Storms of My Grandchildren by Dr. James Hansen
"Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity" is NASA climate change scientist Dr. James Hansen's first book. Dr. Hansen is arguably the most visible and well-respected climate change scientist in the world, and has headed the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City since 1981. He is also an adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University. Dr. Hansen greatly raised awareness of the threat of global warming during his Congressional testimony during the record hot summer of 1988, and issued one of the first-ever climate model predictions of global warming (see an analysis here to see how his 1988 prediction did.) In 2009, Dr. Hansen was awarded the Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal, the highest honor bestowed by the American Meteorological Society, for his "outstanding contributions to climate modeling, understanding climate change forcings and sensitivity, and for clear communication of climate science in the public arena."
Storms of My Grandchildren focuses on the key concepts of the science of climate change, told through Hansen's personal experiences as a key player in field's scientific advancements and political dramas over the past 40 years. Dr. Hansen's writing style is very straight-forward and understandable, and he clearly explains the scientific concepts involved in a friendly way that anyone with a high school level science education can understand. I did not find any scientific errors in his book. However, some of his explanations are too long-winded, and the book is probably too long, at 274 pages. Nevertheless, Storms of My Grandchildren is a must-read, due to the importance of the subject matter and who is writing it. Hansen is not a fancy writer. He comes across as a plain Iowan who happened to stumble into the field of climate change and discovered things he had to speak out about. And he does plenty of speaking out in his book.
James Hansen vs. Richard Lindzen
Dr. Hansen's book opens with an interesting chapter on his participation in four meetings of Vice President Dick Cheney's cabinet-level Climate Task Force in 2001. It seems that the Bush Administration was prepared to let Dr. Hansen's views on climate change influence policy. However, Dr. Richard Lindzen, whom Hansen describes as "the dean of of global warming contrarians", was also present at the meetings. Dr.Lindzen was able to confuse the task force members enough so that they never took Dr. Hansen's views seriously. Hansen observes that "U.S. policies regarding carbon dioxide during the Bush-Cheney administration seem to have been based on, or at a minimum, congruent with, Lindzen's perspective." Hansen asserts that Lindzen was able to do this by acting more like a lawyer than a scientist: "He and other contrarians tend to act like lawyers defending a client, presenting only arguments that favor their client. This is in direct contradiction to...the scientific method." Hansen also comments that he asked Lindzen what he thought of the link between smoking and cancer, since Lindzen had been a witness for the tobacco industry decades earlier. Lindzen "began rattling off all the problems with the data relating smoking to health problems, which was closely analogous to his views of climate data."
Alarmism
Global warming contrarians often dismiss scientists such a Dr. Hansen as "alarmists" who concoct fearsome stories about climate change in order to get research funding. Dr. Lindzen made this accusation at Cheney's Climate Task Force in 2001. However, Dr. Hansen notes that "in 1981 I lost funding for research on the climate effects of carbon dioxide because the Energy Department was displeased with a paper, 'Climate Impact of Increasing Carbon Dioxide,' I had published in Science magazine. The paper made a number of predictions for the 21st century, including 'opening of the fabled Northwest Passage', which the Energy Department considered to be alarmist but which have since proven to be accurate." If you read Dr. Hansen's book and listen to his lectures, it is clear that he is not an alarmist out to get more research funding by hyping the dangers of global warming. Hansen says in his book that "my basic nature nature is very placid, even comfortably stolid", and that nature comes through very clearly in Storms of My Grandchildren. Hansen's writings express a quiet determination to plainly set forth the scientific truth on climate change. He has surprisingly few angry words towards the politicians, lobbyists, and scientists intent on distorting the scientific truth.
The science of climate change
The bulk of Storms of My Grandchildren is devoted to explanations of the science of climate change. Hansen's greatest concern is disintegration of the gerat ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica causing sea level rise: "Once the ice sheets begin to rapidly disintegrate, sea level would be continuously changing for centuries. Coastal cities would become impractical to maintain." Hansen is concerned that evidence from past climate periods show that the massive ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica can melt quickly, with large changes within a century. For example, sea level at the end of the most recent Ice Age, 13,000 - 14,000 years ago, rose at a rate of 3 - 5 meters (10 - 17 feet) per century for several centuries. Hansen is convinced that just a 1.7 -2°C warming, which would likely result if we stabilize CO2 at 450 ppm, would be a "disaster scenario" that would trigger rapid disintegration of the ice sheets and disastrous rises in sea level. Hansen advocates stabilizing CO2 at 350 ppm (we are currently at 390 ppm, with a rate of increase of 2 ppm per year.)
