Storms of My Grandchildren by Dr. James Hansen
"Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity" is NASA climate change scientist Dr. James Hansen's first book. Dr. Hansen is arguably the most visible and well-respected climate change scientist in the world, and has headed the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City since 1981. He is also an adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University. Dr. Hansen greatly raised awareness of the threat of global warming during his Congressional testimony during the record hot summer of 1988, and issued one of the first-ever climate model predictions of global warming (see an analysis here to see how his 1988 prediction did.) In 2009, Dr. Hansen was awarded the Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal, the highest honor bestowed by the American Meteorological Society, for his "outstanding contributions to climate modeling, understanding climate change forcings and sensitivity, and for clear communication of climate science in the public arena."
Storms of My Grandchildren focuses on the key concepts of the science of climate change, told through Hansen's personal experiences as a key player in field's scientific advancements and political dramas over the past 40 years. Dr. Hansen's writing style is very straight-forward and understandable, and he clearly explains the scientific concepts involved in a friendly way that anyone with a high school level science education can understand. I did not find any scientific errors in his book. However, some of his explanations are too long-winded, and the book is probably too long, at 274 pages. Nevertheless, Storms of My Grandchildren is a must-read, due to the importance of the subject matter and who is writing it. Hansen is not a fancy writer. He comes across as a plain Iowan who happened to stumble into the field of climate change and discovered things he had to speak out about. And he does plenty of speaking out in his book.
James Hansen vs. Richard Lindzen
Dr. Hansen's book opens with an interesting chapter on his participation in four meetings of Vice President Dick Cheney's cabinet-level Climate Task Force in 2001. It seems that the Bush Administration was prepared to let Dr. Hansen's views on climate change influence policy. However, Dr. Richard Lindzen, whom Hansen describes as "the dean of of global warming contrarians", was also present at the meetings. Dr.Lindzen was able to confuse the task force members enough so that they never took Dr. Hansen's views seriously. Hansen observes that "U.S. policies regarding carbon dioxide during the Bush-Cheney administration seem to have been based on, or at a minimum, congruent with, Lindzen's perspective." Hansen asserts that Lindzen was able to do this by acting more like a lawyer than a scientist: "He and other contrarians tend to act like lawyers defending a client, presenting only arguments that favor their client. This is in direct contradiction to...the scientific method." Hansen also comments that he asked Lindzen what he thought of the link between smoking and cancer, since Lindzen had been a witness for the tobacco industry decades earlier. Lindzen "began rattling off all the problems with the data relating smoking to health problems, which was closely analogous to his views of climate data."
Alarmism
Global warming contrarians often dismiss scientists such a Dr. Hansen as "alarmists" who concoct fearsome stories about climate change in order to get research funding. Dr. Lindzen made this accusation at Cheney's Climate Task Force in 2001. However, Dr. Hansen notes that "in 1981 I lost funding for research on the climate effects of carbon dioxide because the Energy Department was displeased with a paper, 'Climate Impact of Increasing Carbon Dioxide,' I had published in Science magazine. The paper made a number of predictions for the 21st century, including 'opening of the fabled Northwest Passage', which the Energy Department considered to be alarmist but which have since proven to be accurate." If you read Dr. Hansen's book and listen to his lectures, it is clear that he is not an alarmist out to get more research funding by hyping the dangers of global warming. Hansen says in his book that "my basic nature nature is very placid, even comfortably stolid", and that nature comes through very clearly in Storms of My Grandchildren. Hansen's writings express a quiet determination to plainly set forth the scientific truth on climate change. He has surprisingly few angry words towards the politicians, lobbyists, and scientists intent on distorting the scientific truth.
