Pakistan's Katrina; 94L could develop in Gulf of Mexico
The monsoon season of 2010 continues to generate havoc in Asia, as lingering rains from the latest monsoon low continue to affect hard-hit Pakistan, China, and India. At least 702 are now reported dead and 1,042 are missing in China's Gansu province, due to torrential monsoon rains that triggered a deadly landslide and extreme flooding on Sunday. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, with 500 people missing. Monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. But no country has suffered more than Pakistan, where monsoon floods have destroyed huge portions of the nation's infrastructure and killed at least 1600 people. The number of people affected or needing assistance has been estimated to be as high as 13 million people--8% of the nation's population. The disaster is the worst natural disaster in Pakistan's history, and is rightfully being called "Pakistan's Katrina."
Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.
Monsoons: a primer
In summer, the sun warms up land areas more strongly than ocean areas. This occurs because wind and ocean turbulence mix the ocean's absorbed heat into a "mixed layer" approximately 50 meters deep, whereas on land, the sun's heat penetrates at a slow rate to a limited depth. Furthermore, due to its molecular properties, water has the ability to absorb more heat than the solid materials that make up land. As a result of this summertime differential heating of land and ocean, a low pressure region featuring rising air develops over land areas. Moisture-laden ocean winds blow towards the low pressure region and are drawn upwards once over land. The rising air expands and cools, condensing its moisture into some of the heaviest rains on Earth--the monsoon. Monsoons operate via the same principle as the familiar summer afternoon sea breeze, but on a grand scale. Each summer, monsoons affect every continent on Earth except Antarctica, and are responsible for life-giving rains that sustain the lives of billions of people. In India, home for over 1.1 billion people, the monsoon provides 80% of the annual rainfall. However, monsoons have their dark side as well--hundreds of people in India and surrounding nations die in an average year in floods and landslides triggered by heavy monsoon rains. The most deadly flooding events usually come from monsoon depressions (also known as monsoon lows.) A monsoon depression is similar to (but larger than) a tropical depression. Both are spinning storms hundreds of kilometers in diameter with sustained winds of 50 - 55 kph (30 - 35 mph), nearly calm winds at their center, and generate very heavy rains. Each summer, approximately 6 - 7 monsoon depressions form over the Bay of Bengal and track westwards across India. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in the El Niño-weakened monsoon season of 2009. This year's first monsoon depression formed on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela. A second monsoon depression arrived in Pakistan on August 3, and has brought additional heavy rains.
Are the this year's monsoon floods due to global warming?
No single weather event can be attributed to climate change, but a warming climate does load the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain events decreased over the past 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, "These findings are in tune with model projections and some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios." We should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon floods in coming decades if the climate continues to warm as expected. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are likely to climb dramatically in coming decades.
References
Goswami, et al., 2006, " Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment", Science, 1 December 2006:Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 - 1445 DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027
Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China.
Donations urgently needed
The massive humanitarian crisis in Pakistan requires a huge response by the international community. Wunderblogger Dr. Ricky Rood, author of our Climate Change Blog, has a friend working in Pakistan who underscored the desperate situation there:
This is the worst natural disaster in the history of Pakistan in terms of number of people and area affected. Although not as many people have been killed as in the 2005 earthquake, we have already nearly 900,000 displaced persons thus far just in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Crops are destroyed; shops, hotels, and other business have simply been swept away in Swat, which had just this year been cleared of Taliban and was on the way to recovery; and districts closer to Peshawar and parts of Peshawar district are still, or perhaps again after yesterday/today, under water. After the immediate emergency response, it will be years of rebuilding to replace what has been lost and to start to develop again. I know you have the power to control the weather, so if you cold give us a week or two without more rain at least we could keep the helicopters flying and give people a chance to go to their homes, recover what might still be there, set up tents if we can get enough to them, and start to clean up."
She gave the following recommendations for charities that do work in the flood-ravaged zone, and are effective at getting aid to those who need it the most:
Doctors Without Borders
The International Red Cross
MERLIN medical relief charity
The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.
She mentioned that it is better to send money to the organizations doing the relief work than to try to organize shipments of goods.
Figure 2. Morning radar image of 94L from the Key West radar.
