Storms of My Grandchildren by Dr. James Hansen
"Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity" is NASA climate change scientist Dr. James Hansen's first book. Dr. Hansen is arguably the most visible and well-respected climate change scientist in the world, and has headed the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City since 1981. He is also an adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University. Dr. Hansen greatly raised awareness of the threat of global warming during his Congressional testimony during the record hot summer of 1988, and issued one of the first-ever climate model predictions of global warming (see an analysis here to see how his 1988 prediction did.) In 2009, Dr. Hansen was awarded the Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal, the highest honor bestowed by the American Meteorological Society, for his "outstanding contributions to climate modeling, understanding climate change forcings and sensitivity, and for clear communication of climate science in the public arena."
Storms of My Grandchildren focuses on the key concepts of the science of climate change, told through Hansen's personal experiences as a key player in field's scientific advancements and political dramas over the past 40 years. Dr. Hansen's writing style is very straight-forward and understandable, and he clearly explains the scientific concepts involved in a friendly way that anyone with a high school level science education can understand. I did not find any scientific errors in his book. However, some of his explanations are too long-winded, and the book is probably too long, at 274 pages. Nevertheless, Storms of My Grandchildren is a must-read, due to the importance of the subject matter and who is writing it. Hansen is not a fancy writer. He comes across as a plain Iowan who happened to stumble into the field of climate change and discovered things he had to speak out about. And he does plenty of speaking out in his book.
James Hansen vs. Richard Lindzen
Dr. Hansen's book opens with an interesting chapter on his participation in four meetings of Vice President Dick Cheney's cabinet-level Climate Task Force in 2001. It seems that the Bush Administration was prepared to let Dr. Hansen's views on climate change influence policy. However, Dr. Richard Lindzen, whom Hansen describes as "the dean of of global warming contrarians", was also present at the meetings. Dr.Lindzen was able to confuse the task force members enough so that they never took Dr. Hansen's views seriously. Hansen observes that "U.S. policies regarding carbon dioxide during the Bush-Cheney administration seem to have been based on, or at a minimum, congruent with, Lindzen's perspective." Hansen asserts that Lindzen was able to do this by acting more like a lawyer than a scientist: "He and other contrarians tend to act like lawyers defending a client, presenting only arguments that favor their client. This is in direct contradiction to...the scientific method." Hansen also comments that he asked Lindzen what he thought of the link between smoking and cancer, since Lindzen had been a witness for the tobacco industry decades earlier. Lindzen "began rattling off all the problems with the data relating smoking to health problems, which was closely analogous to his views of climate data."
Alarmism
Global warming contrarians often dismiss scientists such a Dr. Hansen as "alarmists" who concoct fearsome stories about climate change in order to get research funding. Dr. Lindzen made this accusation at Cheney's Climate Task Force in 2001. However, Dr. Hansen notes that "in 1981 I lost funding for research on the climate effects of carbon dioxide because the Energy Department was displeased with a paper, 'Climate Impact of Increasing Carbon Dioxide,' I had published in Science magazine. The paper made a number of predictions for the 21st century, including 'opening of the fabled Northwest Passage', which the Energy Department considered to be alarmist but which have since proven to be accurate." If you read Dr. Hansen's book and listen to his lectures, it is clear that he is not an alarmist out to get more research funding by hyping the dangers of global warming. Hansen says in his book that "my basic nature nature is very placid, even comfortably stolid", and that nature comes through very clearly in Storms of My Grandchildren. Hansen's writings express a quiet determination to plainly set forth the scientific truth on climate change. He has surprisingly few angry words towards the politicians, lobbyists, and scientists intent on distorting the scientific truth.
