Storms of My Grandchildren by Dr. James Hansen
"Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity" is NASA climate change scientist Dr. James Hansen's first book. Dr. Hansen is arguably the most visible and well-respected climate change scientist in the world, and has headed the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City since 1981. He is also an adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University. Dr. Hansen greatly raised awareness of the threat of global warming during his Congressional testimony during the record hot summer of 1988, and issued one of the first-ever climate model predictions of global warming (see an analysis here to see how his 1988 prediction did.) In 2009, Dr. Hansen was awarded the Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal, the highest honor bestowed by the American Meteorological Society, for his "outstanding contributions to climate modeling, understanding climate change forcings and sensitivity, and for clear communication of climate science in the public arena."
Storms of My Grandchildren focuses on the key concepts of the science of climate change, told through Hansen's personal experiences as a key player in field's scientific advancements and political dramas over the past 40 years. Dr. Hansen's writing style is very straight-forward and understandable, and he clearly explains the scientific concepts involved in a friendly way that anyone with a high school level science education can understand. I did not find any scientific errors in his book. However, some of his explanations are too long-winded, and the book is probably too long, at 274 pages. Nevertheless, Storms of My Grandchildren is a must-read, due to the importance of the subject matter and who is writing it. Hansen is not a fancy writer. He comes across as a plain Iowan who happened to stumble into the field of climate change and discovered things he had to speak out about. And he does plenty of speaking out in his book.
James Hansen vs. Richard Lindzen
Dr. Hansen's book opens with an interesting chapter on his participation in four meetings of Vice President Dick Cheney's cabinet-level Climate Task Force in 2001. It seems that the Bush Administration was prepared to let Dr. Hansen's views on climate change influence policy. However, Dr. Richard Lindzen, whom Hansen describes as "the dean of of global warming contrarians", was also present at the meetings. Dr.Lindzen was able to confuse the task force members enough so that they never took Dr. Hansen's views seriously. Hansen observes that "U.S. policies regarding carbon dioxide during the Bush-Cheney administration seem to have been based on, or at a minimum, congruent with, Lindzen's perspective." Hansen asserts that Lindzen was able to do this by acting more like a lawyer than a scientist: "He and other contrarians tend to act like lawyers defending a client, presenting only arguments that favor their client. This is in direct contradiction to...the scientific method." Hansen also comments that he asked Lindzen what he thought of the link between smoking and cancer, since Lindzen had been a witness for the tobacco industry decades earlier. Lindzen "began rattling off all the problems with the data relating smoking to health problems, which was closely analogous to his views of climate data."
Alarmism
Global warming contrarians often dismiss scientists such a Dr. Hansen as "alarmists" who concoct fearsome stories about climate change in order to get research funding. Dr. Lindzen made this accusation at Cheney's Climate Task Force in 2001. However, Dr. Hansen notes that "in 1981 I lost funding for research on the climate effects of carbon dioxide because the Energy Department was displeased with a paper, 'Climate Impact of Increasing Carbon Dioxide,' I had published in Science magazine. The paper made a number of predictions for the 21st century, including 'opening of the fabled Northwest Passage', which the Energy Department considered to be alarmist but which have since proven to be accurate." If you read Dr. Hansen's book and listen to his lectures, it is clear that he is not an alarmist out to get more research funding by hyping the dangers of global warming. Hansen says in his book that "my basic nature nature is very placid, even comfortably stolid", and that nature comes through very clearly in Storms of My Grandchildren. Hansen's writings express a quiet determination to plainly set forth the scientific truth on climate change. He has surprisingly few angry words towards the politicians, lobbyists, and scientists intent on distorting the scientific truth.
The science of climate change
The bulk of Storms of My Grandchildren is devoted to explanations of the science of climate change. Hansen's greatest concern is disintegration of the gerat ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica causing sea level rise: "Once the ice sheets begin to rapidly disintegrate, sea level would be continuously changing for centuries. Coastal cities would become impractical to maintain." Hansen is concerned that evidence from past climate periods show that the massive ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica can melt quickly, with large changes within a century. For example, sea level at the end of the most recent Ice Age, 13,000 - 14,000 years ago, rose at a rate of 3 - 5 meters (10 - 17 feet) per century for several centuries. Hansen is convinced that just a 1.7 -2°C warming, which would likely result if we stabilize CO2 at 450 ppm, would be a "disaster scenario" that would trigger rapid disintegration of the ice sheets and disastrous rises in sea level. Hansen advocates stabilizing CO2 at 350 ppm (we are currently at 390 ppm, with a rate of increase of 2 ppm per year.)