The science of climate change
The bulk of Storms of My Grandchildren is devoted to explanations of the science of climate change. Hansen's greatest concern is disintegration of the gerat ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica causing sea level rise: "Once the ice sheets begin to rapidly disintegrate, sea level would be continuously changing for centuries. Coastal cities would become impractical to maintain." Hansen is concerned that evidence from past climate periods show that the massive ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica can melt quickly, with large changes within a century. For example, sea level at the end of the most recent Ice Age, 13,000 - 14,000 years ago, rose at a rate of 3 - 5 meters (10 - 17 feet) per century for several centuries. Hansen is convinced that just a 1.7 -2°C warming, which would likely result if we stabilize CO2 at 450 ppm, would be a "disaster scenario" that would trigger rapid disintegration of the ice sheets and disastrous rises in sea level. Hansen advocates stabilizing CO2 at 350 ppm (we are currently at 390 ppm, with a rate of increase of 2 ppm per year.)
Another of Hansen's main concerns is the extinction of species. He notes that studies of more than 1,000 species of plants, animals, and insects have found an average migration rate towards the poles due to climate warming in the last half of the 20th century to be four miles per decade. "That is not fast enough. During the past thirty years the lines marking the regions in which a given average temperature prevails (isotherms) have been moving poleward at a rate of about thirty-five miles per decade. If greenhouse gases continue to increase at business-as-usual rates, then the rate of isotherm movement will double in this century to at least seventy miles per decade."
Hansen's other main concern is the release of large amounts of methane gas stored in sea-floor sediments in the form of methane hydrates. If ocean temperatures warm according to predictions, the higher temperatures at the sea floor may be enough to destabilize the methane hydrate sediments and release huge quantities of methane into the atmosphere. Methane is a greenhouse gas 20 - 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide.
Solutions to the climate change problem
Dr. Hansen is a controversial figure, since he has stepped outside his field of expertise and become an activist in promoting solutions to the climate change problem. He devotes a chapter called "An Honest, Effective Path" in the book to this. His main theme is that we need to tax fossil fuels using a "fee-and-dividend" approach. All of the tax money collected would be distributed uniformly to the public. This carbon tax would gradually rise, giving people time to adjust their lifestyle, choice of vehicle, home insulation, etc. Those who do better at reducing their fossil fuel use will receive more in the dividend than they will pay in the added costs of the products they buy. The approach is straightforward and does not require a large bureaucracy, but currently has little political support. Hansen is vehemently opposed to the approach that has the most political support, "Cap-and-trade": "Cap-and-trade is what governments and the people in alligator shoes (the lobbyists for special interests) are trying to foist on you. Whoops. As an objective scientist I should delete such personal opinions, to at least flag them. But I am sixty-eight years old, and I am fed up with the way things work in Washington." Hansen also promotes an overlooked type of nuclear power, "fast" reactors with liquid metal coolant that produce far less nuclear waste and are much more efficient than conventional nuclear reactors.
Quotes from the book
"Humanity treads today on a slippery slope. As we continue to pump greenhouse gases into the air, we move onto a steeper, even more slippery incline. We seem oblivious to the danger--unaware how close we may be to a situation in which a catastrophic slip becomes practically unavoidable, a slip where we suddenly lose all control and are pulled into a torrential stream that hurls us over a precipice to our demise."
"In order for a democracy to function well, the public needs to be honestly informed. But the undue influence of special interests and government greenwash pose formidable barriers to a well-informed public. Without a well-informed public, humanity itself and all species on the planet are threatened."
"Of course by 2005 I was well aware that the NASA Office of Public Affairs had become an office of propaganda. In 2004, I learned that NASA press releases related to global warming were sent to the White House, where they were edited to appear less serious or discarded entirely."
"If we let special interests rule, my grandchildren and yours will pay the price."
"The role of money in our capitals is the biggest problem for democracy and for the planet."
"The problem with asking people to pledge to reduce their fossil fuel use is that even if lots of people do, one effect is reduced demand for fossil fuel and thus a lower price--making it easier for someone else to burn...it is necessary for people to reduce their emissions, but it is not sufficient if the government does not adopt policies that cause much of the fossil fuels to be left in the ground permanently."
"I have argued that it is time to 'draw a line in the sand' and demand no new coal plants."
"The present situation is analogous to that faced by Lincoln with slavery and Churchill with Nazism--the time for compromises and appeasement is over."