Another of Hansen's main concerns is the extinction of species. He notes that studies of more than 1,000 species of plants, animals, and insects have found an average migration rate towards the poles due to climate warming in the last half of the 20th century to be four miles per decade. "That is not fast enough. During the past thirty years the lines marking the regions in which a given average temperature prevails (isotherms) have been moving poleward at a rate of about thirty-five miles per decade. If greenhouse gases continue to increase at business-as-usual rates, then the rate of isotherm movement will double in this century to at least seventy miles per decade."
Hansen's other main concern is the release of large amounts of methane gas stored in sea-floor sediments in the form of methane hydrates. If ocean temperatures warm according to predictions, the higher temperatures at the sea floor may be enough to destabilize the methane hydrate sediments and release huge quantities of methane into the atmosphere. Methane is a greenhouse gas 20 - 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide.
Solutions to the climate change problem
Dr. Hansen is a controversial figure, since he has stepped outside his field of expertise and become an activist in promoting solutions to the climate change problem. He devotes a chapter called "An Honest, Effective Path" in the book to this. His main theme is that we need to tax fossil fuels using a "fee-and-dividend" approach. All of the tax money collected would be distributed uniformly to the public. This carbon tax would gradually rise, giving people time to adjust their lifestyle, choice of vehicle, home insulation, etc. Those who do better at reducing their fossil fuel use will receive more in the dividend than they will pay in the added costs of the products they buy. The approach is straightforward and does not require a large bureaucracy, but currently has little political support. Hansen is vehemently opposed to the approach that has the most political support, "Cap-and-trade": "Cap-and-trade is what governments and the people in alligator shoes (the lobbyists for special interests) are trying to foist on you. Whoops. As an objective scientist I should delete such personal opinions, to at least flag them. But I am sixty-eight years old, and I am fed up with the way things work in Washington." Hansen also promotes an overlooked type of nuclear power, "fast" reactors with liquid metal coolant that produce far less nuclear waste and are much more efficient than conventional nuclear reactors.
Quotes from the book
"Humanity treads today on a slippery slope. As we continue to pump greenhouse gases into the air, we move onto a steeper, even more slippery incline. We seem oblivious to the danger--unaware how close we may be to a situation in which a catastrophic slip becomes practically unavoidable, a slip where we suddenly lose all control and are pulled into a torrential stream that hurls us over a precipice to our demise."
"In order for a democracy to function well, the public needs to be honestly informed. But the undue influence of special interests and government greenwash pose formidable barriers to a well-informed public. Without a well-informed public, humanity itself and all species on the planet are threatened."
"Of course by 2005 I was well aware that the NASA Office of Public Affairs had become an office of propaganda. In 2004, I learned that NASA press releases related to global warming were sent to the White House, where they were edited to appear less serious or discarded entirely."
"If we let special interests rule, my grandchildren and yours will pay the price."
"The role of money in our capitals is the biggest problem for democracy and for the planet."
"The problem with asking people to pledge to reduce their fossil fuel use is that even if lots of people do, one effect is reduced demand for fossil fuel and thus a lower price--making it easier for someone else to burn...it is necessary for people to reduce their emissions, but it is not sufficient if the government does not adopt policies that cause much of the fossil fuels to be left in the ground permanently."
"I have argued that it is time to 'draw a line in the sand' and demand no new coal plants."
"The present situation is analogous to that faced by Lincoln with slavery and Churchill with Nazism--the time for compromises and appeasement is over."
"Humans are beginning to hammer the climate system with a forcing more than an order of magnitude more powerful than the forcings that nature employed."
"Once ice sheet disintegration begins in earnest, our grandchildren will live the rest of their lives in a chaotic transition period."
