Storms of My Grandchildren by Dr. James Hansen
"Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity" is NASA climate change scientist Dr. James Hansen's first book. Dr. Hansen is arguably the most visible and well-respected climate change scientist in the world, and has headed the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City since 1981. He is also an adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University. Dr. Hansen greatly raised awareness of the threat of global warming during his Congressional testimony during the record hot summer of 1988, and issued one of the first-ever climate model predictions of global warming (see an analysis here to see how his 1988 prediction did.) In 2009, Dr. Hansen was awarded the Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal, the highest honor bestowed by the American Meteorological Society, for his "outstanding contributions to climate modeling, understanding climate change forcings and sensitivity, and for clear communication of climate science in the public arena."
Storms of My Grandchildren focuses on the key concepts of the science of climate change, told through Hansen's personal experiences as a key player in field's scientific advancements and political dramas over the past 40 years. Dr. Hansen's writing style is very straight-forward and understandable, and he clearly explains the scientific concepts involved in a friendly way that anyone with a high school level science education can understand. I did not find any scientific errors in his book. However, some of his explanations are too long-winded, and the book is probably too long, at 274 pages. Nevertheless, Storms of My Grandchildren is a must-read, due to the importance of the subject matter and who is writing it. Hansen is not a fancy writer. He comes across as a plain Iowan who happened to stumble into the field of climate change and discovered things he had to speak out about. And he does plenty of speaking out in his book.
James Hansen vs. Richard Lindzen
Dr. Hansen's book opens with an interesting chapter on his participation in four meetings of Vice President Dick Cheney's cabinet-level Climate Task Force in 2001. It seems that the Bush Administration was prepared to let Dr. Hansen's views on climate change influence policy. However, Dr. Richard Lindzen, whom Hansen describes as "the dean of of global warming contrarians", was also present at the meetings. Dr.Lindzen was able to confuse the task force members enough so that they never took Dr. Hansen's views seriously. Hansen observes that "U.S. policies regarding carbon dioxide during the Bush-Cheney administration seem to have been based on, or at a minimum, congruent with, Lindzen's perspective." Hansen asserts that Lindzen was able to do this by acting more like a lawyer than a scientist: "He and other contrarians tend to act like lawyers defending a client, presenting only arguments that favor their client. This is in direct contradiction to...the scientific method." Hansen also comments that he asked Lindzen what he thought of the link between smoking and cancer, since Lindzen had been a witness for the tobacco industry decades earlier. Lindzen "began rattling off all the problems with the data relating smoking to health problems, which was closely analogous to his views of climate data."
Alarmism
Global warming contrarians often dismiss scientists such a Dr. Hansen as "alarmists" who concoct fearsome stories about climate change in order to get research funding. Dr. Lindzen made this accusation at Cheney's Climate Task Force in 2001. However, Dr. Hansen notes that "in 1981 I lost funding for research on the climate effects of carbon dioxide because the Energy Department was displeased with a paper, 'Climate Impact of Increasing Carbon Dioxide,' I had published in Science magazine. The paper made a number of predictions for the 21st century, including 'opening of the fabled Northwest Passage', which the Energy Department considered to be alarmist but which have since proven to be accurate." If you read Dr. Hansen's book and listen to his lectures, it is clear that he is not an alarmist out to get more research funding by hyping the dangers of global warming. Hansen says in his book that "my basic nature nature is very placid, even comfortably stolid", and that nature comes through very clearly in Storms of My Grandchildren. Hansen's writings express a quiet determination to plainly set forth the scientific truth on climate change. He has surprisingly few angry words towards the politicians, lobbyists, and scientists intent on distorting the scientific truth.
The science of climate change
The bulk of Storms of My Grandchildren is devoted to explanations of the science of climate change. Hansen's greatest concern is disintegration of the gerat ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica causing sea level rise: "Once the ice sheets begin to rapidly disintegrate, sea level would be continuously changing for centuries. Coastal cities would become impractical to maintain." Hansen is concerned that evidence from past climate periods show that the massive ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica can melt quickly, with large changes within a century. For example, sea level at the end of the most recent Ice Age, 13,000 - 14,000 years ago, rose at a rate of 3 - 5 meters (10 - 17 feet) per century for several centuries. Hansen is convinced that just a 1.7 -2°C warming, which would likely result if we stabilize CO2 at 450 ppm, would be a "disaster scenario" that would trigger rapid disintegration of the ice sheets and disastrous rises in sea level. Hansen advocates stabilizing CO2 at 350 ppm (we are currently at 390 ppm, with a rate of increase of 2 ppm per year.)
Another of Hansen's main concerns is the extinction of species. He notes that studies of more than 1,000 species of plants, animals, and insects have found an average migration rate towards the poles due to climate warming in the last half of the 20th century to be four miles per decade. "That is not fast enough. During the past thirty years the lines marking the regions in which a given average temperature prevails (isotherms) have been moving poleward at a rate of about thirty-five miles per decade. If greenhouse gases continue to increase at business-as-usual rates, then the rate of isotherm movement will double in this century to at least seventy miles per decade."