"Humans are beginning to hammer the climate system with a forcing more than an order of magnitude more powerful than the forcings that nature employed."
"Once ice sheet disintegration begins in earnest, our grandchildren will live the rest of their lives in a chaotic transition period."
"After the ice is gone, would Earth proceed to the Venus syndrome, a runaway greenhouse effect that would destroy all life on the planet, perhaps permanently? While that is difficult to say based on present information, I've come to conclude that if we burn all reserves of oil, gas, and coal, there is a substantial chance we will initiate the runaway greenhouse. If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty."
"One suggestion I have for now: Support Bill McKibben and his organization 350.org. It is the most effective and responsible leadership in the public struggle for climate justice."
Commentary
James Hansen understands the Earth's climate as well as any person alive, and his concern about where our climate is headed makes Storms of My Grandchildren a must-read for everyone who cares about the world their grandchildren will inherit. Storms of My Grandchildren retails for $16.50 at Amazon.com. Dr. Hansen's web site is http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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my Birthday is 23rd December... will i see my 36th birthday?
pure opinion, no supporting data, dubious linkage -3
I'm thinking a very Dean like track personally.
Thank you! That's pretty much a New Age myth.
Cynthia Tucker
Global warming makes heat waves the new normal
8:05 am July 28, 2010, by ctucker
Cynthia Tucker
Aussie, asking that question on this blog is like askin' the Soup Nazi for extra crackers.
PS: I had troubles getting the article on the first attempt. After showing it for a few seconds the page went blank and it claimed that the page was no longer available. When I tried again to open it in a new tab, I highlighted the entire article and it remained visible. ts ts ts, has anyone a problem with revealing how denialists' brains are working?
Just in case, I made a copy of it.
Link
This guy?
Officials: Battle Creek oil spill among largest in Midwest history
Detroit News staff and wire reports
Marshall Township -- As much as 1 million gallons of oil may have leaked into the Kalamazoo River near Battle Creek in what could be one of the largest oil spills in Midwest history, officials say.
U.S. Rep Mark Schauer, D-Battle Creek, called it the "largest oil spill in the history of the Midwest" in a description to President Barack Obama this afternoon prior to a conference call with the media.
"According to EPA officials, this is the largest oil spill ever in the Midwest," he said. "The EPA is estimating 1 million gallons (spilled). ... This feels like déjÀ vu all over again with regard to what happened in the Gulf."
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The oil spilled into Talmadge Creek, which flows northwest into the Kalamazoo River. The site is in Calhoun County's Marshall Township near Battle Creek and about 60 miles southeast of Grand Rapids. The pipe may have been leaking for many hours before it was originally reported to have burst Monday morning. Marshall Township fire officials responded to complaints of an oily smell from residents.
More than 20 homes have been evacuated
EPA officials in Chicago's regional office declined to say it is the largest spill. "It certainly is one of the largest in recent memory in the Midwest," EPA Spokesman Mick Hans said.
Schauer also took issue with the handling of the pipeline rupture by the company that owns the line, Enbridge Liquid Pipelines.
"I want to find out how the hell this happened," he said. "I am especially concerned about the response of the company and whether their estimates are accurate."
Early estimates of the amount of oil that have spilled from an underground pipeline hovered around 840,000 gallons. Schauer said the spill is now being investigated by the EPA as well as the National Transportation Safety Board.
I know, joke. ;)
Nothing wrong with this either though...
I'll never look at The Wheel the same way again (sniff)
You repeated a conjecture from a known climate change denier, a conjecture that completely failed to tak into consideration the entire contents of the page to which he linked. I responded by A) showing that the GISS numbers are not being manipulated, and B) highlighting the fact that even if they were--which, again, they aren't--there are still reams of data showing that the globe is indeed warming, and it's doing so at the hands of man. Please tell me/us how that equates to "smoke and mirrors"?