The science of climate change
The bulk of Storms of My Grandchildren is devoted to explanations of the science of climate change. Hansen's greatest concern is disintegration of the gerat ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica causing sea level rise: "Once the ice sheets begin to rapidly disintegrate, sea level would be continuously changing for centuries. Coastal cities would become impractical to maintain." Hansen is concerned that evidence from past climate periods show that the massive ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica can melt quickly, with large changes within a century. For example, sea level at the end of the most recent Ice Age, 13,000 - 14,000 years ago, rose at a rate of 3 - 5 meters (10 - 17 feet) per century for several centuries. Hansen is convinced that just a 1.7 -2°C warming, which would likely result if we stabilize CO2 at 450 ppm, would be a "disaster scenario" that would trigger rapid disintegration of the ice sheets and disastrous rises in sea level. Hansen advocates stabilizing CO2 at 350 ppm (we are currently at 390 ppm, with a rate of increase of 2 ppm per year.)
Another of Hansen's main concerns is the extinction of species. He notes that studies of more than 1,000 species of plants, animals, and insects have found an average migration rate towards the poles due to climate warming in the last half of the 20th century to be four miles per decade. "That is not fast enough. During the past thirty years the lines marking the regions in which a given average temperature prevails (isotherms) have been moving poleward at a rate of about thirty-five miles per decade. If greenhouse gases continue to increase at business-as-usual rates, then the rate of isotherm movement will double in this century to at least seventy miles per decade."
Hansen's other main concern is the release of large amounts of methane gas stored in sea-floor sediments in the form of methane hydrates. If ocean temperatures warm according to predictions, the higher temperatures at the sea floor may be enough to destabilize the methane hydrate sediments and release huge quantities of methane into the atmosphere. Methane is a greenhouse gas 20 - 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide.
Solutions to the climate change problem
Dr. Hansen is a controversial figure, since he has stepped outside his field of expertise and become an activist in promoting solutions to the climate change problem. He devotes a chapter called "An Honest, Effective Path" in the book to this. His main theme is that we need to tax fossil fuels using a "fee-and-dividend" approach. All of the tax money collected would be distributed uniformly to the public. This carbon tax would gradually rise, giving people time to adjust their lifestyle, choice of vehicle, home insulation, etc. Those who do better at reducing their fossil fuel use will receive more in the dividend than they will pay in the added costs of the products they buy. The approach is straightforward and does not require a large bureaucracy, but currently has little political support. Hansen is vehemently opposed to the approach that has the most political support, "Cap-and-trade": "Cap-and-trade is what governments and the people in alligator shoes (the lobbyists for special interests) are trying to foist on you. Whoops. As an objective scientist I should delete such personal opinions, to at least flag them. But I am sixty-eight years old, and I am fed up with the way things work in Washington." Hansen also promotes an overlooked type of nuclear power, "fast" reactors with liquid metal coolant that produce far less nuclear waste and are much more efficient than conventional nuclear reactors.
Quotes from the book
"Humanity treads today on a slippery slope. As we continue to pump greenhouse gases into the air, we move onto a steeper, even more slippery incline. We seem oblivious to the danger--unaware how close we may be to a situation in which a catastrophic slip becomes practically unavoidable, a slip where we suddenly lose all control and are pulled into a torrential stream that hurls us over a precipice to our demise."
"In order for a democracy to function well, the public needs to be honestly informed. But the undue influence of special interests and government greenwash pose formidable barriers to a well-informed public. Without a well-informed public, humanity itself and all species on the planet are threatened."
"Of course by 2005 I was well aware that the NASA Office of Public Affairs had become an office of propaganda. In 2004, I learned that NASA press releases related to global warming were sent to the White House, where they were edited to appear less serious or discarded entirely."
"If we let special interests rule, my grandchildren and yours will pay the price."
"The role of money in our capitals is the biggest problem for democracy and for the planet."
"The problem with asking people to pledge to reduce their fossil fuel use is that even if lots of people do, one effect is reduced demand for fossil fuel and thus a lower price--making it easier for someone else to burn...it is necessary for people to reduce their emissions, but it is not sufficient if the government does not adopt policies that cause much of the fossil fuels to be left in the ground permanently."
"I have argued that it is time to 'draw a line in the sand' and demand no new coal plants."
"The present situation is analogous to that faced by Lincoln with slavery and Churchill with Nazism--the time for compromises and appeasement is over."
"Humans are beginning to hammer the climate system with a forcing more than an order of magnitude more powerful than the forcings that nature employed."
