Moscow hits 102°F; hottest day ever in Finland; 90L a long-range theat
At 4pm local time today in Moscow, Russia, the temperature surpassed 100°F for the first time in recorded history. The high temperature of 100.8°F (37.8°C) recorded at the Moscow Observatory, the official weather location for Moscow, beat Moscow's previous record of 99.5°F (37.5°C), set just three days ago, on July 26. Prior to 2010, Moscow's hottest temperature of all-time was 36.6°C (98.2°F), set in August, 1920. Records in Moscow go back to 1879. Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C) today. Finland also recorded its hottest temperature in its history today, when the mercury hit 99°F (37.2°C) at Joensuu. The old (undisputed) record was 95°F (35°C) at Jvaskyla on July 9, 1914. There is little relief in sight, as the latest forecast for Moscow predicts continued highs in the 90s for most of the coming week.
A remarkable year for extreme heat
Finland's new national heat record makes it the fourteenth country (or semi-independent territory) to break an all-time hottest temperature record this year. My source for extreme temperature records is Chris Burt, author of the book Extreme Weather. July in Moscow is easily going to smash the record for hottest month in Moscow's history. By my rough estimate, the temperature has been 18°F (10°C) above average this month. The record hottest July, in 1938, had temperatures 5.3°C above average. Given that the planet as a whole has seen record high temperatures the past four months in a row, it should not be a surprise to see unprecedented heat waves like the Russian heat wave. A record warm planet "loads the dice" in favor of regional heat waves more extreme than anything experienced in recorded history.
Figure 1. Russia's heat wave has contributed to a severe fire season this July. Fires on dry peat bogs east of Moscow are covering the city with smoke as this photo taken yesterday (July 28, 2010.) Tiny red dots indicate hot spots of high surface temperatures associated with fires, and multiple clusters of such dots appear east of Moscow. Dull gray smoke mixes with opaque white clouds east and northeast of the capital city. Air pollution levels in Moscow due to the smoke and smog are so high that residents have been warned to stay home rather than go in to work. Firefighters are battling 340 blazes across Russia covering 86,658 hectares (214,136 acres) amid a drought that led the government to declare weather-related emergencies in 23 crop-producing regions. Agriculture Minister Yelena Skrynnik said on July 23 that the drought had damaged 10.1 million hectares, or 32 percent of all land under cultivation, according to Bloomberg. Raging fires have destroyed hundreds of houses across Russia today and forced mass evacuations in the city of Voronezh, 300 miles southeast of Moscow, according to the Associated Press. Image credit: NASA's Aqua satellite.
Fourteen extreme national high temperature records have been set in 2010
This year now ranks in second place for the most number of countries that have set extreme heat records, according to a list supplied to me today by Chris Burt. The new list removes a number of old disputed records, resulting in the year 2007 surpassing 2010 as the year with the most extreme heat records--fifteen. Keep in mind that the matter of determining extreme records is very difficult, and it is often a judgment call as to whether an old record is reliable or not. The list of countries (225) includes islands that are not independent countries, such as Puerto Rico and Greenland. One-third (33%) of those heat records were set in the past ten years. Ten years have had extreme heat records set at five or more countries on Mr. Burt's list:
2007: 15 records
2010: 14 records
2003: 12 records
2005: 11 records
1998: 9 records
1983: 9 records
2009: 6 records
2000: 5 records
1999: 5 records
1987: 5 records
I highly recommend the book Extreme Weather by Chris Burt for those interested in weather records. I thank Mr. Burt and weather record researchers Maximiliano Herrera and Howard Rainford for their assistance identifying this year's new extreme temperature records. Here's a list of the fourteen nations that have set extreme heat records this year:
Finland recorded its hottest temperature on July 29, 2010, when the mercury hit 99°F (37.2°C) at Joensuu. The old (undisputed) record was 95°F (35°C) at Jvaskyla on July 9, 1914.
Qatar had its hottest temperature in history on July 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 50.4°C (122.7°F) at Doha Airport.
Russia had its hottest temperature in history on July 11, when the mercury rose to 44.0°C (111.2°F) in Yashkul, Kalmykia Republic, in the European portion of Russia near the Kazakhstan border. The previous hottest temperature in Russia (not including the former Soviet republics) was the 43.8°C (110.8°F) reading measured at Alexander Gaj, Kalmykia Republic, on August 6, 1940. The remarkable heat in Russia this year has not been limited just to the European portion of the country--the Asian portion of Russia also recorded its hottest temperature in history this year, a 42.3°C (108.1°F) reading at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China. The previous record for the Asian portion of Russia was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at nearby Aksha on July 21, 2004.
Sudan recorded its hottest temperature in its history on June 25 when the mercury rose to 49.6°C (121.3°F) at Dongola. The previous record was 49.5°C (121.1°F) set in July 1987 in Aba Hamed.