Furthermore, as I pointed out more than once yesterday, China will eventually get its act together, and in fact is trying to do so as we speak; they realize the unsustainability of the current fossil fuel paradigm. It's to our own peril that we haven't yet figured that out. (Besides, the alternative is to get all cynical and sit back and do nothing...and that's just plain immoral and--yes--stupid.)
JULY 27 2010:
maybe the world population will be 12 billion by 2200, 4 billion in both China and India.
To answer 2 first.. Hanson's tax idea isn't one for the globe over but a better idea then the fleasing of us by the energy companies/law makers are currently trying for in the US.
His proposal calls for a “simple, honest” carbon fee, collected from fossil-fuel companies upon the first sale at the mine, wellhead or port of entry.
As of now we pay so much more for oil than the bill at the pump or from the power company, it is heavily subsidized with tax money in huge money gifts & tax breaks to the oil companies & protection in foreign lands with the military. $35 billion in oil company tax breaks are planned for this coming year alone. This is just corporate icing too, not to make it all more affordable. A move was made earlier this month to stop the $35 billion tax break subsidies but was voted down in favor of the corporations instead of a more balanced budget.
AS for your 1st point~
The money collected via this fee would be distributed to the public as a monthly “dividend” or “green check.” Distributing all of the revenue equitably to households will ensure that families can afford the energy they need during the transition to a clean energy future, and it should help win public support for a rising carbon fee.
Hanson's plan is all the tax money people pay for using nonrenewable energy sources is simply to be divided among the people that payed it evenly.. You conserve, you pay less & get the same check at the end of the month. You want to pollute & can afford to then pay more taxes & get the same check at the end of the month (it even keeps oil use a freedom). As more people conserve & find other sources of power the checks will grow smaller because less taxes are payed. In Hanson's plan the oil/mine/power companies never get to touch the tax money & won't profit from this. Since they also make the laws there is no wonder why his idea isn't exciting most lawmakers.
Ya'll can argue all day about CO2 causing global warming, it doesn't matter.. It's proven that the oceans are absorbing a huge amount of CO2 that we are dumping in the atmosphere & that is turning the ocean more acidic & rapidly. It will kill our oceans as we know them if we don't stop...well if the oil we keep dumping in them doesn't kill them 1st. Mountain top removal is ugly & a death sentence to communities. There is only so many mountain tops & oil.. Air pollution from coal power plants has been blamed on 30,000 deaths in the US alone per year. Globally air pollution last year caused 2 million early deaths.. We need to get away from a carbon run society for many reasons..
Have to find the source yet, but population prognoses is for ZPG by 2050-2100.
And you call me a "denialist"! You got faith in China???
I don't think the high will be that strong, the EURO shows a potential northward movement rather then west at the end of the run as it reaches the end of a strong high, also note a trough on the east coast. I mentioned a pattern change was coming a few weeks ago that would steer systems to the GOM and possibly the East Coast. It might be happening soon.
Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, July 28th, with Video
agree; nothing to hold it back right now.
Good post.
Liberal Environmentalist Pans Global Warming
Notes:
For this case, don't just look at the end of the track and
assume all is finished. Look at the fields, especially the
700hPa GFS & NOGAPS OW fields.
The 700/850 hPa pouch moves southwestward off of northwestern
Africa and initiates the development of an ITCZ circulation,
which then moves off to the west.
For today, I did NOT track the subsequent circulation!
"Is it safe?"
Dr. Hansen greatly raised awareness of the threat of global warming during his Congressional testimony during the record hot summer of 1988, and issued one of the first-ever climate model predictions of global warming
How can we tell how successful the projections were?
Firstly, since the projected forcings started in 1984, that should be the starting year for any analysis, giving us just over two decades of comparison with the real world. The delay between the projections and the publication is a reflection of the time needed to gather the necessary data, churn through the model experiments and get results ready for publication. If the analysis uses earlier data i.e. 1959, it will be affected by the cold start problem -i.e. the model is starting with a radiative balance that real world was not in. After a decade or so that is less important. Secondly, we need to address two questions how accurate were the scenarios and how accurate were the modelled impacts.
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