Hansen's other main concern is the release of large amounts of methane gas stored in sea-floor sediments in the form of methane hydrates. If ocean temperatures warm according to predictions, the higher temperatures at the sea floor may be enough to destabilize the methane hydrate sediments and release huge quantities of methane into the atmosphere. Methane is a greenhouse gas 20 - 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide.
Solutions to the climate change problem
Dr. Hansen is a controversial figure, since he has stepped outside his field of expertise and become an activist in promoting solutions to the climate change problem. He devotes a chapter called "An Honest, Effective Path" in the book to this. His main theme is that we need to tax fossil fuels using a "fee-and-dividend" approach. All of the tax money collected would be distributed uniformly to the public. This carbon tax would gradually rise, giving people time to adjust their lifestyle, choice of vehicle, home insulation, etc. Those who do better at reducing their fossil fuel use will receive more in the dividend than they will pay in the added costs of the products they buy. The approach is straightforward and does not require a large bureaucracy, but currently has little political support. Hansen is vehemently opposed to the approach that has the most political support, "Cap-and-trade": "Cap-and-trade is what governments and the people in alligator shoes (the lobbyists for special interests) are trying to foist on you. Whoops. As an objective scientist I should delete such personal opinions, to at least flag them. But I am sixty-eight years old, and I am fed up with the way things work in Washington." Hansen also promotes an overlooked type of nuclear power, "fast" reactors with liquid metal coolant that produce far less nuclear waste and are much more efficient than conventional nuclear reactors.
Quotes from the book
"Humanity treads today on a slippery slope. As we continue to pump greenhouse gases into the air, we move onto a steeper, even more slippery incline. We seem oblivious to the danger--unaware how close we may be to a situation in which a catastrophic slip becomes practically unavoidable, a slip where we suddenly lose all control and are pulled into a torrential stream that hurls us over a precipice to our demise."
"In order for a democracy to function well, the public needs to be honestly informed. But the undue influence of special interests and government greenwash pose formidable barriers to a well-informed public. Without a well-informed public, humanity itself and all species on the planet are threatened."
"Of course by 2005 I was well aware that the NASA Office of Public Affairs had become an office of propaganda. In 2004, I learned that NASA press releases related to global warming were sent to the White House, where they were edited to appear less serious or discarded entirely."
"If we let special interests rule, my grandchildren and yours will pay the price."
"The role of money in our capitals is the biggest problem for democracy and for the planet."
"The problem with asking people to pledge to reduce their fossil fuel use is that even if lots of people do, one effect is reduced demand for fossil fuel and thus a lower price--making it easier for someone else to burn...it is necessary for people to reduce their emissions, but it is not sufficient if the government does not adopt policies that cause much of the fossil fuels to be left in the ground permanently."
"I have argued that it is time to 'draw a line in the sand' and demand no new coal plants."
"The present situation is analogous to that faced by Lincoln with slavery and Churchill with Nazism--the time for compromises and appeasement is over."
"Humans are beginning to hammer the climate system with a forcing more than an order of magnitude more powerful than the forcings that nature employed."
"Once ice sheet disintegration begins in earnest, our grandchildren will live the rest of their lives in a chaotic transition period."
"After the ice is gone, would Earth proceed to the Venus syndrome, a runaway greenhouse effect that would destroy all life on the planet, perhaps permanently? While that is difficult to say based on present information, I've come to conclude that if we burn all reserves of oil, gas, and coal, there is a substantial chance we will initiate the runaway greenhouse. If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty."
"One suggestion I have for now: Support Bill McKibben and his organization 350.org. It is the most effective and responsible leadership in the public struggle for climate justice."
Commentary
James Hansen understands the Earth's climate as well as any person alive, and his concern about where our climate is headed makes Storms of My Grandchildren a must-read for everyone who cares about the world their grandchildren will inherit. Storms of My Grandchildren retails for $16.50 at Amazon.com. Dr. Hansen's web site is http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Sure...but the idea is that we'll need less of it. And like I and others have been saying: knowing that we'll still need FF for some time to come is absolutely no excuse for maintaining the current oil/coal paradigm. The time to argue about that is long past; we need to move on to better things, or live with the consequences of our inaction. It's really that simple...
Heh heh heh......you tell em Pat.
Hey Jeff....Good Morning there MY FRIEND! Was a great game that i for some reason did not go too....can't believe i did not go and missed a NO HITTER.....Sorta like the Bloggers missing a point.....LOL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
334 AM EDT TUE JUL 27 2010
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO
THE REGION MOST OF FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME ISOLATED STORMS
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATE. UPPER
TROUGHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RETROGRADE THE STRONG UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US. THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF WEAK
FRONTS EACH ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST OF THESE FRONTS COULD AFFECT
THE AREA AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. IF THE 00Z ECMWF IS
RIGHT THEN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BE WET WITH DRIER
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
Thats a understatement..
I got a E-mail last week from Fla saying the Tampa area might get hit from a Major called Bonnie.
I wunder who sent dat un?
Talk about a lack of understanding..
