Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting cyclonekid:
XD. I think I've only been here a year and a half. I think. So you joined before I did. =)

And I'm really getting bored with this season. We haven't had much happen except a hurricane, which I will give credit for...it was quite interesting, a tropical storm which hit FL and then dissipated thereafter, and then had a tropical storm, that was kind of interesting...being that it regenerated, and two tropical depressions. I guess because they've been spaced out, I've become bored. But, things should get interesting as we enter the last part of August and the month of September.

Does anyone know when the next big pulse of MJO is coming?

Well, let's just say there is a strong chance that we'll get our most interesting storm just as I start school. =|

As for landfalls, I am particularly concerned for the East and Gulf Coasts, especially during the next few weeks.

Quoting AllBoardedUp:
The downtown one is the original, correct? The one I went to was in League City.

I don't know if it is the original, but it spans a few blocks along Louisiana Street.

Quoting nyhurricaneboy:


Well, let's just say there is a strong chance that we'll get our most interesting storm just as I start school. =|

As for landfalls, I am particularly concerned for the East and Gulf Coasts, especially during the next few weeks.

I start next Wednesday. So things will JUST be starting to ramp up.

Quoting IKE:
From last Saturday...

1301. IKE 6:09 AM CDT on August 14, 2010


Looks like a true Cape Verde system by this time next week. All of the models show it.

My prediction...

(1)There will be tons of "west"-casting going on.
(2)A few will say a track to Florida even though it's 4,000 miles away.
(3)Some will say..."aren't you forgetting the islands? They're first and foremost".
(4)Those that like to beat their chests will say...this is what I've been saying would happen. Even though their previous forecasts were wrong.
(5)Some will say....where are the downcasters and season-is-a-bust crowd at now.

........................................


#1....check.

It's not west-casting, it's looking at the possibility the the ridge will move/strengthen further west than expected. It doesn't hurt to look at all the possibilities this far out, because absolutely nothing can be ruled out yet. For all we know, something unforseen might happen and kill this wave off and nothing happens.

I remember at the very beginning of the season some people on here (maybe Storm being one of them) stated that because of the atmospheric conditions, Texas was going to be in the bull's eye, so to speak. It started out that way with the first two storms. My question is, what changed, if anything, and are the chance of a Texas hit less now? Sure not complaining if the chances are less, just curious.

Quoting spartankicker:


It's not west-casting, it's looking at the possibility the the ridge will move/strengthen further west than expected. It doesn't hurt to look at all the possibilities this far out, because absolutely nothing can be ruled out yet. For all we know, something unforseen might happen and kill this wave off and nothing happens.

Models should start shifting back and forth until we actually have a system to track. The out to sea scenario is not certain.

Quoting StormW:


What I was referring to was the part of the positive NAO moving the system further west. Folks kind of get the negative and positive phases mixed up. Based on that research article, I have a tendency to look at the NAO in this way: I see folks already talking about the infamous "east coast trof" and re-curvature.

In a meteorlogical sense, answer this question: In a negative NAO, meaning the Icelandic low and A/B high are weaker, meaning a weaker ridge in the Atlantic...how are you going to have s stronger trof for recurvature? Kinda makes sense to me that if you have a weaker high flowing into a trof, then the trof has to be weaker as well. That's all I heard in the 2008 season with storms like IKE and such...the trof, the trof.

And folks still confuse the weaker high with "a weakness"...not the same thing. Even though the ridging is weaker, IT'S STILL ridging. And if you have a weaker break in the ridge, it's gonna be a little harder to achieve recurvature.

This is what I was asking about yesterday but didn't have time to elaborate. When the high is stronger, that is, the central pressure is higher, the high overall seems more compact, which gives a path for storms to follow north. When the high is weaker, it spreads out more, removing that path, or at least moving it further west.

Quoting StormW:


What I was referring to was the part of the positive NAO moving the system further west. Folks kind of get the negative and positive phases mixed up. Based on that research article, I have a tendency to look at the NAO in this way: I see folks already talking about the infamous "east coast trof" and re-curvature.

In a meteorlogical sense, answer this question: In a negative NAO, meaning the Icelandic low and A/B high are weaker, meaning a weaker ridge in the Atlantic...how are you going to have stronger trof for recurvature? Kinda makes sense to me that if you have a weaker high flowing into a trof, then the trof has to be weaker as well. That's all I heard in the 2008 season with storms like IKE and such...the trof, the trof.

And folks still confuse the weaker high with "a weakness"...not the same thing. Even though the ridging is weaker, IT'S STILL ridging. And if you have a weaker break in the ridge, it's gonna be a little harder to achieve recurvature.

Ohh I see, that's a great explanation StormW, thanks.

Quoting StormW:
Westcasting always cracked me up anyway.

What is the predominate flow on the southern periphery of a ridge?

West

Quoting StormW:


What I was referring to was the part of the positive NAO moving the system further west. Folks kind of get the negative and positive phases mixed up. Based on that research article, I have a tendency to look at the NAO in this way: I see folks already talking about the infamous "east coast trof" and re-curvature.

In a meteorlogical sense, answer this question: In a negative NAO, meaning the Icelandic low and A/B high are weaker, meaning a weaker ridge in the Atlantic...how are you going to have stronger trof for recurvature? Kinda makes sense to me that if you have a weaker high flowing into a trof, then the trof has to be weaker as well. That's all I heard in the 2008 season with storms like IKE and such...the trof, the trof.