"After the ice is gone, would Earth proceed to the Venus syndrome, a runaway greenhouse effect that would destroy all life on the planet, perhaps permanently? While that is difficult to say based on present information, I've come to conclude that if we burn all reserves of oil, gas, and coal, there is a substantial chance we will initiate the runaway greenhouse. If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty."
"One suggestion I have for now: Support Bill McKibben and his organization 350.org. It is the most effective and responsible leadership in the public struggle for climate justice."
Commentary
James Hansen understands the Earth's climate as well as any person alive, and his concern about where our climate is headed makes Storms of My Grandchildren a must-read for everyone who cares about the world their grandchildren will inherit. Storms of My Grandchildren retails for $16.50 at Amazon.com. Dr. Hansen's web site is http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Fair enough, but...I have a feeling its gonna pull out of the ITCZ and the high SST's will assist.
Know by tomorrow evening.
CFS 40-day MJO forecast:
GFS 40-day MJO forecast:
All signs point to a marked ramping up of the season beginning in the second week of August. The shear should begin lessening then as well as the TUTT retreats north.
I've said it once, and I'll say it again: people need to exercise patience.
Weather Authority Still Foresees Very Busy Season with an Increased Northeast US Threat
Andover, MA, July 21, 2010 — In its latest tropical update for 2010, WSI (Weather Services International) now calls for 19 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 intense hurricanes (category 3 or greater). The 2010 forecast numbers are well above the long-term (1950-2009) averages of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes and slightly above the averages from the more active recent 15-year period (1995-2009) of 14/8/4. These numbers are also a slight decrease from the June forecast numbers of 20/11/5.
Further, WSI’s hurricane landfall forecasting model (developed in collaboration with reinsurance intermediary Guy Carpenter) continues to suggest that the coastal region from the Outer Banks of North Carolina northward to Maine is twice as likely as normal to experience a hurricane this year.
“Record warm tropical Atlantic ocean temperatures and an enabling wind shear environment should result in a very active tropical season this year," said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. “The El Nino event has vanished completely, resulting in a decrease in central tropical Pacific convection and a concomitant decrease in the vertical wind shear that typically acts as a detriment to tropical Atlantic development. More importantly, however, eastern and central tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are currently at record warm levels for July, even warmer than the freakishly active season of 2005. Water temperatures are already at levels more typical of late August.”
“While all of the primary drivers are strongly enabling for tropical activity, we have had a slow start relative to other very active seasons,” Dr. Crawford added. “Further, a pocket of very dry air in the tropical Atlantic will likely limit development in the near-term. Because of these factors, we have decreased our forecast total number of named storms from 20 to 19. We still expect an extremely active August-October period.”
Crawford also indicated that the Northeast US had an enhanced risk of hurricane landfall this season. “Our statistical landfall forecast model, which takes into account northern hemispheric ocean temperatures and current atmospheric patterns, is suggesting that the coastline from the Outer Banks to Maine is under a significantly increased threat of a hurricane this season, relative to the normal rates, which are, admittedly, quite small. Our model suggests that the threat to the Northeast coast this season is on par with that in Florida and the Gulf coastal states.”
IT'S STILL GONNA BE "A HELL OF A YEAR" AND "A HURRICANE SEASON FROM HADES"
Nothing is impeding development.. we're above average. 2 named storms and 1 near major hurricane. If you will recall, that hurricane was the 2nd deepest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the month of June in the Atlantic.
It is getting hotter out there by 17 measures.
Thanks Doc for posting this entry since my wife did want to know a little bit about Dr. Hanson. No I don't agree with him 100% (his is worst case) but he is headed the right direction.
In any case, even if you are in climate change denial, where are your plastics, etc., going to come from 50-100 years from now? China and India will not be stopped for striving for our standard of living (which means adaption to climate change has to happen anyway).
The west, starting with the US, has to lead by example on the post-fossil fuel world.
Or common sense..
One thing's for sure; in the event that something did try to develop there, upper-level winds are highly favorable, with a pronounced uniform easterly flow for several days.
Link
And this season may streatch out way past October
guess i'm not the only one surprised the blob at 30W wasn't even mentioned in the 8 p.m. discussion. in and out. meeting in the morning.
goodnight!