"Once ice sheet disintegration begins in earnest, our grandchildren will live the rest of their lives in a chaotic transition period."
"After the ice is gone, would Earth proceed to the Venus syndrome, a runaway greenhouse effect that would destroy all life on the planet, perhaps permanently? While that is difficult to say based on present information, I've come to conclude that if we burn all reserves of oil, gas, and coal, there is a substantial chance we will initiate the runaway greenhouse. If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty."
"One suggestion I have for now: Support Bill McKibben and his organization 350.org. It is the most effective and responsible leadership in the public struggle for climate justice."
Commentary
James Hansen understands the Earth's climate as well as any person alive, and his concern about where our climate is headed makes Storms of My Grandchildren a must-read for everyone who cares about the world their grandchildren will inherit. Storms of My Grandchildren retails for $16.50 at Amazon.com. Dr. Hansen's web site is http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Sounds like a movie tagline...
That was kinda my point with my initial post..
If the facts are scary enough without any embellishing, then why the embellishment??
"Enthusiasm about science is commendable. Enthusiasm IN science should be avoided at all costs."
-Commander Spock, MY ENEMY MY ALLY
Not saying its not coming....but, for you again as usuall post the way you posted against IKE as Clearly the way you did was wrong. THAT IS CLEARLY!
July 27, 2010 at 5:00 a.m.
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… High Pressure Ridge across the northern Caribbean.
Comment High Pressure Ridge is expected to weaken by mid week as a Trough moves into the central Caribbean.
24-HOURS FORECAST
This Morning… Mainly sunny.
This Afternoon… Mainly sunny except for isolated showers across western parishes.
3-DAYS FORECAST (starting tomorrow)
Wed… Sunny morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly across
central and western parishes.
Thur…Partly cloudy morning. During the afternoon expect scattered showers and thunderstorms
across sections of most parishes.
Fri.. Cloudy morning. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly across central and western parishes.
Regionally…A Tropical Wave is approaching the eastern Caribbean.
nch
Fear mongering...An American tradition of both the left and right.
If weather is what you love, head in that direction. I have recently gone back to school and am giving my old 'çareer' up... it's scary and it's frustrating being behind everyone else but it's also well worth it. Doing something you love each day, enjoying going to work... it's worth the sacrifices. Just plan it out, go slow, take baby steps and have a back up plan for misteps and emergencies... but do it.
George Carlin
1937-2008
I'm doing well teddy, GOOD MORNING!
So you pick the ball and throw it to who?
naturally.
naturally?
Now that's the first that's you said that's made any sense.
I don't even know what were talking about!?!
Global warming is a tough issue and even more cloudy when one injects the fact that it is caused by man. I think everyone can agree that emitting toxins into the atmosphere is a bad thing. However, to make a case that man is resonsible for climate change is close to impossible at this point. It is not solid science that the earth is even warming. Yes, there is data that suggests this but there is NO concensus, despite what the GW crowd says. Scientists can point to many studies and mounds of data that does not fit into the GW model. That is simply a fact. People can claim things all they want but it doesn't make it true. The GW issue is about power, control and politics right now and not about consenus and solid scientific fact, it just isn't.
Oh, and Dick Cheney and George Bush didn't cause GW. Those who interject thier names in the discussion are idiots. The politics of GW is what keeps us from formulating an accurate scientific conclusion on the subject. If those who believe in GW continue to interject politics into the discussion they will find themselves more and more frustrated and no further along on thier desire to reach a consensus. That too is a fact!
The big picture should be the environment and how we as humans treat it. We can spend billions of dollars on GW if we choose or if we are forced to, but perhpas those billions would be better spent trying to make sure people have clean water. We have dead lakes, river's so rank you cannot even eat the fish in them, oceans teeming with chemicals and debris. Maybe we should fix these issues now. These are man-made problems and everyone can agree with that. How about we fix something and quit arguing about something we know very little about!
Or a thing against "kiddies" Drak and Levi were just around "kiddie" age a couple of years ago.
