The Atlantic is quiet; Pakistan monsoon rains continue; last day of Russian heat wave
A tropical wave in the Caribbean near Jamaica is generating disorganized thunderstorm activity over the central Caribbean. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west of Jamaica that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave.
The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands 3 - 7 days from now. A strong tropical wave currently moving off the coast of Africa is a good candidate for such a development. The NOGAPS model is predicting the development of a strong tropical disturbance near the coast of Honduras this weekend.
Figure 1. Extreme flooding along the Indus River in Pakistan has swollen the river to 16 miles (24 km) wide in sections, as seen in the top image from yesterday. For comparison, and image taken a year ago at this time in August (bottom image) shows that the Indus is normally just 1 - 2 km wide during monsoon season. Image credit: NASA Natural Hazards web site.
Extreme flooding and monsoon rains continue in Pakistan
In flood-ravaged Pakistan, heavy monsoon rains hit the Punjab region in the northeastern portion of the country yesterday, dropping up to 113 mm (4.45") of precipitation. The main river in Pakistan, the Indus, continues to cause extreme flooding, and has expanded to 16 miles (24 km) wide in some sections (Figure 1.) Dr. Ricky Rood, who writes our Climate Change Blog, has a sister that works in Pakistan. He has a must-read analysis of the catastrophe in Pakistan, "Pakistan: A Climate Disaster Case Study".
Moscow hits 93°F on the final day of the Great Russia Heat Wave of 2010
Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 34°C (93°F) today, which is 13°C (22°F) above average. However, pressures are falling rapidly and winds are picking up out ouf the southwest in advance of a powerful cold front that promises to sweep through all of European Russia tonight, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. The latest forecast for Moscow predicts Thursday's high will be just 21°C (69°F)--essentially average. With tonight's cold front will come rain to help put out the fires that continue to plague Russia with toxic smoke. Cool temperatures near of below average over the coming week will also help fire-fighting efforts.
Jeff Masters
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MIT has an open courseware...and others i"m sure
I assume, as part of the overall package you have to take linear algebra.
Hated it. It didn't seem in anyway useful until differential equations, at which point it made sense.
My alma mater (University of Houston) at least used to offer a math for engineers course, which taught linear algebra and diff eq at the same time. Unfortunately, that was not an option for me.
The Madden-Juilan Oscillation being supportive in our basin? plus if we get into a negative NAO that would slow down the trade winds right?
Bout time....LOL
2010:
2009:
Got it. For every day during this hot, hot summer there's not a storm, those SSTs continue to climb and TCHP continues to deepen...and remember, they don't max out in the Caribeean until late September, so there's still five weeks or so of heating until they've peaked out. So if you figure the MDR could stay active until, say, late October--which is entirely possible this year--we could see another 13 or 14 TCs by Halloween, or roughly one every 5 or 6 days. That may sound like a lot, but consider there'll likely be times whene multiple storms exist, and that wouldn't be a problem at all. Add those to our grand total of three, throw in a straggler (or two) in November/December, and the season may round out just fine.
Of course, none of that may happen. Shear could destroy every storm from here on out, the machine could shut down in late September, and we could finish the season at 3-1-0...though I highly doubt it. :-)
Once the land is cooler than the water and the focus of heat is in the Atlantic could the Hot SSTs and TCHP cause a greater instablity thus more lifting and help the MJO to stay in our basin? Added with the Baroclinic instability that will start to enter our basin from cool fronts
Yup.
Look at that massive blowup over Chad...
Meaning this won't be an average season? In a bad way?
And i greatly appreciate it...researching and reading books can get you all the knowledge you want as a young lad but experience beats all no offense to your age Storm but when the older Meteorologists speak i listen...
It is too early to say even now, likely the reason why the NHC hasn't mentioned anything yet.
hmmmmm. I know there is no real way of knowing, but I wonder if TX will have any hurricanes this season.....(just thinking out loud)
And in related news, sales of snowblowers, snow shovels, and winter weather gear have spiked across the northern tier of the United States...
I see two things...one i see a strong La Nina and two i see a cooler than average gulf of Guinea south of Africa which would create a greater pressure gradient feeding the winds into the AEJ which could create frequent and stronger waves off of Africa?
No physics?
The magic 8 ball says the Pacific NW is in for a very snowy winter...
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