Another of Hansen's main concerns is the extinction of species. He notes that studies of more than 1,000 species of plants, animals, and insects have found an average migration rate towards the poles due to climate warming in the last half of the 20th century to be four miles per decade. "That is not fast enough. During the past thirty years the lines marking the regions in which a given average temperature prevails (isotherms) have been moving poleward at a rate of about thirty-five miles per decade. If greenhouse gases continue to increase at business-as-usual rates, then the rate of isotherm movement will double in this century to at least seventy miles per decade."
Hansen's other main concern is the release of large amounts of methane gas stored in sea-floor sediments in the form of methane hydrates. If ocean temperatures warm according to predictions, the higher temperatures at the sea floor may be enough to destabilize the methane hydrate sediments and release huge quantities of methane into the atmosphere. Methane is a greenhouse gas 20 - 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide.
Solutions to the climate change problem
Dr. Hansen is a controversial figure, since he has stepped outside his field of expertise and become an activist in promoting solutions to the climate change problem. He devotes a chapter called "An Honest, Effective Path" in the book to this. His main theme is that we need to tax fossil fuels using a "fee-and-dividend" approach. All of the tax money collected would be distributed uniformly to the public. This carbon tax would gradually rise, giving people time to adjust their lifestyle, choice of vehicle, home insulation, etc. Those who do better at reducing their fossil fuel use will receive more in the dividend than they will pay in the added costs of the products they buy. The approach is straightforward and does not require a large bureaucracy, but currently has little political support. Hansen is vehemently opposed to the approach that has the most political support, "Cap-and-trade": "Cap-and-trade is what governments and the people in alligator shoes (the lobbyists for special interests) are trying to foist on you. Whoops. As an objective scientist I should delete such personal opinions, to at least flag them. But I am sixty-eight years old, and I am fed up with the way things work in Washington." Hansen also promotes an overlooked type of nuclear power, "fast" reactors with liquid metal coolant that produce far less nuclear waste and are much more efficient than conventional nuclear reactors.
Quotes from the book
"Humanity treads today on a slippery slope. As we continue to pump greenhouse gases into the air, we move onto a steeper, even more slippery incline. We seem oblivious to the danger--unaware how close we may be to a situation in which a catastrophic slip becomes practically unavoidable, a slip where we suddenly lose all control and are pulled into a torrential stream that hurls us over a precipice to our demise."
"In order for a democracy to function well, the public needs to be honestly informed. But the undue influence of special interests and government greenwash pose formidable barriers to a well-informed public. Without a well-informed public, humanity itself and all species on the planet are threatened."
"Of course by 2005 I was well aware that the NASA Office of Public Affairs had become an office of propaganda. In 2004, I learned that NASA press releases related to global warming were sent to the White House, where they were edited to appear less serious or discarded entirely."
"If we let special interests rule, my grandchildren and yours will pay the price."
"The role of money in our capitals is the biggest problem for democracy and for the planet."
"The problem with asking people to pledge to reduce their fossil fuel use is that even if lots of people do, one effect is reduced demand for fossil fuel and thus a lower price--making it easier for someone else to burn...it is necessary for people to reduce their emissions, but it is not sufficient if the government does not adopt policies that cause much of the fossil fuels to be left in the ground permanently."
"I have argued that it is time to 'draw a line in the sand' and demand no new coal plants."
"The present situation is analogous to that faced by Lincoln with slavery and Churchill with Nazism--the time for compromises and appeasement is over."
"Humans are beginning to hammer the climate system with a forcing more than an order of magnitude more powerful than the forcings that nature employed."
"Once ice sheet disintegration begins in earnest, our grandchildren will live the rest of their lives in a chaotic transition period."
"After the ice is gone, would Earth proceed to the Venus syndrome, a runaway greenhouse effect that would destroy all life on the planet, perhaps permanently? While that is difficult to say based on present information, I've come to conclude that if we burn all reserves of oil, gas, and coal, there is a substantial chance we will initiate the runaway greenhouse. If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty."
"One suggestion I have for now: Support Bill McKibben and his organization 350.org. It is the most effective and responsible leadership in the public struggle for climate justice."
Commentary
James Hansen understands the Earth's climate as well as any person alive, and his concern about where our climate is headed makes Storms of My Grandchildren a must-read for everyone who cares about the world their grandchildren will inherit. Storms of My Grandchildren retails for $16.50 at Amazon.com. Dr. Hansen's web site is http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NE
OF THE AZORES AND A 1022 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 27N72W.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SAHARAN AIR ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN
Sort of sums it up succintly...a typical July
lull in the basin...I believe we are in for a
late season surge of CV storms once dry air subsides..at least the ingredients are there..
warm SST's and low westerly shearing..
