The Atlantic is quiet; Pakistan monsoon rains continue; last day of Russian heat wave
A tropical wave in the Caribbean near Jamaica is generating disorganized thunderstorm activity over the central Caribbean. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west of Jamaica that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave.
The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands 3 - 7 days from now. A strong tropical wave currently moving off the coast of Africa is a good candidate for such a development. The NOGAPS model is predicting the development of a strong tropical disturbance near the coast of Honduras this weekend.
Figure 1. Extreme flooding along the Indus River in Pakistan has swollen the river to 16 miles (24 km) wide in sections, as seen in the top image from yesterday. For comparison, and image taken a year ago at this time in August (bottom image) shows that the Indus is normally just 1 - 2 km wide during monsoon season. Image credit: NASA Natural Hazards web site.
Extreme flooding and monsoon rains continue in Pakistan
In flood-ravaged Pakistan, heavy monsoon rains hit the Punjab region in the northeastern portion of the country yesterday, dropping up to 113 mm (4.45") of precipitation. The main river in Pakistan, the Indus, continues to cause extreme flooding, and has expanded to 16 miles (24 km) wide in some sections (Figure 1.) Dr. Ricky Rood, who writes our Climate Change Blog, has a sister that works in Pakistan. He has a must-read analysis of the catastrophe in Pakistan, "Pakistan: A Climate Disaster Case Study".
Moscow hits 93°F on the final day of the Great Russia Heat Wave of 2010
Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 34°C (93°F) today, which is 13°C (22°F) above average. However, pressures are falling rapidly and winds are picking up out ouf the southwest in advance of a powerful cold front that promises to sweep through all of European Russia tonight, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. The latest forecast for Moscow predicts Thursday's high will be just 21°C (69°F)--essentially average. With tonight's cold front will come rain to help put out the fires that continue to plague Russia with toxic smoke. Cool temperatures near of below average over the coming week will also help fire-fighting efforts.
Jeff Masters
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Wow buy one hurricane and get one free! LOL
Trade ya.
The latest ECMWF doesn't show a 2nd storm.
The latest GFS curves a system well east of the USA, for now.
It's both.
Now that is sad LOL!
Edit: Courtesy of CIMSS.
Downcaster?
A chronic one yes, claims that he does it to try and balance the wishcasters
I dont buy it lol, but whatever
I've had enough of you.
You're #100 on my list.
*poof*
That is a nice accomplishment, congrats on your 100th ignore! XD
My ignore list goes back to when Dean was around.
About 10 of them are *** with his different screen names.
Taco :o)
H
Quoting IKE:
The latest GFS doesn't show a 2nd storm.
The latest ECMWF doesn't show a 2nd storm.
The latest GFS curves a system well east of the USA, for now.
Well, are these three statements true or false?
Please don't misquote me, EnergyMoron; that's a bit disingenuous of you. I did not say "If you don't have an advanced degree in computational fluid dynamics then you don't have a say"; what I said (since we're paraphrasing here) is: "Rather than constantly mewling about a busted season in a thoroughly non-scientific manner, it might be more helpful for both you and the blog if you exercise a little self-restraint by not posting long enough try to learn something." I can't imagine anyone taking offense at that...aside from inveterate trolls, that is.
So far as the "sort of attitude that turns off people to the seriousness of AGW," I'd be more inclined to believe the incessant and foolish non-science drumbeat from the Right, combined with the generally non-scientific bent of the American public--a huge percentage of whom, for instance, still believe that both the planet and humans have been around for fewer than 10,000 years--and a dash of resistance to change, and there you have it.
FWIW, Houston doesn't very often suffer from temps over 100; its semitropical climate is similar to Florida's in that very high humidity in summer generally keeps temps from getting that high. Of course, I wouldn't expect a populist website creator such as Drudge to know that; like those who see the increasing truth of AGW, I tend to get my atmospheric science from atmospheric scientists, not, you know, conservative gossip bloggers.
