Storms of My Grandchildren by Dr. James Hansen
"Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity" is NASA climate change scientist Dr. James Hansen's first book. Dr. Hansen is arguably the most visible and well-respected climate change scientist in the world, and has headed the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City since 1981. He is also an adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University. Dr. Hansen greatly raised awareness of the threat of global warming during his Congressional testimony during the record hot summer of 1988, and issued one of the first-ever climate model predictions of global warming (see an analysis here to see how his 1988 prediction did.) In 2009, Dr. Hansen was awarded the Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal, the highest honor bestowed by the American Meteorological Society, for his "outstanding contributions to climate modeling, understanding climate change forcings and sensitivity, and for clear communication of climate science in the public arena."
Storms of My Grandchildren focuses on the key concepts of the science of climate change, told through Hansen's personal experiences as a key player in field's scientific advancements and political dramas over the past 40 years. Dr. Hansen's writing style is very straight-forward and understandable, and he clearly explains the scientific concepts involved in a friendly way that anyone with a high school level science education can understand. I did not find any scientific errors in his book. However, some of his explanations are too long-winded, and the book is probably too long, at 274 pages. Nevertheless, Storms of My Grandchildren is a must-read, due to the importance of the subject matter and who is writing it. Hansen is not a fancy writer. He comes across as a plain Iowan who happened to stumble into the field of climate change and discovered things he had to speak out about. And he does plenty of speaking out in his book.
James Hansen vs. Richard Lindzen
Dr. Hansen's book opens with an interesting chapter on his participation in four meetings of Vice President Dick Cheney's cabinet-level Climate Task Force in 2001. It seems that the Bush Administration was prepared to let Dr. Hansen's views on climate change influence policy. However, Dr. Richard Lindzen, whom Hansen describes as "the dean of of global warming contrarians", was also present at the meetings. Dr.Lindzen was able to confuse the task force members enough so that they never took Dr. Hansen's views seriously. Hansen observes that "U.S. policies regarding carbon dioxide during the Bush-Cheney administration seem to have been based on, or at a minimum, congruent with, Lindzen's perspective." Hansen asserts that Lindzen was able to do this by acting more like a lawyer than a scientist: "He and other contrarians tend to act like lawyers defending a client, presenting only arguments that favor their client. This is in direct contradiction to...the scientific method." Hansen also comments that he asked Lindzen what he thought of the link between smoking and cancer, since Lindzen had been a witness for the tobacco industry decades earlier. Lindzen "began rattling off all the problems with the data relating smoking to health problems, which was closely analogous to his views of climate data."
Alarmism
Global warming contrarians often dismiss scientists such a Dr. Hansen as "alarmists" who concoct fearsome stories about climate change in order to get research funding. Dr. Lindzen made this accusation at Cheney's Climate Task Force in 2001. However, Dr. Hansen notes that "in 1981 I lost funding for research on the climate effects of carbon dioxide because the Energy Department was displeased with a paper, 'Climate Impact of Increasing Carbon Dioxide,' I had published in Science magazine. The paper made a number of predictions for the 21st century, including 'opening of the fabled Northwest Passage', which the Energy Department considered to be alarmist but which have since proven to be accurate." If you read Dr. Hansen's book and listen to his lectures, it is clear that he is not an alarmist out to get more research funding by hyping the dangers of global warming. Hansen says in his book that "my basic nature nature is very placid, even comfortably stolid", and that nature comes through very clearly in Storms of My Grandchildren. Hansen's writings express a quiet determination to plainly set forth the scientific truth on climate change. He has surprisingly few angry words towards the politicians, lobbyists, and scientists intent on distorting the scientific truth.
The science of climate change
The bulk of Storms of My Grandchildren is devoted to explanations of the science of climate change. Hansen's greatest concern is disintegration of the gerat ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica causing sea level rise: "Once the ice sheets begin to rapidly disintegrate, sea level would be continuously changing for centuries. Coastal cities would become impractical to maintain." Hansen is concerned that evidence from past climate periods show that the massive ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica can melt quickly, with large changes within a century. For example, sea level at the end of the most recent Ice Age, 13,000 - 14,000 years ago, rose at a rate of 3 - 5 meters (10 - 17 feet) per century for several centuries. Hansen is convinced that just a 1.7 -2°C warming, which would likely result if we stabilize CO2 at 450 ppm, would be a "disaster scenario" that would trigger rapid disintegration of the ice sheets and disastrous rises in sea level. Hansen advocates stabilizing CO2 at 350 ppm (we are currently at 390 ppm, with a rate of increase of 2 ppm per year.)
