Moscow hits 102°F; hottest day ever in Finland; 90L a long-range theat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 01:54 AM GMT del 30 Luglio 2010

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At 4pm local time today in Moscow, Russia, the temperature surpassed 100°F for the first time in recorded history. The high temperature of 100.8°F (37.8°C) recorded at the Moscow Observatory, the official weather location for Moscow, beat Moscow's previous record of 99.5°F (37.5°C), set just three days ago, on July 26. Prior to 2010, Moscow's hottest temperature of all-time was 36.6°C (98.2°F), set in August, 1920. Records in Moscow go back to 1879. Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C) today. Finland also recorded its hottest temperature in its history today, when the mercury hit 99°F (37.2°C) at Joensuu. The old (undisputed) record was 95°F (35°C) at Jvaskyla on July 9, 1914. There is little relief in sight, as the latest forecast for Moscow predicts continued highs in the 90s for most of the coming week.

A remarkable year for extreme heat
Finland's new national heat record makes it the fourteenth country (or semi-independent territory) to break an all-time hottest temperature record this year. My source for extreme temperature records is Chris Burt, author of the book Extreme Weather. July in Moscow is easily going to smash the record for hottest month in Moscow's history. By my rough estimate, the temperature has been 18°F (10°C) above average this month. The record hottest July, in 1938, had temperatures 5.3°C above average. Given that the planet as a whole has seen record high temperatures the past four months in a row, it should not be a surprise to see unprecedented heat waves like the Russian heat wave. A record warm planet "loads the dice" in favor of regional heat waves more extreme than anything experienced in recorded history.


Figure 1. Russia's heat wave has contributed to a severe fire season this July. Fires on dry peat bogs east of Moscow are covering the city with smoke as this photo taken yesterday (July 28, 2010.) Tiny red dots indicate hot spots of high surface temperatures associated with fires, and multiple clusters of such dots appear east of Moscow. Dull gray smoke mixes with opaque white clouds east and northeast of the capital city. Air pollution levels in Moscow due to the smoke and smog are so high that residents have been warned to stay home rather than go in to work. Firefighters are battling 340 blazes across Russia covering 86,658 hectares (214,136 acres) amid a drought that led the government to declare weather-related emergencies in 23 crop-producing regions. Agriculture Minister Yelena Skrynnik said on July 23 that the drought had damaged 10.1 million hectares, or 32 percent of all land under cultivation, according to Bloomberg. Raging fires have destroyed hundreds of houses across Russia today and forced mass evacuations in the city of Voronezh, 300 miles southeast of Moscow, according to the Associated Press. Image credit: NASA's Aqua satellite.

Fourteen extreme national high temperature records have been set in 2010
This year now ranks in second place for the most number of countries that have set extreme heat records, according to a list supplied to me today by Chris Burt. The new list removes a number of old disputed records, resulting in the year 2007 surpassing 2010 as the year with the most extreme heat records--fifteen. Keep in mind that the matter of determining extreme records is very difficult, and it is often a judgment call as to whether an old record is reliable or not. The list of countries (225) includes islands that are not independent countries, such as Puerto Rico and Greenland. One-third (33%) of those heat records were set in the past ten years. Ten years have had extreme heat records set at five or more countries on Mr. Burt's list:

2007: 15 records
2010: 14 records
2003: 12 records
2005: 11 records
1998: 9 records
1983: 9 records
2009: 6 records
2000: 5 records
1999: 5 records
1987: 5 records

I highly recommend the book Extreme Weather by Chris Burt for those interested in weather records. I thank Mr. Burt and weather record researchers Maximiliano Herrera and Howard Rainford for their assistance identifying this year's new extreme temperature records. Here's a list of the fourteen nations that have set extreme heat records this year:

Finland recorded its hottest temperature on July 29, 2010, when the mercury hit 99°F (37.2°C) at Joensuu. The old (undisputed) record was 95°F (35°C) at Jvaskyla on July 9, 1914.

Qatar had its hottest temperature in history on July 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 50.4°C (122.7°F) at Doha Airport.