No one denies that global warming is happening.. Well, it's not anymore, but it was.. We're global cooling now..
But my point is, no one denies that there is climate change. No one with a grasp of reality, that is...
The dispute comes from what is causing it.. AGW people say that humans cause it..
Yet there are periods in the history of the planet where it was hotter, but no humans were around. At least, no industrialized humans..
So, the argument seems to be, "Well back then it was caused by something else, but NOW it's caused by humans.."
An argument that will never be known for it's logic...
YOU THINK.......LMAO
Chicklit, is there anything to that blob?
There ya go.
Everyone gets heard.
Then make up your own mind.
No one makes it for you.
Democracy in action.
Well..diddly doo dah.
Wheres da data on that?
I guess the post alone solved it ,eh?
LOL..pffftthhh.
There is never any data to support somes view, yet they cackle like chickens to slaughter seems.
Inhofe and Boehner would be proud of yas.
Tanning booth anyone?
I'm a hardcore conservative Christian, I can't stand all the democratic convos in here..
i think my momma could cure cancer withn turpentine
I'm with you on that Reed
Quoting reedzone:
I'm a hardcore conservative Christian, I can't stand all the democratic convos in here..
Same here buddy!
YEPPERS!
A know you are being facetious (thanks Storm with the Word of the Day) but that is precisely the problem. Obviously in the long term we cannot continue to use fossil fuels because, in human time scales, they are non-renewable. That is not really something that reasonable people argue with (there are still people who think the earth is flat but they are not reasonable). But it is what we have available *now*. With the exception of nuclear fission, there aren't really any other sources of energy that are both plentiful and that can be used to provide the type of power that modern civilization requires.
What to do? Stop using fossil fuels immediately? Certainly not, people will start consuming even more wood for fuel than they currently do. Yeah, that will work. Use wind? Great, except it is currently not feasible for the amounts of energy we need, and of course people don't want wind farms near them, and those huge windmills have a tendency to be bad for words. Use water? Great, environmentalists won't let us dam rivers because it is bad for something else. Geothermal has promise, but since most of the world isn't like Iceland it has not proven to be practical thus far. Of the different types of geothermal available, tapping hydrothermal systems is the easiest but they are not plentiful. Hot dry rocks has better geographic spread but current technology appears to make it close to prohibitively expensive.
In the short term, nuclear fission is probably the best option, and when treated with the proper care it is clean, but you have to store the waste somewhere eventually and no one wants nuclear waste in their backyards. In the short to medium term geothermal may become a viable energy source for much of human population. But the simple fact of the matter is we are not yet ready to end our dependence on fossil fuels.
How much oil is present in the computers you are using to say we should stop using oil?
LOL...I want one when you have it perfected!
It's great to be an American StormW!! :)
The earth has been gradually warming for the last 12,000 years, something about an ice age ending. In the recent past (last 2,000 years) the Earth has been warmer then it is today. While I agree pollution is bad and we should try hard not to be polluters, the link between man made CO2 and global warming is tenuous at best.
I am very leery of politicians (Al Gore) that “invent” problems that both enrich and enpower politicians, I suspect AWG is much more about power and money then AGW. However I do enjoy and follow the debate with interest and keep my personal carbon foot print as small as possible, mostly for economic reasons. Lol.
Rain, rain and more rain in SE Texas.
Like the other 6-7 Billion.
Being an American from Florida and whining about more Oil is Like being from Mexico and hollering for Immigration Laws.
Pfffthh.
Semper Fidelis,..first, to the Planet
The anger comes from the fact that instead of admitting that companies and everyone IS looking for ways to use less oil the Greenies keep screwing things up and going about it in a negative backwards fashion..
Just who did it help to shutdown all the BP stations in London?? Everyone already know about the mess in the Gulf and BP Solar has been making panels for years....
I'm in the Solar business in ST Thomas..
Why don't the activist work then use the money to buy panels or grow coconuts for bio diesel???
Cap and trade is a way to put the final nail in the coffin for what little is left of US industry. Obviously the sun puts out enough energy that we don't need to use oil IF we had the technology to harness it and use it. Current solar technology is totally inadequate to do that..oh yes you can read about all these great nano paint on thin film advances but you can't ever seem to find the commercial product. So why are these activist going to school to get material engineering degrees with their time or better volunteering in BP Solar labs to actually make something POSITIVE happen instead of continually doing negative things????
You cannot legislate your way out of industrial heating and it's to late to going back to living in caves...
I am far from that, but you don't see me involved with this sensitive topic. It's useless, the public is so split on it right now that all it creates is a hostile environment.
Back to the tropics. Yeah that thunderstorm blow up off of the Carolina's is very impressive indeed.
Hi breald,
The NHC gives it a passing reference at 8 a.m. Best watch the Tropical Weather Discussions here NHC.NOAA.GOV (located right side under the map). They post at 2 p.m. 8 p.m., 2 a.m., 8 a.m. Then if you click on Satellite on left side of page, there is an array of views there, if you're not already familiar with that site.
Off to work! Have a great day everyone.
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