Another of Hansen's main concerns is the extinction of species. He notes that studies of more than 1,000 species of plants, animals, and insects have found an average migration rate towards the poles due to climate warming in the last half of the 20th century to be four miles per decade. "That is not fast enough. During the past thirty years the lines marking the regions in which a given average temperature prevails (isotherms) have been moving poleward at a rate of about thirty-five miles per decade. If greenhouse gases continue to increase at business-as-usual rates, then the rate of isotherm movement will double in this century to at least seventy miles per decade."
Hansen's other main concern is the release of large amounts of methane gas stored in sea-floor sediments in the form of methane hydrates. If ocean temperatures warm according to predictions, the higher temperatures at the sea floor may be enough to destabilize the methane hydrate sediments and release huge quantities of methane into the atmosphere. Methane is a greenhouse gas 20 - 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide.
Solutions to the climate change problem
Dr. Hansen is a controversial figure, since he has stepped outside his field of expertise and become an activist in promoting solutions to the climate change problem. He devotes a chapter called "An Honest, Effective Path" in the book to this. His main theme is that we need to tax fossil fuels using a "fee-and-dividend" approach. All of the tax money collected would be distributed uniformly to the public. This carbon tax would gradually rise, giving people time to adjust their lifestyle, choice of vehicle, home insulation, etc. Those who do better at reducing their fossil fuel use will receive more in the dividend than they will pay in the added costs of the products they buy. The approach is straightforward and does not require a large bureaucracy, but currently has little political support. Hansen is vehemently opposed to the approach that has the most political support, "Cap-and-trade": "Cap-and-trade is what governments and the people in alligator shoes (the lobbyists for special interests) are trying to foist on you. Whoops. As an objective scientist I should delete such personal opinions, to at least flag them. But I am sixty-eight years old, and I am fed up with the way things work in Washington." Hansen also promotes an overlooked type of nuclear power, "fast" reactors with liquid metal coolant that produce far less nuclear waste and are much more efficient than conventional nuclear reactors.
Quotes from the book
"Humanity treads today on a slippery slope. As we continue to pump greenhouse gases into the air, we move onto a steeper, even more slippery incline. We seem oblivious to the danger--unaware how close we may be to a situation in which a catastrophic slip becomes practically unavoidable, a slip where we suddenly lose all control and are pulled into a torrential stream that hurls us over a precipice to our demise."
"In order for a democracy to function well, the public needs to be honestly informed. But the undue influence of special interests and government greenwash pose formidable barriers to a well-informed public. Without a well-informed public, humanity itself and all species on the planet are threatened."
"Of course by 2005 I was well aware that the NASA Office of Public Affairs had become an office of propaganda. In 2004, I learned that NASA press releases related to global warming were sent to the White House, where they were edited to appear less serious or discarded entirely."
"If we let special interests rule, my grandchildren and yours will pay the price."
"The role of money in our capitals is the biggest problem for democracy and for the planet."
"The problem with asking people to pledge to reduce their fossil fuel use is that even if lots of people do, one effect is reduced demand for fossil fuel and thus a lower price--making it easier for someone else to burn...it is necessary for people to reduce their emissions, but it is not sufficient if the government does not adopt policies that cause much of the fossil fuels to be left in the ground permanently."
"I have argued that it is time to 'draw a line in the sand' and demand no new coal plants."
"The present situation is analogous to that faced by Lincoln with slavery and Churchill with Nazism--the time for compromises and appeasement is over."
"Humans are beginning to hammer the climate system with a forcing more than an order of magnitude more powerful than the forcings that nature employed."
"Once ice sheet disintegration begins in earnest, our grandchildren will live the rest of their lives in a chaotic transition period."
"After the ice is gone, would Earth proceed to the Venus syndrome, a runaway greenhouse effect that would destroy all life on the planet, perhaps permanently? While that is difficult to say based on present information, I've come to conclude that if we burn all reserves of oil, gas, and coal, there is a substantial chance we will initiate the runaway greenhouse. If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty."
"One suggestion I have for now: Support Bill McKibben and his organization 350.org. It is the most effective and responsible leadership in the public struggle for climate justice."
Commentary
James Hansen understands the Earth's climate as well as any person alive, and his concern about where our climate is headed makes Storms of My Grandchildren a must-read for everyone who cares about the world their grandchildren will inherit. Storms of My Grandchildren retails for $16.50 at Amazon.com. Dr. Hansen's web site is http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Been lurking for years, never posted.
All this "dialog" has gotten silly. I don't want to voice an opinion either way, but thought this link might let one side or the other stick thier chest out and say "I won".