94L
A 1010 mb low pressure system (94L) near the Florida Keys is generating disorganized heavy thunderstorms over Florida and the adjacent waters, and could become a tropical or subtropical depression as early as Wednesday. Current Key West radar shows the rotation of the storm, but the thunderstorm activity has not yet organized into low-level spiral bands. A few areas in the Keys and extreme South Florida have seen 1 - 2 inches of rain thus far from 94L. Wind shear is currently a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 94L, and water temperatures are very warm, 30 - 31°C. Water vapor satellite imagery shows that 94L is forming beneath an upper-level low with plenty of dry air, and there is a substantial flow of dry, continental air wrapping into 94L. This dry air is retarding the development of 94L, and may force the storm to organize into a subtropical storm instead of a tropical storm. A subtropical storm typically has a large, cloud free center of circulation, with very heavy thunderstorm activity in a band removed at least 100 miles from the center. The difference between a subtropical storm and a tropical storm is not that important as far as the winds they can generate, but tropical storms generate more rain. There is no such thing as a subtropical hurricane. If a subtropical storm intensifies enough to have hurricane force winds, than it must have become fully tropical. It usually takes at least two days for a subtropical storm to make the transition to a tropical storm.
Forecast for 94L
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the Gulf of Mexico this week. The storm's main problem will be dry air, and I don't expect 94L to undergo rapid development. Most of the models bring 94L ashore over Louisiana by Thursday, though the GFDL model predicts 94L could stall off the coast and not make landfall until Friday. If 94L does make landfall Thursday, it is unlikely to be a hurricane, due to all the dry air aloft in the Gulf. However, the GFDL model is predicting that the 1-day delay in landfall to Friday will allow 94L enough time to grow fully tropical and intensify into a Category 1 hurricane. I think this solution is unlikely. Storms that get their start underneath a cold, dry, upper-level low very rarely attain hurricane strength in three days. A 40 - 50 mph tropical or subtropical storm at landfall Thursday or Friday is a much more reasonable forecast.
93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) in the middle Atlantic Ocean is close to tropical depression status. The disturbance has a well-defined surface circulation, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which is low enough that 93L could become a tropical depression at any time during that period. NHC is giving 93L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL forecasts that the storm will become a hurricane. A strong trough of low pressure moving across the central Atlantic is recurving 93L to the north, and the system should only be a concern to shipping interests. None of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days, other than for 93L and 94L.
Moscow hits 99°F again today
Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 37°C (99°F) today, the 28th day in row that temperatures have exceeded 30°C (86°F) in Moscow. The average high temperature for August 10 is 21°C (69°F). Moscow's high temperature have averaged 15°C (27°F) above average for the first ten days of August--a truly extraordinary anomaly. Smog and smoke from wildfires continued to blanket the city today, with the Russian Meteorological Agency reporting that pollution due to carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and hydrocarbons exceeding the safe limit by factors of 1.2 - 2.2. Air pollution levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level on Saturday. As I reported in yesterday's post, the heat wave has likely killed at least 15,000 people in Russia so far. There is some slight relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures of 31 - 33°C (88 - 91°F) Wednesday though Sunday--still 20°F above normal, but better than the 27°F above normal so far this month.
"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on my blog during the show. You can also email the questions to me today before the show: jmasters@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line. Some topics I'll cover today on the show:
1) Invest 94 and 93
2) A look ahead at the coming two weeks
3) Status of La Niña
Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 — Blog Index
What affect do you think this big ridge up to the north will have on it, if any?
Link
WTNT25 KNHC 102330
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
2330 UTC WED AUG 11 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 84.1W AT 11/2330Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 84.1W AT 11/2330Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 83.9W
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.8N 85.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 28.1N 87.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 29.0N 89.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 29.7N 90.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 31.0N 92.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 33.0N 90.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 84.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
yup that is how I view it as well
WTNT25 KNHC 102330
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
2330 UTC WED AUG 11 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 84.1W AT 11/2330Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 84.1W AT 11/2330Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 83.9W
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.8N 85.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 28.1N 87.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 29.0N 89.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 29.7N 90.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 31.0N 92.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 33.0N 90.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 84.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Yep we have TD 5!
*cough* 5 *cough* 5
LOL!
Close....
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS.
from one of my sources :) Break points don't seem right but lets see what happens
And recheck the Loose items in the yard and secure them if the threat approaches.
Ike is the Chris Bosh of Hurricanes
They have the disturbance east of Barbados east of the islands in 3 days.
Taking its time.
nuts or no nuts?? Rainman says I'd better get to bakin'...
Dean and Felix are hard to forget, sorry!
Hurricane Preparation 2010
LOL.
yeah, here in Puerto Rico we watch anything that comes off of Africa
I worked Katrina from Bay St Louis to Biloxi and Galveston for Ike as a disaster responder. I was deployed for 6 months for Katrina and 6 weeks for Ike. 30 feet of surge in Bat St Louis, 4-6 feet in Biloxi (tidal surge did damages clear past Mobile); compared to 1-10 feet from Galveston to LA/MS border.