A little bit of both, actually.
July was a dead month. The dry air and shear ruled in the Atlantic.
I don't know about that. Way too early to tell.
We're on the heels of something big. If the MJO acts as forecast, we could be seeing Colin within a week and a half.
Ha I laughed when I read this. Just shows how non-linear hurricane activity is with respect to the month. People have posted the standard graphic showing activity over 100 years or so vs the month. The bulk of the season is dead ahead!
Sorry, not credible ... all the authors are meteorologists or climatologists :-) lol
But seriously, thanks for posting. I'm sure that will make for a good read.
Good Evening Everyone!!!
LOL..I wouldnt consider the outerbanks part of the northeast but oh well
No vorticity. An ITCZ flare up for now.
If not enough heat is used in the Atlantic this year, we could very possibly see 2 named storms in November.
Hi Womble. hahaha
Thing is, the models are finally starting to recognize the enormity of the anomalous heat concentrated in the Atlantic basin this year. This is reflected in their respective MJO forecasts, which are unanimously calling for an upward MJO beginning the second week of August, and persisting well beyond that.
The GFS, in particular, has made the largest shift. Just several days ago, it was calling for a very strong downward MJO across much of the basin -- now it's the complete opposite.
As has been said before by people like StormW, because of the heat in this basin, the upward MJO will be rather reluctant to leave our area for very long.
I live in the South, I am called a yankee. i also was born in the north however i do have a sign in my house that says "we dont care how ya do it up north" fuuny thing is the relatives all say how can ya live here with the heat? but they always save there peneys to "visit" in the winter
Laughable. It doesn't take a genius to figure this stuff out. There is no way we are getting 19 storms this season.
I don't need to read other's blogs and forecasts - weather is what I do for a living. Point is you are comparing June and July to average and yes it is average, but the talk of the blog since March has been this record season that may happen (still may) but time is becoming an issue now. We are 6 weeks from peak season. There is no doubt in my mind that we will reach 10 named storms and probably have a few make landfall in the U.S. The way I look at is everyone that lives from Brownsville, TX to Augusta, ME have a 50/50 chance of getting hit. Either you do or you don't. We'll further deal with who gets hit WHEN a storm is developed and has a chance to impact an area.
Always character assassination, nothing on the evidence provided....just a broken record -
Pretty bad when I have to get admin to help me stop your harassing emails....Gheeze !
Iggy engaged-- 1st one ever! Paid member since 6-2005
That might be the most accurate forecast of this season I've read all year.
Spawns from the ITCZ happen as well, especially when it's up that far, no need for a wave.
What are you forecasting (not that I'm necessarily expecting 19 storms, either)?
Well, yeah. But as of now, it's not even identified as a low pressure area, either.
50/50 chance of rain tomorrow everywhere in the world. I can't go wrong!
Agreed. I haven't looked tonight but, the mornings models didn't really show much until 48+ hours, nothing tropical until 60 to 90hrs.
13 storms at most.
That you shake your head, mentally facepalm, and realize just how much patience some people need to exercise?
Then why stoke the fire??? that makes no sense???
I wouldn't say that...
Precipitation for the following day is a short term forecast, and thus can be more accurate as tomorrow's conditions are much more prevalent and easy to predict.
Hurricane landfalls are long term at this point, and there is a lot of uncertainty. The reason I agreed with Chucktown was that he emphasized that everyone is still at risk.
2004.. absolutely no named storms until August 1st. 15 named in total.
2006.. 3 named storms before August. 10 named in total.
1998.. 1 named storm before August 1st. 14 total.
1997.. 4 named storms before August 1st, 1 unnamed sub-tropical storm.. 8 in total.
1969.. 1 named storms before August 1st, 18 named total.
Need I go further? July and June are meaningless to total seasonal activity and might I remind you we're at 2. None of those seasons had a borderline Category 2/3 in June either. All of our systems have hit land. And even in the event your right Chuck and this is a average season.. the pattern favors less storms veer out to sea like we'd want them to and more effect land (not wish casting, just telling you as I see it)
PS I'm not trying to get into a argument or anything just having a conversation.
2005 was a different animal.
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