That way we can all move on to something else.
Link
Later everyone!
Walks in....... Hmmmmmmm I've never seen sooo many soap boxes.... What did I miss??? Aaaahhhh never mind!!!
What you have posted is a seasonal prediction, not a climatological analysis over a broader period of time. We will always have variations in the short term.
I dunno, you may get eated up. Thanks for the info. May have a chance to become somting.
You left out that he is a hyperbolic liar.
Yeah, I put mine away...spent most of the day listening to blowhards on both sides of the debate talking, ummm, well you know...LOL
So how are you, man? What's the haps, as they used to say?
Something less controversial like abortion, politics or religion?
yup yup
Beacuse you disagree with him?
Last time I checked the earth has a history of around 6 billion years and there have been time periods of warm and cold
cold such as the ice ages and warm such as the carboniferous period in which co2 levels were drastically higher than they are today. The carboniferous period and the decay of the large forests from that time period give us todays fossil fuels. Realistically the co2 we are giving off from burning fossil fuels is only a mere fraction of the co2 present in that time period.
I don't want to make this a political issue but many assign categories for who or who does not believe global warming
democrats(liberals)- believe in global warming
republicans(conservatives)- don't believe in global warming
I consider myself a democrat and i don't believe in global warming because the facts that the IPCC, politicians, and whatever yoiu want to consider al gore don't add up
don't make global warming a political issue
Last time i checked 30 years of reliable observable data based on satellite is only .0000005% of earth's history
Good man.... Good to see ya.. I will stay out of the debate today.. Like you said "trying to convince the Pope there is no God" pretty much a waste of time.. Anything a brew in the ponds out there?
yup any one get banned yet if so oh?
It should probably be noted that mankind was like a marsupial in the carboniferous period, I could be wrong but returning to that period-like conditions might be something to research and sorta try anything to NOT allow to happen. It may be we cant reverse this process, but perhaps lessen it? Would less pollution really be all that awful? Also I have read Dr. Hansons book, it was quite good, I do think he became a bit lurid in some of his descriptions, but I was particularly impressed with the fact that he is against cap and trade, arguing for a simple carbon tax.
(by the way, Hey Flood!)
*back to lurking now*
Notice how the Arctic is coming up from a ow point, but the overall trend is down
Yet the Antarctic is coming out of a highpoint, but the overall trend is up.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/
Also the melting of ice starts becoming more rapid in 2000. Funny you say that, as that is when the AMO turned positive.
The PDO and AMO both warm, combined, distort the Global Heat Budget to favor warm, and for it to be further north, explaining why the Arctic is losing ice, and the Antarctic is gaining ice.
http://www.accuweather.com/video/111162007001/one-more-look-at-the-coming-cooling.asp?channel=vbbas taj
The Arctic was feeling an impact from the warm PDO, and even a bigger impacted from the warm AMO, so what do you think will happen when the PDO turns cold, and the AMO turns cold...
The PDO is starting to turn cold... c'mon folks, let's hear your opinions...
Valid points, but one of the questions we have to ask ourselves is that "are we, in the modern industrial age, expediting a process that would occur naturally?" If that answer is yes than you also have to ask the question "Is it possible to expedite it to a point in which it becomes un-natural". While in the Earth's history we may have exceeded this level of C02 and perhaps beyond, the question is about the rate in which that occurred. I think we not only have to look at the line and how far it can go... but at what slope it is going up at.
Yeah, there's a few swirls out east of 50W; not enough moisture to sustain any real convection
Yes, I know, but it would more than likely tip the scales in favor of it has not warmed since 1995.
gw topic of day
What language do you speak, son?
Well said.
Remember if there's anything you want me to do just let me know FLdewey, ok?
~MiamiPurrrrrrrrricanes09. Like what I did there huh?
Looks like some of the models see something in the crystal ball in about 100hrs or so. So pretty speculative at this point but it does support what Storm W. update said. Things might be turning the corner from the lull.. The place gets pretty ugly when there is no content (swirls)..
JFlorida...a denier baited him and you know how that boy is...he got wound up and said somethings he shouldn't thave
oops
a little GW is find but you guys need too no when too end it
You got that right...to be honest, I was lurking most of the day (kind of busy at work) but I get really tired of "smug with no data" types so I had to jump in...it's a nasty habit of mine and I really need to work on that, you know?
ppl sure defend their beliefs
I would have loved too but it would get drowned out in here. I'll be back tommorow, I hope there is a new blog by then.
+1
Admin is striking blows little by little though so it's going to fizzle sooner or later.
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