Here's the shear
Not a whole lot of 850 mb vort
Its something to keep on a eye on when you get this troughs stationary over the Atlantic.
Pretty much all of the developed world went through that stage, and indeed many places it's still pretty bad.
China will either figure things out on their own, or they won't. That fact shouldn't--and can't--allow us to lapse into aw-who-cares-we're-all-screwed-anyway-so-what's-the-point-of-even-trying cynicism. And for the record, China is spending far more at this moment developing alternate sources of energy; that nation's politicians realize the unsustainability of the current fossil-fuel-only paradigm, and are spending billions to avoid a future crisis. Would that we here in America had such foresight...
Storm I have struggled w that for decades.
So many stories. One person I trust is Burt Rutan. He was curious and went to the Nat'l Archives. In doing his research, some documentation turned up missing after his initial visits. He spoke of this during an interview about projects he was involved in, not about his views re the event.
The released LBJ tapes to some US Senator show his concern regarding a nuclear war with the Soviet Union over the assasination.
Nice try Storm. Looks like they are not taking the bait. Too bad, that could have been fun.
If you want to frame the debate in the context of decreasing pollution, that's great.. I stand ready..
If you want to frame the debate in the context of ridding the dependency on oil, once again, great argument and I am there..
Each of those are valid reasons to do what should be done..
So why does the AGW crowd resort to fear-mongering??
Further, think of all the hundreds of billions of dollars that have been put into TALKING about AGW. Into lobbying for it.
One example.. Al Gore crowed about how he raised 300 MILLION dollars that will be put into "Public Awareness Campaigns"... 300 MILLION dollars to talk about AGW..
Now, consider what that 300 Million could do to actually HELP the planet. That 300 Million could outfit a small city here in FL to run completely off the grid with Solar Power..
Don't you see?? The only people being helped by the AGW fanaticism is people like Al Gore with his 22-room mansion, Richard Branson with his personal space craft, the hack scientists, the lobbyists and the lawyers.
Is the planet getting any benefit?? Nope..
Are you or I getting any benefit?? Nope..
Imagine taking 1 billion dollars and set up a Rural Energy program and outfit compatible houses to run completely on solar power. Not only get them OFF the grid but equip them to actually FEED the grid.
Don't you think that the billions are better spent doing something like THAT??
Something that will actually HELP the planet??
Why should we continue to make Al Gore, Richard Branson, hack scientists, lobbyists and lawyers richer??
Why???
The problem i have is when you disagree with every post that is an opinion or not clear just like you just did to IKE.....LEVI never does anything like that. That is my problem.....And your not a KID either so stop posting things, when you use your imagiary KID status as a reason for your post!
Take the word 'scientific'out of the sentence above to make it true.
What I don't understand is why everyone on the right cares about GW if they don't believe in it? I don't argue anymore about whether Batman can beat Superman in tennis (I stopped believing in tennis years ago).
Is it the spending money on alternative energy? Even a small amount (small compared to other subsidies) would help a lot, not to mention act as a stimulus and would develop products we could sell to the rest of the world. So why the concern?
The guy in China who made millions selling the vuvuzella to South Africa didn't question whether they were annoying, he just met demand. Why can't we do the same with non oil based technologies?
ONLY A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC NORTH OF 28N WEST OF 65W ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION MAY ENTER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
I think they meant may enter the discussion over the next 6 to 12 hours.
WVLoopEasternUS
Put me on ignore. You won't hurt my feelings.
Link
Because the opposite is to allow two of the world's most well-funded and deeply-entrenched industries--Big Oil and Big Coal--to continue to control the political dialog while simultaneously despoiling the planet. Because doing nothing while the icecaps melt and the oceans rise is foolishness of the highest order. Because waiting for runaway GW before making a move to stop it is perhaps the single most illogical thing most folks have ever heard. Because our reliance on fossil fuels is the number one threat to our national security, so listening to Big Oil tell us how we need to stick with them and their product is simply ludicrous...
But mostly it's because I want my grandchildren and great-grandchildren to be proud of me.
You come here to further an agenda. At least you're up front about it.
Since when do people follow a treaty?
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