Niger tied its record for hottest day in history on June 22, 2010, when the temperature reached 47.1°C (116.8°F) at Bilma. That record stood for just one day, as Bilma broke the record again on June 23, when the mercury topped out at 48.2°C (118.8°F). The previous record was 47.1°C on May 24, 1998, also at Bilma.
Saudi Arabia had its hottest temperature ever on June 22, 2010, with a reading of 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Jeddah, the second largest city in Saudi Arabia. The previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F), at Abqaiq, date unknown. The record heat was accompanied by a sandstorm, which caused eight power plants to go offline, resulting in blackouts to several Saudi cities.
Chad had its hottest day in history on June 22, 2010, when the temperature reached 47.6°C (117.7°F) at Faya. The previous record was 47.4°C (117.3°F) at Faya on June 3 and June 9, 1961.
Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature in history on June 15 in Abdaly, according to the Kuwait Met office. The mercury hit 52.6°C (126.7°F). Kuwait's previous all-time hottest temperature was 51.9°C (125.4°F), on July 27,2007, at Abdaly. Temperatures reached 51°C (123.8°F) in the capital of Kuwait City on June 15, 2010.
Iraq had its hottest day in history on June 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Basra. Iraq's previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F) set August 8, 1937, in Ash Shu'aybah.
Pakistan had its hottest temperature in history on May 26, when the mercury hit an astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) at the town of MohenjuDaro, according to the Pakistani Meteorological Department. While this temperature reading must be reviewed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for authenticity, not only is the 128.3°F reading the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, it is the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia.
Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 12, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu, according to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology. Myanmar's previous hottest temperature was 45.8°C (114.4°F) at Minbu, Magwe division on May 9, 1998. According to Chris Burt, author of the authoritative weather records book Extreme Weather, the 47°C measured this year is the hottest temperature in Southeast Asia history.
Ascention Island (St. Helena, a U.K. Territory) had its hottest temperature in history on March 25, 2010, when the mercury hit 34.9°C (94.8°C) at Georgetown. The previous record was 34.0°C (93.2°F) at Georgetown in April 2003, exact day unknown.
The Solomon Islands had their hottest temperature in history on February 1, 2010, when the mercury hit 36.1°C (97°F) at Lata Nendo (Ndeni). The previous record for Solomon Islands was 35.6°C (96.0°F) at Honaiara, date unknown.
Columbia had its hottest temperature in history on January 24, 2010, when Puerto Salgar hit 42.3°C (108°F). The previous record was 42.0°C (107.6°F) at El Salto in March 1988 (exact day unknown).
90L forms in far eastern Atlantic
NHC has designated an area of thunderstorms in the tropical Atlantic as Invest 90L (8.5 N, 30.0 W). Microwave remote sensing suggests there are some decent thunderstorms in 90L, as peak rain rates were around 1 - 2 inches per hour. According to CIMMS wind-shear analyses, 90L is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and upper level winds over the disturbance are diverging, which creates a vacuum effect that will enhance updrafts and thunderstorm growth. The disturbance is tracking into a broad area of weak shear to the west and northwest. The steering currents for 90L are to the west-northwest, which will move it into this area of weaker shear. The disturbance is at 8°N latitude, which is too close to the Equator to leverage the Earth's spin very well to spin up. As 90L's west-northwest motion carries it farther from the Equator, the additional spin the disturbance gains from the Earth's rotation will aid development, particularly once 90L gets north of 10°N latitude.The Saharan Air Layer with its dust and dry air lurks just to the north of 90L, but the SHIPS model predicts 90L will remain far enough from the dry air over the next five days so that it will not interfere with development.
Figure 2. IR Satellite Composite of 90L taken at 5:40 pm EDT.
Figure 3. Saharan Air Layer analysis courtesy of the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group.
Model Forecasts and Climatology
The latest 2pm EDT (18Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models show 90L developing into a hurricane 3 - 5 days from now. These models suggest that 90L will pass well northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The 18Z GFS model develops 90L into a tropical storm about 7 days from now, and forecasts a track through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. The 18Z NOGAPS and 12Z ECMWF models show little development of 90L. The GFDL and HWRF models are too aggressive developing 90L, and likely show too much of a northward motion due to excessive depth of the system they portray. The GFS solution, showing a more delayed development and possible threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands is probably more reasonable. Looking at climatology based on research done by Dr. Bob Hart at Florida State University,, 90L has a 36% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by 2pm Saturday. NHC is putting these odds at 20%. Dr. Hart also has an experimental product showing that historically, about 30% of all tropical cyclones at 90L's current position eventually hit land as a hurricane. Of course, 90L is not yet a tropical cyclone, but these odds suggest that 90L has the potential to become a dangerous Cape Verdes-type hurricane that will affect land.
Next update
I'll have an update by 8pm Friday.
Jeff Masters (with lots of help from Rob Carver on the 90L portion of the post!)
Reader Comments
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Moderator-Pro Met he nailed Bonnie
I told u this wuld lead to AGW. <_<
And Dr. Masters actually made a more tropical-based blog post, and it still comes back to that topic.