And folks still confuse the weaker high with "a weakness"...not the same thing. Even though the ridging is weaker, IT'S STILL ridging. And if you have a weaker break in the ridge, it's gonna be a little harder to achieve recurvature.

Thats the perfect example of why people need to realize that what makes a year active, more active, less active is because of a slew of different variables not just one thing. Sea surface temps, sal, nao, mjo, trades, shear, troughs...the list goes on. No one thing is gonna change the pattern completely one way or another.

Still a yellow hatch on the NHC site, they moved it slightly south......looks to be a non-threat to the US, other than that, have a productive and healthy thursday......

Quoting StormW:


Now see, you got it!

:D

Regarding NAO, recurvature, and storm tracks, listen to Jeff Masters's radio show Hurricane Haven from last week. He is asked about the NAO and steering and his answer is that he hasn't really looked at the NAO because it is not an important factor for steering, either in the short or long term. He says it's important in the winter, with the implication being that it's not important now.

This matches the conclusions of the NOAA paper StormW has linked to, which refers to the NAO's effects on late fall / winter systems from October-February. Not August.

http://audio-ecast.wunderground.com/wubroadcast/Hurricane_Haven_08_10_10.mp3

Start at the 14:15 mark for Dr. Masters's take on NAO.

Storm, you said:


In a meteorlogical sense, answer this question: In a negative NAO, meaning the Icelandic low and A/B high are weaker, meaning a weaker ridge in the Atlantic...how are you going to have stronger trof for recurvature? Kinda makes sense to me that if you have a weaker high flowing into a trof, then the trof has to be weaker as well. That's all I heard in the 2008 season with storms like IKE and such...the trof, the trof.

Do you know of anything showing what the NAO was then? It fits in with the "stronger storms go north" mantra. Yeah, that may be preferred, but ultimately you have to look at the environment an individual storm is in to determine whether or not that is true. This is why I always caution people not to let their guards down when it looks like a storm is not coming to them.

Henry Margusity says NOT to believe the models and don't follow them as gods. He says it's too early and that the East Coast should watch it. He also did the math, there will be 24 runs of the models before it is near anywhere. I believe him, too far out to call a USA threat or a Fish storm.

Good morning! Storm, one of our local mets mentioned that there was an upgrade done to the GFS recently and that it was not working properly. What are your thoughts on this?

Quoting StormW:


You missed the point of the paper, and what I just posted. I have to respectfully disagree with Dr. Masters on the NAO. IT DOES play a role in steering. What you just mentioed here ( winter systems from October-February. Not August) sets up the "CONDITIONS" for steering storms in the hurricane season. Look at the following, and tell me what you see:



These two seasons were predominately negative NAO patterns....what can you tell me about the Cape Verde systems? Yes some recurves, but how sharp? and U.S. Strikes in general?

Fair enough, Storm, but your argument's not with me. It's with Dr. Masters. I'm just a conduit to his very different opinion.

Quoting reedzone:


West

lol

Quoting StormW:


Yeah...post 2120

Thank you.

ECMWF has a lock on the development of the Verde system..but its kinda interesting over the GOMEX in the model world at and beyond day 6. As the upper ridge currently just W of FL transits west, it leaves a weakness in the northern gulf in its wake...good onshore flow for the Nrn gulf coast....and -ve thickness anomalies over the area start to appear pretty quickly in most ensemble members by Aug 25th. Apparently Patrap hasn't experienced enough convection yet this year..keep the video cam handy :)

Good morning everyone!!!!!!!

Quoting Patrap:


9 Specks,,2 FLounder's, assorted mudcats..and a sunburn.

What about the elusive beer buzz fish?

Quoting IKE:
From last Saturday...

1301. IKE 6:09 AM CDT on August 14, 2010


Looks like a true Cape Verde system by this time next week. All of the models show it.

My prediction...

(1)There will be tons of "west"-casting going on.
(2)A few will say a track to Florida even though it's 4,000 miles away.
(3)Some will say..."aren't you forgetting the islands? They're first and foremost".
(4)Those that like to beat their chests will say...this is what I've been saying would happen. Even though their previous forecasts were wrong.
(5)Some will say....where are the downcasters and season-is-a-bust crowd at now.

........................................


#1....check.

JFV would be perfect to complete item #2. Hey, maybe we could take predictions on who will be the one to complete each item on the list. Go Ike!

Quoting hurricanejunky:


JFV would be perfect to complete item #2. Hey, maybe we could take predictions on who will be the one to complete each item on the list. Go Ike!

lol

ok so, if I understand storm correctly, a strong high with practically no weakness in it will cause recurvature and a high with some weakness brings less chance of recurving and greter chance of westward movement of storms?

thanks storm. good explanation

Quoting sebastianflorida:
They are just models, sometimes they are correct, sometimes not; it is too far out in time, distance, and not developed yet. I'd pay attention maybe every couple of days for now. As of now though, nothing worth watching for hours a day, maybe a 2 minute peak every other day. Your news will let you know if anything might threaten your area in advance. Have a nice day and maybe check back Sunday evening. Three days out if your area is in the cone, I'd advise you to be a bit concerned and start preps at that point. If you start telling people a storm is comming this far out, before it is anything, or is going out to sea, they will laugh cause there is no storm. Do not worry, eventually some area from Georgia to Texas and all points in between will be threatened in 2010, and probably several areas; just waiot and keep a half an eye on thinghs for now.

Uh, I think that was a joke Sebastion...

Howdy all...