The Atlantic is quiet; Pakistan monsoon rains continue; last day of Russian heat wave
A tropical wave in the Caribbean near Jamaica is generating disorganized thunderstorm activity over the central Caribbean. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west of Jamaica that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave.
The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands 3 - 7 days from now. A strong tropical wave currently moving off the coast of Africa is a good candidate for such a development. The NOGAPS model is predicting the development of a strong tropical disturbance near the coast of Honduras this weekend.
Figure 1. Extreme flooding along the Indus River in Pakistan has swollen the river to 16 miles (24 km) wide in sections, as seen in the top image from yesterday. For comparison, and image taken a year ago at this time in August (bottom image) shows that the Indus is normally just 1 - 2 km wide during monsoon season. Image credit: NASA Natural Hazards web site.
Extreme flooding and monsoon rains continue in Pakistan
In flood-ravaged Pakistan, heavy monsoon rains hit the Punjab region in the northeastern portion of the country yesterday, dropping up to 113 mm (4.45") of precipitation. The main river in Pakistan, the Indus, continues to cause extreme flooding, and has expanded to 16 miles (24 km) wide in some sections (Figure 1.) Dr. Ricky Rood, who writes our Climate Change Blog, has a sister that works in Pakistan. He has a must-read analysis of the catastrophe in Pakistan, "Pakistan: A Climate Disaster Case Study".
Moscow hits 93°F on the final day of the Great Russia Heat Wave of 2010
Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 34°C (93°F) today, which is 13°C (22°F) above average. However, pressures are falling rapidly and winds are picking up out ouf the southwest in advance of a powerful cold front that promises to sweep through all of European Russia tonight, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. The latest forecast for Moscow predicts Thursday's high will be just 21°C (69°F)--essentially average. With tonight's cold front will come rain to help put out the fires that continue to plague Russia with toxic smoke. Cool temperatures near of below average over the coming week will also help fire-fighting efforts.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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It's like Pre-Noel and Pre-Fay in PR.
Pre-Noel was really bad to the Southeast.
Damm!!
I came here tonight trying to FORGET the ants.
A swarm. A MULTITUDE of the creatures have manifested themselves in between a rafter and a facing-board upstairs in this old house.
Was drilling holes and injecting deadly stuff all afternoon!
BAH!!
The atmosphere is transitioning from a period of prolonged stability to one of instability. That process is taking time and you will continue to see the jumble out there until the end of this week. After that, we should start to see specific areas organizing.
I believe this year will be marked more by the number of intense systems and not the number of systems overall.
Time will tell.
Where is the Cumberland Plateau ?
Tropics Quiet Now, But Trouble Is Undoubtedly Lurking
Oh no you didn't... Ants heading for high ground!?!!! The ant-casters are going to go positively ballistic over this new evidence.
(I'm leaving now for north Canada.)
Very dry in South Sound. Last Sunday about 3 inches, thunder and lightning at the golf course ( rained me out ) and not a drop over my home. Go figure.
Odd weather patterns this year. Either too much or too little.
Well, there is certainly an awful lot of potential energy everywhere.
It has to be dealt with.
How about one Mega-Cane that covers the entire basin for 2 weeks?
Played a Golf Course there called Cumberland Pines. WOW one of my favorite courses of all times i have played. The only course i ever played when riding a Golf Cart were signs say beware of steep Grade......NO KIDDING!
Is that what the ants in the rafters told you!?!!!???
Hang ON! I have my bag packed....
;o)
I am afraid that I did not give them the opportunity to converse...
Not two weeks but perhaps 24 to 48 hrs plus at cat 4 or above each time ?. All that heat in the oceans has to migrate to the North.
I wish I had NOT mentioned the ants.
I did not stop to think of the Dire Messages they were bringing.........
It's too late now.
I dealt them the old Shower-Curtain Manouver...
I'm sort of afraid to ask, but in the interest of science....was this the first year you've seen this activity?
.
I'm sorry, but do continue to report in. If the ants start climbing the calabash it's time for all of us to hunker down.
If you look back in time it's been ever so long since those islands were really threatened. When they were under the gun the NW Caribbean went year after year with little or no threats.
I think the pattern may be ready to switch back again after the nasty run of storms and hurricanes we have had coming in low through the Southern Caribbean.
Before Ivan we had Opal....no power for four days.....and no generator....I guess if you are well prepared the hurricanes don't come back.....well hopefully
Story of my life :)
yeah in the last GFS RUN it seems like that
Now see here!
You guys are making me very Concerned.
The truth is, we have ants.
But they generally Know Their Place.
24 feet above ground-level is indeed a first.
I will inspect the Calabash in the morning. In the interest of Science, as you say.
And keep you posted.
I will also call my Insurer...
Good night all, Back tomorrow to check on the Caribbean blob.
I'd call Terminix Pottery...
Fire ants??
No. I will not go there...
RAAIIIIDDDD!!!
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