Just thought that needed to be said. No reason to get mad at people that are talking about the topic that is actually in the blog above haha. Gezzz.
Moderator-Pro Met wxman57
STORM2K.ORG
I think this one may have a fair shot at developing. I notice that convection is on the decrease over the past 6 hours or so, though. If you look at a WV loop you can see why. Earlier today, it was near the southeast side of a weak upper-level low center. But as the day progressed, it moved past the axis of the low center and out of the more favorable lift environment. The key over the next 24 hours is whether or not convection redevelops, perhaps with the addition of more energy from the east as some models suggest.
Could be a NE Caribbean threat around next Wednesday and a southeast U.S. threat the following weekend. Models do indicate a slowing of its forward speed near the Bahamas. Lots of uncertainty that far out.
Moderator-Pro Met wxman57
STORM2K.ORG
///////////
scott39
THIS FOR
Yes, but don't you know that global warming also is responsible for those cold temperatures???
It would fit with the recent pattern of TUTT lows cutting off in the SW ATL and drifting west under/south of the big upper ridge over the northern GOM, the SE and TX. Adding wind shear to anything approaching the Bahamas. So it might not be totally "wrong".
Like Bonnie and her ULLS. And the one in the western Caribbean now. That pattern has been persistent for a while imo. Whether it continues...eh! Idle speculation-but might be a factor. Might not.
The GFS does finally get 90L tucked in under the upper ridge later in the run-over the Gulf Stream.
Yes I am not the only one. It is a common term.....and I took a liking to it.
Hummm, 7000+ (how many views?) posts on the subject with the last blog? How do you think this site makes its money ? :)
I really wish 90L would put on a big convective show for us tonight and head GW talk off at the pass, but it has to detach itself and become self-sustaining, so it's probably going to be a matter of watching the structure for a while yet.
lots of Pro Met i meaning alot.
Okay. Sorry about this guys, but I've been provoked!
First of all, here are the facts:
If the 2011 La Nina does shape up to what it's going to be, then we will see one of the coldest years ever in the satellite era. Top 5 coldest.
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2011.1jul2010.gif
Definitely in a warming world, as you say we are!
In unanimous agreement with the CFS.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images1/glbT2mSea.gif
*Repost*
I also notice a correlation in Sea Ice daily, when I look at the University of Illinois' Cyrosphere today. When the Arctic sea ice goes down, the Antarctic goes up. It's really funny, and can be seen in these two images:
Notice how the Arctic is coming up from a ow point, but the overall trend is down
Yet the Antarctic is coming out of a highpoint, but the overall trend is up.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/
Also the melting of ice starts becoming more rapid in 2000. Funny you say that, as that is when the AMO turned positive.
The PDO and AMO both warm, combined, distort the Global Heat Budget to favor warm, and for it to be further north, explaining why the Arctic is losing ice, and the Antarctic is gaining ice.
http://www.accuweather.com/video/111162007001/one-more-look-at-the-coming-cooling.asp?channel=vbbas taj
The Arctic was feeling an impact from the warm PDO, and even a bigger impacted from the warm AMO, so what do you think will happen when the PDO turns cold, and the AMO turns cold...
The PDO is starting to turn cold...
The world warms because the oceans warm, because of natural oscillations, and the oceans make up 70% of the globe. Makes sense doesn't it? But a .01% gas having more influence than that? Not much.
I have been in weather for a very long time and never heard it used until this blog but whatever it is just a word. Just not common in the met world.
ZING!
We had that blog for days though.
According to some definitions,an Ice Age is any time when we have ice caps. Under that definition we are in an interglaclial period of the current ice age.
One thing that I found very interesting was the fact that the Vikings were able to navigate areas around Iceland and Greenland that have opened up in the past few years. My fascination has more to do with the historical aspect than the GW debate.
The descriptions of the ENSO are also fascinating, especially since its been a topic of discussion here on the blog this season.
But remember Invest 98L just across from Bonnie when she was the center of attention? That one was perfectly aligned between two upper lows and the ridge caused it to nearly become Colin in the western Gulf of Mexico. The upper trough-splitting pattern is far more of a favorable one for tropical development than a pattern where it's just the TUTT. You can just as easily get storms tucked neatly between two upper lows as getting them misaligned so that they get sheared. And as the heart of the season matures, you get more ridges than lows. The trough-splitting is actually very concerning for what is to come.
Just watch these waves as they approach the TUTT and cut-off upper lows. They are scary when they get ventilated in the right place.
It's even simpler than that. Just follow the money. Does anyone know what an 'indulgence' was (in reference to the catholic church)? Research that then think "AlGore and Carbon offsets". ...and we the logical thinking rational producers refuse to buy their 'indulgences' they will force it upon us with 'Cap and Trade'.
Stay wise my fellow producers. The Moochers are at hand.
and it better than OMG or the sky is falling.. etc etc etc... Its kinda growin on me..
From the services it provides to corporate clients, news organizations etc. They don't have enough hits on the blogs to make any significant revenue from it.
?????
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