Russia had its hottest temperature in history on July 11, when the mercury rose to 44.0°C (111.2°F) in Yashkul, Kalmykia Republic, in the European portion of Russia near the Kazakhstan border. The previous hottest temperature in Russia (not including the former Soviet republics) was the 43.8°C (110.8°F) reading measured at Alexander Gaj, Kalmykia Republic, on August 6, 1940. The remarkable heat in Russia this year has not been limited just to the European portion of the country--the Asian portion of Russia also recorded its hottest temperature in history this year, a 42.3°C (108.1°F) reading at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China. The previous record for the Asian portion of Russia was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at nearby Aksha on July 21, 2004.

Sudan recorded its hottest temperature in its history on June 25 when the mercury rose to 49.6°C (121.3°F) at Dongola. The previous record was 49.5°C (121.1°F) set in July 1987 in Aba Hamed.

Niger tied its record for hottest day in history on June 22, 2010, when the temperature reached 47.1°C (116.8°F) at Bilma. That record stood for just one day, as Bilma broke the record again on June 23, when the mercury topped out at 48.2°C (118.8°F). The previous record was 47.1°C on May 24, 1998, also at Bilma.

Saudi Arabia had its hottest temperature ever on June 22, 2010, with a reading of 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Jeddah, the second largest city in Saudi Arabia. The previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F), at Abqaiq, date unknown. The record heat was accompanied by a sandstorm, which caused eight power plants to go offline, resulting in blackouts to several Saudi cities.

Chad had its hottest day in history on June 22, 2010, when the temperature reached 47.6°C (117.7°F) at Faya. The previous record was 47.4°C (117.3°F) at Faya on June 3 and June 9, 1961.

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature in history on June 15 in Abdaly, according to the Kuwait Met office. The mercury hit 52.6°C (126.7°F). Kuwait's previous all-time hottest temperature was 51.9°C (125.4°F), on July 27,2007, at Abdaly. Temperatures reached 51°C (123.8°F) in the capital of Kuwait City on June 15, 2010.

Iraq had its hottest day in history on June 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Basra. Iraq's previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F) set August 8, 1937, in Ash Shu'aybah.

Pakistan had its hottest temperature in history on May 26, when the mercury hit an astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) at the town of MohenjuDaro, according to the Pakistani Meteorological Department. While this temperature reading must be reviewed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for authenticity, not only is the 128.3°F reading the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, it is the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia.

Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 12, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu, according to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology. Myanmar's previous hottest temperature was 45.8°C (114.4°F) at Minbu, Magwe division on May 9, 1998. According to Chris Burt, author of the authoritative weather records book Extreme Weather, the 47°C measured this year is the hottest temperature in Southeast Asia history.

Ascention Island (St. Helena, a U.K. Territory) had its hottest temperature in history on March 25, 2010, when the mercury hit 34.9°C (94.8°C) at Georgetown. The previous record was 34.0°C (93.2°F) at Georgetown in April 2003, exact day unknown.

The Solomon Islands had their hottest temperature in history on February 1, 2010, when the mercury hit 36.1°C (97°F) at Lata Nendo (Ndeni). The previous record for Solomon Islands was 35.6°C (96.0°F) at Honaiara, date unknown.

Columbia had its hottest temperature in history on January 24, 2010, when Puerto Salgar hit 42.3°C (108°F). The previous record was 42.0°C (107.6°F) at El Salto in March 1988 (exact day unknown).

90L forms in far eastern Atlantic
NHC has designated an area of thunderstorms in the tropical Atlantic as Invest 90L (8.5 N, 30.0 W). Microwave remote sensing suggests there are some decent thunderstorms in 90L, as peak rain rates were around 1 - 2 inches per hour. According to CIMMS wind-shear analyses, 90L is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and upper level winds over the disturbance are diverging, which creates a vacuum effect that will enhance updrafts and thunderstorm growth. The disturbance is tracking into a broad area of weak shear to the west and northwest. The steering currents for 90L are to the west-northwest, which will move it into this area of weaker shear. The disturbance is at 8°N latitude, which is too close to the Equator to leverage the Earth's spin very well to spin up. As 90L's west-northwest motion carries it farther from the Equator, the additional spin the disturbance gains from the Earth's rotation will aid development, particularly once 90L gets north of 10°N latitude.The Saharan Air Layer with its dust and dry air lurks just to the north of 90L, but the SHIPS model predicts 90L will remain far enough from the dry air over the next five days so that it will not interfere with development.