That's awfully cold!
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
730 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE HAS JUST COMPLETED ITS
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THEY CONFIRMED THAT A SURFACE
CIRCULATION WAS PRESENT...AND THERE IS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION TO CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM ALONG THE PROJECTED
PATH OF THE CYCLONE...BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT IS NOT
IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING WITH INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM AS DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. ONLY THE GFDL SOLUTION
SHOWS MORE THAN MODEST STRENGTHENING...BUT THAT MODEL HAS BEEN
KNOWN TO HAVE A HIGH BIAS AT TIMES. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE RELIABLE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL LGEM
INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND TO THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
SINCE THE CENTER IS STILL A BIT BROAD...THE INITIAL MOTION...
315/05...IS MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH SHOULD PRODUCE A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME
ACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS.
GIVEN THAT THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED SO CLOSE TO THE
TIME OF THE SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...THE NEXT ADVISORY ON
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AT 0300 UTC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/2330Z 26.0N 84.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 26.8N 85.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 28.1N 87.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 29.0N 89.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 12/1800Z 29.7N 90.6W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 13/1800Z 31.0N 92.0W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 14/1800Z 33.0N 90.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
NNNN
Statement as of 7:30 PM EDT on August 10, 2010
...Tropical depression forms over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico...
summary of 730 PM EDT...2330 UTC...information
----------------------------------------------
location...26.0n 84.1w
about 260 mi...420 km SSE of Apalachicola Florida
about 375 mi...600 km se of the mouth of the Mississippi River
maximum sustained winds...35 mph...55 km/hr
present movement...NW or 315 degrees at 6 mph...9 km/hr
minimum central pressure...1007 mb...29.74 inches
watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...
a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the northern Gulf of
Mexico coast from Destin Florida to Intracoastal City
Louisiana...including Lake Pontchartrain and New Orleans.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect...
a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Destin Florida to Intracoastal City Louisiana...including Lake
Pontchartrain and New Orleans
a Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States...including possible inland watches and warnings...please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 730 PM EDT...2330 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression Five
was located near latitude 26.0 north...longitude 84.1 west. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph...9 km/hr a
gradual turn toward the west-northwest with an increase in forward
speed is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track...the center
of the tropical cyclone will be approaching the north central Gulf
of Mexico by late Wednesday or early Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is expected...and the depression is
forecast to become a tropical storm on Wednesday.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.
Hazards affecting land
----------------------
rainfall...total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with isolated
maximum amounts of 8 to 10 inches are possible along the northern
and northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast.
Wind...tropical storm conditions are expected to begin affecting the
Tropical Storm Warning area by late Wednesday...making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.
Storm surge...a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above ground level along the immediate coast near and to
the east of where the center makes landfall.
Next advisory
-------------
next advisory...1100 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Kimberlain
Except that has not occurred yet.
Andrew was an unusual Hurricane as most of its damage and death was wind related due to its small size. Katrina was unusual for the U.S. in recent Hurricane history because it caused most of its deaths were caused by storm surge alone. Before Katrina only 1% of deaths occurred from storm surge in America between 1970-1999 which I find interesting. The findings are from Ed Rappaport.It would be far higher of a percentage if figures from 1900-1969 were added.
90% of deaths in TC's are caused by surge and its affects.
PATH OF THE CYCLONE...BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT IS NOT
IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING WITH INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM AS DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. .......
No rapid intensification based on what the NHC says. The gulf coast will survive. This should be inland in 2 days.
Amen!
E-mail Updates
Audio/Podcasts
GIS Data | RSS XML/RSS logo
Help with Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Atlantic and E Pacific
Analysis Tools
Gridded Marine
Help with Marine
Hurricane Awareness
Be Prepared | Learn
Frequent Questions
Research
Hurricane Hunters
Saffir-Simpson Scale
Forecasting Models
Glossary/Acronyms
Storm Names
Breakpoints
Hurricane History
Seasons Archive
Forecast Accuracy
Climatology
Most Extreme
About the NHC
Mission and Vision
Personnel | Visitors
NHC Virtual Tour
Library
Joint Hurr Testbed
The NCEP Centers
Contact Us – Help
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
Tropical Depression FIVE Forecast/Advisory
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive
US Watch/Warning
000
WTNT25 KNHC 102330
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
2330 UTC WED AUG 11 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 84.1W AT 11/2330Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 84.1W AT 11/2330Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 83.9W
Viewing: 1951 - 2001
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 — Blog Index