The Atlantic is quiet; Pakistan monsoon rains continue; last day of Russian heat wave
A tropical wave in the Caribbean near Jamaica is generating disorganized thunderstorm activity over the central Caribbean. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west of Jamaica that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave.
The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands 3 - 7 days from now. A strong tropical wave currently moving off the coast of Africa is a good candidate for such a development. The NOGAPS model is predicting the development of a strong tropical disturbance near the coast of Honduras this weekend.
Figure 1. Extreme flooding along the Indus River in Pakistan has swollen the river to 16 miles (24 km) wide in sections, as seen in the top image from yesterday. For comparison, and image taken a year ago at this time in August (bottom image) shows that the Indus is normally just 1 - 2 km wide during monsoon season. Image credit: NASA Natural Hazards web site.
Extreme flooding and monsoon rains continue in Pakistan
In flood-ravaged Pakistan, heavy monsoon rains hit the Punjab region in the northeastern portion of the country yesterday, dropping up to 113 mm (4.45") of precipitation. The main river in Pakistan, the Indus, continues to cause extreme flooding, and has expanded to 16 miles (24 km) wide in some sections (Figure 1.) Dr. Ricky Rood, who writes our Climate Change Blog, has a sister that works in Pakistan. He has a must-read analysis of the catastrophe in Pakistan, "Pakistan: A Climate Disaster Case Study".
Moscow hits 93°F on the final day of the Great Russia Heat Wave of 2010
Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 34°C (93°F) today, which is 13°C (22°F) above average. However, pressures are falling rapidly and winds are picking up out ouf the southwest in advance of a powerful cold front that promises to sweep through all of European Russia tonight, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. The latest forecast for Moscow predicts Thursday's high will be just 21°C (69°F)--essentially average. With tonight's cold front will come rain to help put out the fires that continue to plague Russia with toxic smoke. Cool temperatures near of below average over the coming week will also help fire-fighting efforts.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Most sensible thing said today
stop with that plzs or you end uo geting banned like some one did last night
most La Nina seasons don't even have 3 storms and 2 depressions at this point; so we are actually ahead of the curve
you should fully expect a very active end of August, along with a very active month of September and October.
Wow - what a difference 6 hours can make in the atmosphere in this blog...
Link
Further evidence that 2010 (so far) is the year of TUTT/ULL
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 18 2010
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE W ATLC AROUND A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR
28N64W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 35N69. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA ALONG 32N76W
TO 29N79W SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO N OF
CUBA FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 76W-81W ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT LINES THE BORDER
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N BETWEEN 50W-64W ENHANCING A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 60W-66W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF THE FRONT ALONG 30N53W TO 26N57W
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE
AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 19N57W SUPPORTS THE SURFACE TROUGH. FARTHER E...SURFACE
RIDING DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 36N29W
MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES AN
AREA OF AFRICAN DUST ACROSS THE S CENTRAL ATLC AND INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 55W-70W PROVIDING STABLE CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS COVERING THE E ATLC CENTERED
NEAR 25N36W.
Please place that wager with me i need 500 dollars lol
We know you (and several others like you) are trolling for attention, so let me give you a little bit:
Okay, we get it. The season has so far failed to live up to your expectations. You've got zero background in any of the earth sciences, especially meteorology, so you're not capable of understanding any of the numerous signs pointing to an extended period of above-average cyclogenesis, and that's why you're so frustrated. That's okay; not everyone here can be educated to the same degree, so there's no shame in not knowing. HOWEVER...rather than comment every five or ten minutes about how horrible the season has been--which only serves to annoy those visitors who wish to learn, while causing them to question your mentality and emotional state--why not just sit back and try to soak up a little of the knowledge that's being offered here free of charge? Knowledge can go a long way toward lessening your frustration...and even further toward endearing you to the hearts of your blog-mates.
I said something about us being fornate so far this season so are you talking about me? Hope not because i do have alot of background in Meteorology and will be a degreed Meteorologist in less than 2 years
Awesome point!
so do i
I hate my name Danielle but a lot of people like it.lol but he almost pronounces it right he is saying Daniel (boys name) but it's close!
whats funny is my name is Danielle and my fiance's name is Daniel... go figure just had to share okay back to weather
Excellent post.
Ummm...no. Did you see the top of my post and whom I was quoting?
+15
Look at the person he quoted...not you.
Yes but you said "others" who were saying that this season hasnt met expectations and i am one of those people...I do still believe there are active times ahead but i do not believe we will reach the numbers predicted in the preseason i'm thinking along the lines of 10-13 storms. Maybe even a near average season. To me this season won't get active until
1)Successive cool fronts cool the waters near 30N and above giving us the Atlantic Tripole back and re-establishing the strong Hadley cell circulation
2) When these cold fronts will add more Baroclinic instablity to the basin
No, if anything, It'll be a piece of energy off the East coast next week.
got a link to that?
Great post
Dan yell, there is no "a" at the end
My DDD (Dear Departed Dad) used to say "Throw a rock into a pack of dogs, first one that yelps is generally the one you hit".
There are some prounounced ella at the end,
oh, ok. thanks.
(For those who have read my blog, she is the one I mention who has cystic fibrosis).
I am not a troll....very far from it....if you want proof go read my blog entries...Also if you read above...i'm backing my opinions of a slower season than predicted up with Meteorological evidence....sorry its not what you wanted to hear
?
Post 542
How strong is that showing....looks to be a strong one.
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