Figure 2. IR Satellite Composite of 90L taken at 5:40 pm EDT.


Figure 3. Saharan Air Layer analysis courtesy of the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group.

Model Forecasts and Climatology
The latest 2pm EDT (18Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models show 90L developing into a hurricane 3 - 5 days from now. These models suggest that 90L will pass well northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The 18Z GFS model develops 90L into a tropical storm about 7 days from now, and forecasts a track through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. The 18Z NOGAPS and 12Z ECMWF models show little development of 90L. The GFDL and HWRF models are too aggressive developing 90L, and likely show too much of a northward motion due to excessive depth of the system they portray. The GFS solution, showing a more delayed development and possible threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands is probably more reasonable. Looking at climatology based on research done by Dr. Bob Hart at Florida State University,, 90L has a 36% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by 2pm Saturday. NHC is putting these odds at 20%. Dr. Hart also has an experimental product showing that historically, about 30% of all tropical cyclones at 90L's current position eventually hit land as a hurricane. Of course, 90L is not yet a tropical cyclone, but these odds suggest that 90L has the potential to become a dangerous Cape Verdes-type hurricane that will affect land.

Next update
I'll have an update by 8pm Friday.

Jeff Masters (with lots of help from Rob Carver on the 90L portion of the post!)

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1571. divdog
Quoting Jeff9641:
90L looks like it is going to be one big storm. This will take a few days to get itself together and once it does then the northern leeward islands to the Bahamas then to SE US coast need to be ready to react to what could be one monster storm. Steering current look pretty straight forward so this one will be interesting to say the least.
would you please quit trying to forecast where this is going. you dont have a clue where its going so quit scaring people who don't know better than to listen to this. you don't know if its going to be a MONSTER. steering currents are never straight forward in the long run so quit acting like they are.
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1567. IKE
Quoting Bipartisanship:


It's had a storm over them since June 1st.


Not sure what that models problem is. It's spinning up vorticity down there and sending it west, repeatedly.
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currently at the NASA shuttle landing facility, its 97 with a heat index of 113
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1559. xcool
Let The Fun Begin
Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1558. IKE
Quoting Bipartisanship:


It wishes, Ike! Also, I see that it continues with it's Belize storm fetish.


lol
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1557. OpusDei
Hi all. Just wanted to give a friendly hello to everyone from a weather pseudo-newbie. I have been lurking here for a year or so and have enjoyed reading and learning. I am a mathematician and flight instructor and have been interested in weather for years. Most of my weather experience is from aviation weather (Skew-T, Hodographs, basic charts, progs etc).
Anyhow, I would like to get involved in learning about topical development so could you guys recommend some good online resources for learning about formation,shear,etc. Charts/progs, etc. etc. Anyhow thanks again.
OpusDei
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1556. hydrus
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
12z NOGAPS 180 hours.