The Obama tax cuts saved my butt this year. That is all the proof i need. Alas, i've been lured out of lurking to comment on tax policy...argggh!
Your absolutely correct..
ADDRESSING NOAA'S PROPAGANDA CAMPAIGN ON GLOBAL WARMING
The end of the global warming debate (among the rational) is near.
The coming drop of global temperatures over the next year, to levels not seen since the 1990s, should put to an end to the AGW argument for good except for the most radical elements. The fact is that CO2 levels have increased by 5% over the past 10 years, while global temperatures have essentially held steady. The El Nino spike of the past year, which was forecast by me over a year ago, is now being used as evidence of global warming and of course the heat waves are being used. This was also something I said back in March, that the least the people blaming global warming for snow could wait until the hot summer and big hurricane season that I was forecasting came (which they are). However, also coming is major drop of .5 to .7C in the global temps which will take us below normal for a time. The disconnect with CO2 will be obvious to anyone that looks. In addition, the reason for the drop will easily be linked with the cooling of the Pacific, which will remain in its cool stage for the next 30 years. Once the Atlantic, still warm, goes into its cool stage in 10-15 years, global temps will fall even further, back to where they were in the 1970s.
The recovery of the northern ice caps will become more obvious in a two-steps-up, one-step-back fashion, but the Southern Hemisphere ice will retreat back to near normal. Overall global ice is right on top of normal and has had no change in the past 30 years.
Let's see who is right on this. Check out the video on the dramatic drop showing up on other climate models now.
Ciao for now.
Let's wait for time to come...
18z CMC shows it at 144
Link
12z ECMWF of course as you know shows 2 systems
Global warming and climate change..
Is Mother Nature having "hot flashes?"
She's always aging..
It is normal?
Maybe she shouldn't smoke so much-( coal,gas, Co2)
it may prolong her life...
:)
GFS CV STORMS
new cmc oz .cv stomrs just like gfs
240hr
CybrTeddy there are a few models calling for huge activity in 7-10 days now...the Euro and GFS have been consistent for 6-8 runs in a row...that usually screams trouble this time of year.
He chooses the AGW "side" because he is a scientist who studies climate and sees the evidence as conclusive.
Good to see some weather info in between all the GW stuff. -.-
I stay away from such discussions.
He doesnt give it any credit because it doesnt deserve any.
That's just from the Eastern Pacific ITCZ extending into northern S America.
Even if its the ITCZ, if vorticity strengthens, followed by a Low it can turn into something.
If you dont like science and reality you can go elsewhere.
lickitysplit yo mamma!! waddya mean "who"?
It would if the low level feature was over water...the ITCZ is streaked right over the S American coast and it's gonna be tough for an embedded area of low pressure to get out of there with low level easterlies. But yeah that's really the only significant weather occurring from any kind of surface feature other than the trough over the Yucatan in the entire Basin.
Yep, but it would have all the way to 60w to climb up a little in latitude and to try something.
That is area. Put a glob of peanut butter on a plate. Carefully measure it's area. Now, take about one-half of that peanut butter and spread it on a piece of bread. Measure it's area again. If you've done it right the area has increased even though you've used only half of the peanut butter!
Either we've discovered a magical way to create peanut butter out of nothing, or area isn't the same as volume.
Both the Arctic and Antarctic are losing ice. It's more dramatic in the Arctic.
XD
Yep it has a nice broad turning.
Well, I'm off to sleep.
Goodnight everyone! :D
Night!
Amazing how dominant the subtropical ridge is in the Atlantic and Caribbean right now...hardly anything but fair weather until you get to the Yucatan and GOM.
Nothing that's relevant to the current warming...unless you have some information you'd like to share?
Nothing yet - aren't we technically still in an ice age? ;)
Winter! That was easy. :)
And to top it off, ten years is insufficient to separate the climatic signal from the noise (of weather). So claiming that ten years is enough to overturn AGW theory (or support it) is doomed to failure.
Even so, 2000-2009 was the warmest decade on record. And 2010 is on pace to be the hottest year on record.
According to the AMSU data...600mb temperatures are at record highs and have been almost this entire month. 2010 is definitely on pace to be in the top 3 warmest years ever recorded.
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION
15:00 PM JST July 27 2010
============================
SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In East China Sea
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 31.0N 122.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northeast at 10 knots.
Viewing: 701 - 751
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