :) give me 3min sir.
Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503
1611. will45 04:07 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
Quoting KoritheMan:
0z GFS at 30 hours showing a developing low pressure area southwest of the Cape Verde Islands:




96hrs it is out to 40W
Member Since: Luglio 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
1612. JLPR2 04:07 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
Quoting raggpr:
at 48 hours 00gfs have it moving west-west-southwest


that's a lot of west xD
Member Since: Settembre 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487
1613. raggpr 04:08 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    


Keeps moving west and it seems to be a strong TS
Member Since: Settembre 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
1614. JLPR2 04:09 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
Quoting raggpr:


Keeps moving west and it seems to be a strong TS


Stronger than last run, maybe the last run had some problems or rotten info?
Member Since: Settembre 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487
1615. TampaSpin 04:09 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
Quoting pottery:

I wonder if that is the wave over central Africa now?
Seems too quick?
And where are the others LOL


Bro you are one of the good guys that have been on here during that time a well. You are truly appreciated and you always try to keep things civil when they get out of hand. And that i thank you for as a friend that you are.
Member Since: Settembre 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747
1616. KoritheMan 04:10 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
0z GFS 90 hours shows the longwave trough currently over the eastern United States lifting out to the north, with a building ridge in its wake. This forces the system toward the Caribbean:

Member Since: Marzo 7, 2007 Posts: 411 Comments: 15474
1617. raggpr 04:10 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
Quoting JLPR2:


that's a lot of west xD


LOL i just wanted to say that is seems to be moving west and sometimes a little bit southwest
Member Since: Settembre 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
1618. KoritheMan 04:10 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
Quoting pottery:

I wonder if that is the wave over central Africa now?
Seems too quick?
And where are the others LOL


No, I think it's the wave in the vicinity of the CV Islands. You know, the one we're watching now.
Member Since: Marzo 7, 2007 Posts: 411 Comments: 15474
1619. WeatherMSK 04:10 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
Wow....oh man looks further south than the last 2 previous runs.
Member Since: Febbraio 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 465
1620. will45 04:11 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
starting to gain lattitude at 114 hrs
Member Since: Luglio 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
1621. pottery 04:11 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
Quoting TampaSpin:


Bro you are one of the good guys that have been on here during that time a well. You are truly appreciated and you always try to keep things civil when they get out of hand. And that i thank you for as a friend that you are.

Thanks...
Keep your info coming.
Member Since: Ottobre 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20713
1622. JLPR2 04:12 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
Quoting raggpr:


LOL i just wanted to say that is seems to be moving west and sometimes a little bit southwest


Haha! No problem that was clear. :)
Those little wobbles to the south are worrying me a little, I do hope they dont happen.
Member Since: Settembre 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487
1623. help4u 04:12 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
284 hours gfs has major cane hitting maryland area.
Member Since: Settembre 18, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1072
1624. JLPR2 04:12 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
Quoting pottery:

I wonder if that is the wave over central Africa now?
Seems too quick?
And where are the others LOL


25W, around 13N

Member Since: Settembre 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487
1625. pottery 04:13 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
Quoting KoritheMan:


No, I think it's the wave in the vicinity of the CV Islands. You know, the one we're watching now.

OK. So not a lot of movement in 30 hrs then.
Slow is bad....
Member Since: Ottobre 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20713
1626. ryang 04:15 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
108 hours

Member Since: Agosto 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12333
1627. washingtonian115 04:15 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
Tampaspin I wish I could go back to 2004,because that was one of my best childhood years.Now I'm 17.My mom always told me that you have to accept changes.However the same can not be said for one of my teachers.Because she has an 80's hair style.Lol.
Member Since: Agosto 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10675
1628. pottery 04:15 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
Quoting JLPR2:


25W, around 13N


But the models drop that ?
Member Since: Ottobre 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20713
1629. WeatherMSK 04:16 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
Really noticing that first trough flattening out a lot more than the other runs.
Member Since: Febbraio 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 465
1630. raggpr 04:16 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
seems like after 40w it moves in a wnw direction, still looks is going to pass few hundreds miles north of the islands
Member Since: Settembre 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
1631. centex 04:17 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
Not first one to mention but all this 4-5 day out model forecast is well, for better word crap. I guess not interested in 48 hour Cyclogenesis. The real experts give Carib wave the best chance and they recently upped the chance because of better conditions in near term expected to improve. Point, been far too many Cape Verde centric forecasters and long range model analysis in area where models are known to be very unreliable. 95L in western carib tomorrow PM IMO.
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2856
1632. pottery 04:17 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
Quoting ryang:
108 hours


Good to see you!
Member Since: Ottobre 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20713
1633. will45 04:17 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
i hope it turns quick now lol
Member Since: Luglio 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
1634. JLPR2 04:17 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
Quoting pottery:

But the models drop that ?


Nope that's the one the models are trying to develop, PGI31L.

Member Since: Settembre 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487
1635. pottery 04:19 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
Quoting JLPR2:


Nope that's the one the models are trying to develop, PGI31L.


OK, I am seeing that now.
I was confused...
Member Since: Ottobre 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20713
1636. ryang 04:20 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
Quoting pottery:

Good to see you!


Hey pottery....i've been very busy these days
Member Since: Agosto 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12333
1637. TampaSpin 04:20 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    



That is one big and seems to be a very organized system in the middle of Africa.
Member Since: Settembre 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747
1638. JLPR2 04:20 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
Quoting pottery:

OK, I am seeing that now.
I was confused...


No problem, this one has improved in appearance since yesterday and it should be spinning tomorrow if the models pan out and develop by Friday or Saturday.
Member Since: Settembre 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487
1639. smuldy 04:21 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
anyone have the 00z gfs run from one of the paysites? huffman's site is all down on me right now so I'm guessing theyre still being loaded up there


edit: im a moron didnt realize they were posted since my last refresh many thanks
Member Since: Luglio 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 516
1640. pottery 04:21 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
Quoting ryang:


Hey pottery....i've been very busy these days

Me too!
I come here for Therapy LOL!
Member Since: Ottobre 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20713
1641. ho77yw00d 04:22 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
Quoting TampaSpin:



That is one big and seems to be a very organized system in the middle of Africa.


your not kidding wow
Member Since: Luglio 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 427
1642. xcool 04:22 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
TampaSpin :0
Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503
1643. KoritheMan 04:22 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
Quoting smuldy:
anyone have the 00z gfs run from one of the paysites? huffman's site is all down on me right now so I'm guessing theyre still being loaded up there


I'm getting it from here.
Member Since: Marzo 7, 2007 Posts: 411 Comments: 15474
1644. washingtonian115 04:23 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
Accuweather is saying the disturbance that the gfs is developing into a major....they call it "Big daddy".But wait!.Wouldn't it aquire the name danille,so it would be called "Big mama".
Member Since: Agosto 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10675
1645. pottery 04:23 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
Quoting TampaSpin:



That is one big and seems to be a very organized system in the middle of Africa.

That is the one I was referring to, a couple mins ago.
Looks fearsome!
Member Since: Ottobre 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20713
1646. ryang 04:23 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
132 hours

Member Since: Agosto 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12333
1647. ho77yw00d 04:23 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
tampaspin just quoted you im prob going to get banned now lol...
Member Since: Luglio 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 427
1648. traumaboyy 04:24 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
Wassup XCool??
Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2179
1649. WeatherMSK 04:24 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
Good call! Henry needs to be made aware of this before he pulls out the hat.

Quoting washingtonian115:
Accuweather is saying the disturbance that the gfs is developing into a major....they call it "Big daddy".But wait!.Wouldn't it aquire the name danille,so it would be called "Big mama".
Member Since: Febbraio 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 465
1650. xcool 04:25 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503
1651. smuldy 04:25 AM GMT del 19 Agosto 2010    
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm getting it from here.
many many thanks
Member Since: Luglio 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 516

Viewing: 1601 - 1651

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43Blog Index

New Comment
Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.
Post Your Comments
Please sign in to post comments.
Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.
About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Community Activity