Thats the 9th time the NOGAPS model has had a storm hit Nicaragua this season. I would say that it is a safe bet that the people in that country do not like the NOGAPS model...It has to many gaps.
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1555. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG
22W/23W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
AREA OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM BUT DIFFLUENCE ALONG
THE ITCZ IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION AROUND THE WAVE AXIS AND IS
NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 15N38W TO
7N35W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE 1010 MB LOW HAS BEEN LEFT BEHIND
AND IS DISCUSSED IN THE ITCZ SECTION. WEAK WAVE JUST TO THE SE
OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND IS AT A LOW AMPLITUDE WITH ANY ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 17N61W ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES TO INLAND OVER N VENEZUELA NEAR 10N66W
MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE REMAINS POSITIVELY TILTED AND EMBEDDED
WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N63W
TO 13N70W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 17N83W TO 9N76W MOVING
W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE ORIENTATION HAS BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND
THEREFORE IS WEAKENING. WAVE REMAINS TO THE W OF AN UPPER RIDGE
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N16W 9N26W THROUGH A 1010 MB
SURFACE LOW NEAR 9N32W THEN RESUMES ALONG 7N39W 7N50W INTO THE S
CARIBBEAN ALONG 11N66W 12N82W ACROSS S NICARAGUA/NW COSTA RICA
INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 18W-28W AND FROM
11N-16N BETWEEN 53-62W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOT
THE AREA FROM 1N-11N BETWEEN 31W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
COVERING THE N GULF N OF 25N WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER S MEXICO
NEAR 17N94W COVERING THE S GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA ALONG 24N86W TO 22N93W. THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE N GULF IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM
26N87W TO OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N91W AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W GULF WITH A 1019 MB
HIGH NEAR 27N93W AND A SECOND 1019 MB HIGH INLAND OVER MEXICO
NEAR 20N98W. ALL THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W ANCHORED NEAR
16N80W AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LOW COVERING THE S GULF OF
MEXICO IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 77W-87W. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND WITH THE TYPICAL UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY DESCRIBED
IN THE ITCZ SECTION THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
S OF 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
THE ITCZ AND AN UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN THE E PACIFIC REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC AND WITH A FRONT
AND A SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BUT IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W ATLC FROM
26N-32N BETWEEN 67W-76W. A SHARP NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N57W TO JUST E OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 17N61W AND IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY DESCRIBED IN
THE ITCZ SECTION AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC
ANCHORED BY A HIGH WELL N OF THE AZORES EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS
THROUGH 32N51W TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 24N75W. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY SAHARAN AIR MASS SURGING
INTO THE FAR E ATLC S OF 30N TO ABOUT 25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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1554. xcool
CybrTeddy .African wave so hungry
Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Afternoon all!

Colin, Danielle, both, or neither? The further develop of these two waves will be one of the more interesting tropical scenarios of recent years, as it appears.
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Quoting xcool:


nice. pull 90l in to big mom wave me so hungry
Yep, the low associated with 90L is drifting into the tropical wave.
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Quoting StormW:


You are very welcome!, and Thank You as well!

You are welcome, sweet one. :)
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Here's a weather news story about the fog here in Sydney and also in Brisbane in relation to the photo's i stupidly posted earlier.

Flights delayed as fog shrouds major airports
Friday July 30, 2010 - 07:22 EST

Sydney Airport is warning passengers to expect some delays as flight patterns return to normal after disruptions caused by thick fog early this morning.

Two international flights had to be diverted to Melbourne because of the weather.

But an airport spokesman says most flights are now taking off and landing as scheduled and there is not a significant backlog.

Ferries are running to the timetable and the RTA is urging motorists to drive carefully in the conditions.

Brisbane Airport has reopened but there are still lengthy delays because of this morning's heavy fog.

Ferry services in the city have also resumed.

Earlier, visibility was down to less than 200 metres in some areas.


ABC 2010


Morning peak hour traffic in Brisbane makes its way through thick fog
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Quoting xcool:


nice. pull 90l in to big mom wave me so hungry


90L's getting sucked into the African wave.
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1546. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:


The ECMWF


It's been flip-flopping long-term, which is understandable. Interested to see what the 12Z run shows.
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Quoting ho77yw00d:


beautiful

Thanks! :)
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1544. xcool


nice. pull 90l in to big mom wave me so hungry
Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting StormW:


Nogaps looks like it has measles!
LOL!
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Quoting StormW:


Doing great! How about you?

Really good here! Thanks! Oh by the way thank you Storm very much for all of your information and patience that you provide here on the blog I've learned a lot from you. :)
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
12z NOGAPS 180 hours.

do you think the storm it shows making landfall on florida is 90L?
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1538. Drakoen
Quoting IKE:


The CMC.

12Z NOGAPS through 180 hours.


The ECMWF
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Quoting StormGoddess:
Good afternoon, everybody! :)
Photobucket


beautiful
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Quoting JeffMasters:
An addendum to my post last night:

There has been one record coldest day ever so far in 2010, Guinea had its coldest temperature in history in January 9, 2010, when the mercury hit 1.4°C (34.5°F) at Mali-ville in the Labe region. Of the 229 countries with extreme coldest temperature records, 15 of these records have occurred in the past ten years (6.5% of all countries). There have been five times as many (74) extreme hottest temperature records in the past ten years (33% of all countries.)