Yes, I do use the term "Big Energy" as shorthand; it's so much easier than repeatedly typing "ExxonMobil, Shell, Peabody, Saudi Aramco, CNPC, BP, Rio Tinto, Shell, Rosneft, NIOC, Massey, PDV, ConcoPhillips, Chevron, CONSOL, Pemex, Gazprom, Petroras, et al" over and over and over. I think most intelligent people realize that the term "Big Energy" refers to those global megacorporations that stand by far the most to gain by maintaining the current fossil fuel paradigm, and who are therefore pulling out all the stops to convince the populace that every scientist in the world is lying to them. (And kudos to them: they seem to be sadly succeeding)
You might have mentioned that the "fool" to whom I was referring was Joe Bastardi, and the foolishness was his lack of forecasting integrity. I see him as a fool. Always have, and--until/unless he changes his ways--always will. So sue me.
Finally, you've asked me and others the following question several times: "What is your carbon footprint and what are you doing to reduce it?" I could be wrong, but I don't believe contrarians really ask that out of a sincere desire to know; it's more so they can level the charge of "hypocrite" at those who see the validity of AGW, but still haven't given up their automobiles, or their air conditioners, or their TVs. To such people, it's as if any usage of coal or oil entirely invalidates the science behind climate change...which is absolutely ludicrous any way you look at it. But I'll answer anyway, in no particular order:
My entire home is lit by LEDs (with the exception of a few legacy CFLs); though I have a clothes drier, I hang my laundry when the weather allows (which, in Florida, is generally only in fall and winter); I bike/walk everywhere I can, carpool when possible, and drive a small four-cylinder car when I must; I keep that car maintained; my home is weatherproofed, with no drafts; I keep my AC on only in the heart of summer, and use a programmable thermostat while keeping the temp several degrees higher than I used to; I shop at the local farmer's market (and I'd grow my own if I had the land). And so on, and so forth. I also invest in green companies I've thoroughy vetted, and--perhaps most importantly--I am actually involved with a few companies doing R&D for several next-generation power creation/conversion technologies: super high-efficiency solar panels and small-footprint windmills, geothermal/geoexchange systems, tidal/hydro devices...and a new device that, if it works as intended, will convert dirty and/or sea water into both potable water and latent energy.
Don't know if all that qualifies me for entry into whatever club it is you may be thinking of, but I know I'm doing my part. All of us could do more--including me--but at least I'm trying.
Not in the panhandle..other areas south of here..Tampa, etc...but not NW panhandle. Been here 30 years and other than Opal, nothing after 9/16 (the BIG I)
I've always gone by the date Opal hit, which was Oct. 4th. They can happen after that date, but the odds are decreasing.
The Atlantic tropical discussion yesterday mentioned a monsoonal trough running through that area. I looked that up on Wikipedia and in the eastern Atlantic that appears to be almost synonymous with the ITCZ. Calling it a monsoonal trough seems to be a way of saying that the monsoonal circulation is enhancing/modifying the ITCZ--in this case. The discussion section of the Wiki article emphasized that monsoon troughs are not always coincident with the ITCZ. The gist seemed to be, though, that if you are looking at a monsoonal trough that happens to coincide with the ITCZ then ...
So I think the monsoonal trough leading onshore contains both PGI31L and PGI33L. PGI33L is still over land according to the CIMSS PREDICT maps.
Not trying to be rude, IKE, just stating what I see.
The GFS did drop the second system.
If you think 1009 mb's is a storm, go for it. The XTD5 that recon went into and didn't upgrade was at 1007 mb's.
aspectre "PressureGradient"
1092 bappit "Negatory. Pouch Guidance, as in Pouch Guidance Invest 31 L."
Thanks for the correction.
NOVEMBER 1985
11/21 06 GMT 27.5 86.6 115 961 Category 3 Hurricane
11/21 12 GMT 28.3 86.5 110 965 Category 2 Hurricane
11/21 18 GMT 29.2 86.1 100 967 Category 2 Hurricane
11/22 00 GMT 30.2 85.1 90 975 Category 1 Hurricane
11/22 06 GMT 31.5 83.5 75 983 Category 1 Hurricane
Oh wow dude. I'm knocking on wood for you. And I don't live anywhere near Florida. Don't tempt fate.
I think the system would be either a TD or the precursor to one.
The difference between 1007 mb and 1009 mb is about .06 inches of mercury. Not much.
32w
Link
HERE HERE!!
Model pressures aren't accurate though. That may or may not be a storm it is hard to say on a long-range model.
Proves my point
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