Jeff Masters

Dr.
Earlier this week the Top End of Australia has been experiencing record breaking high temps this winter.

Record heat bathes the north

Wednesday July 28, 2010 - 20:32 EST

Temperatures have been rising to the low-to-mid 30s in northern Australia, five to 10 degrees above average, record-breaking in places.

Today a 90-year July record was broken in Roebourne in the WA Pilbara, where it hit 35 degrees, eight above average.

Also in the Pilbara today, where fire danger ratings were very high, Telfer reached 33, breaking a 35-year July record.

A 30-year July record was broken in Mango Farm in the Darwin-Daly district when it got to 37 degrees.

The heat has been building for about a week, partly a result of persistent easterly winds recently.

Last Monday Darwin had its warmest July day in 12 years, getting to 34.7.

In the next few days some of this heat will travel further south and east across the country as northwesterly winds pick up ahead of a colder change.

Parts of western Queensland are likely to warm to the low-to-mid 30s again.

Even the mid 20s and warmer is achievable in southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales, including in Brisbane.

If Brisbane gets to 26 degrees on Saturday it will be the warmest day in more than two months and warmest July day in three years.

© Weatherzone 2010

also

Darwin's hot week smashes previous record
Thursday July 29, 2010 - 13:12 EST

Yesterday was the breaking point for Darwin as the maximum exceeded 34 degrees for the fourth day in a row, breaking the previous July record of three days.

The heat has been building over the past week in persistent easterly winds and sunny skies.

Since Sunday, Darwin has been sweating through above average daytime and overnight temperatures. On Monday, the minimum only fell to 27 degrees, which was seven above average and their highest July minimum in 68 years of records.

The maximum temperature is expected to exceed 34 degrees over the next few days, which will smash the 1998 record of just three days above 34 degrees.

This extreme streak of hot days and warm nights is leading Darwin towards its hottest July on record.

© Weatherzone 2010
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12z NOGAPS 180 hours.

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1534. xcool

Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1530. Levi32
Quoting JeffMasters:
An addendum to my post last night:

There has been one record coldest day ever so far in 2010, Guinea had its coldest temperature in history in January 9, 2010, when the mercury hit 1.4°C (34.5°F) at Mali-ville in the Labe region. Of the 229 countries with extreme coldest temperature records, 15 of these records have occurred in the past ten years (6.5% of all countries). There have been five times as many (74) extreme hottest temperature records in the past ten years (33% of all countries.)

Jeff Masters


Thank you Dr. Masters.
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1528. IKE
Quoting Bipartisanship:
Thanks for agreeing with me, Ike. Yeah, I wonder what the PR NWS is seeing, lol.


The CMC.

12Z NOGAPS through 180 hours.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Indeed strong upper level divergence is causing the pressure to fall with the wave off the African coast:

Interesting...
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Quoting SLU:
Looking at the latest satellite pictures of the African wave, I won't be surprised if it is designated as 91L soon. Maybe even later this afternoon. It I believe, will be the focal point of the tropical cyclogenesis in about 3 - 4 days as it absorbs 90L and races off towards the west at a rate of knots.


they may not designate it at all if they feel the 2 systems will merge
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1525. SLU
Looking at the latest satellite pictures of the African wave, I won't be surprised if it is designated as 91L soon. Maybe even later this afternoon. It I believe, will be the focal point of the tropical cyclogenesis in about 3 - 4 days as it absorbs 90L and races off towards the west at a rate of knots.
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1524. Drakoen
Indeed strong upper level divergence is causing the pressure to fall with the wave off the African coast:

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Quoting StormW:


Good afternoon!

Love the pic!

Hey there Storm! Thanks! Good afternoon! How are you doing today? :)
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The circle on the 8 am TWO includes the wave off Africa.



Storm, Drak or anyone. What do you guys think will happen with these two waves? How will they merge, what steps will they take?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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