Storms of My Grandchildren by Dr. James Hansen
"Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity" is NASA climate change scientist Dr. James Hansen's first book. Dr. Hansen is arguably the most visible and well-respected climate change scientist in the world, and has headed the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City since 1981. He is also an adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University. Dr. Hansen greatly raised awareness of the threat of global warming during his Congressional testimony during the record hot summer of 1988, and issued one of the first-ever climate model predictions of global warming (see an analysis here to see how his 1988 prediction did.) In 2009, Dr. Hansen was awarded the Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal, the highest honor bestowed by the American Meteorological Society, for his "outstanding contributions to climate modeling, understanding climate change forcings and sensitivity, and for clear communication of climate science in the public arena."
Storms of My Grandchildren focuses on the key concepts of the science of climate change, told through Hansen's personal experiences as a key player in field's scientific advancements and political dramas over the past 40 years. Dr. Hansen's writing style is very straight-forward and understandable, and he clearly explains the scientific concepts involved in a friendly way that anyone with a high school level science education can understand. I did not find any scientific errors in his book. However, some of his explanations are too long-winded, and the book is probably too long, at 274 pages. Nevertheless, Storms of My Grandchildren is a must-read, due to the importance of the subject matter and who is writing it. Hansen is not a fancy writer. He comes across as a plain Iowan who happened to stumble into the field of climate change and discovered things he had to speak out about. And he does plenty of speaking out in his book.
James Hansen vs. Richard Lindzen
Dr. Hansen's book opens with an interesting chapter on his participation in four meetings of Vice President Dick Cheney's cabinet-level Climate Task Force in 2001. It seems that the Bush Administration was prepared to let Dr. Hansen's views on climate change influence policy. However, Dr. Richard Lindzen, whom Hansen describes as "the dean of of global warming contrarians", was also present at the meetings. Dr.Lindzen was able to confuse the task force members enough so that they never took Dr. Hansen's views seriously. Hansen observes that "U.S. policies regarding carbon dioxide during the Bush-Cheney administration seem to have been based on, or at a minimum, congruent with, Lindzen's perspective." Hansen asserts that Lindzen was able to do this by acting more like a lawyer than a scientist: "He and other contrarians tend to act like lawyers defending a client, presenting only arguments that favor their client. This is in direct contradiction to...the scientific method." Hansen also comments that he asked Lindzen what he thought of the link between smoking and cancer, since Lindzen had been a witness for the tobacco industry decades earlier. Lindzen "began rattling off all the problems with the data relating smoking to health problems, which was closely analogous to his views of climate data."
Alarmism
Global warming contrarians often dismiss scientists such a Dr. Hansen as "alarmists" who concoct fearsome stories about climate change in order to get research funding. Dr. Lindzen made this accusation at Cheney's Climate Task Force in 2001. However, Dr. Hansen notes that "in 1981 I lost funding for research on the climate effects of carbon dioxide because the Energy Department was displeased with a paper, 'Climate Impact of Increasing Carbon Dioxide,' I had published in Science magazine. The paper made a number of predictions for the 21st century, including 'opening of the fabled Northwest Passage', which the Energy Department considered to be alarmist but which have since proven to be accurate." If you read Dr. Hansen's book and listen to his lectures, it is clear that he is not an alarmist out to get more research funding by hyping the dangers of global warming. Hansen says in his book that "my basic nature nature is very placid, even comfortably stolid", and that nature comes through very clearly in Storms of My Grandchildren. Hansen's writings express a quiet determination to plainly set forth the scientific truth on climate change. He has surprisingly few angry words towards the politicians, lobbyists, and scientists intent on distorting the scientific truth.
The science of climate change
The bulk of Storms of My Grandchildren is devoted to explanations of the science of climate change. Hansen's greatest concern is disintegration of the gerat ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica causing sea level rise: "Once the ice sheets begin to rapidly disintegrate, sea level would be continuously changing for centuries. Coastal cities would become impractical to maintain." Hansen is concerned that evidence from past climate periods show that the massive ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica can melt quickly, with large changes within a century. For example, sea level at the end of the most recent Ice Age, 13,000 - 14,000 years ago, rose at a rate of 3 - 5 meters (10 - 17 feet) per century for several centuries. Hansen is convinced that just a 1.7 -2°C warming, which would likely result if we stabilize CO2 at 450 ppm, would be a "disaster scenario" that would trigger rapid disintegration of the ice sheets and disastrous rises in sea level. Hansen advocates stabilizing CO2 at 350 ppm (we are currently at 390 ppm, with a rate of increase of 2 ppm per year.)
Another of Hansen's main concerns is the extinction of species. He notes that studies of more than 1,000 species of plants, animals, and insects have found an average migration rate towards the poles due to climate warming in the last half of the 20th century to be four miles per decade. "That is not fast enough. During the past thirty years the lines marking the regions in which a given average temperature prevails (isotherms) have been moving poleward at a rate of about thirty-five miles per decade. If greenhouse gases continue to increase at business-as-usual rates, then the rate of isotherm movement will double in this century to at least seventy miles per decade."
Hansen's other main concern is the release of large amounts of methane gas stored in sea-floor sediments in the form of methane hydrates. If ocean temperatures warm according to predictions, the higher temperatures at the sea floor may be enough to destabilize the methane hydrate sediments and release huge quantities of methane into the atmosphere. Methane is a greenhouse gas 20 - 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide.
Solutions to the climate change problem
Dr. Hansen is a controversial figure, since he has stepped outside his field of expertise and become an activist in promoting solutions to the climate change problem. He devotes a chapter called "An Honest, Effective Path" in the book to this. His main theme is that we need to tax fossil fuels using a "fee-and-dividend" approach. All of the tax money collected would be distributed uniformly to the public. This carbon tax would gradually rise, giving people time to adjust their lifestyle, choice of vehicle, home insulation, etc. Those who do better at reducing their fossil fuel use will receive more in the dividend than they will pay in the added costs of the products they buy. The approach is straightforward and does not require a large bureaucracy, but currently has little political support. Hansen is vehemently opposed to the approach that has the most political support, "Cap-and-trade": "Cap-and-trade is what governments and the people in alligator shoes (the lobbyists for special interests) are trying to foist on you. Whoops. As an objective scientist I should delete such personal opinions, to at least flag them. But I am sixty-eight years old, and I am fed up with the way things work in Washington." Hansen also promotes an overlooked type of nuclear power, "fast" reactors with liquid metal coolant that produce far less nuclear waste and are much more efficient than conventional nuclear reactors.
Quotes from the book
"Humanity treads today on a slippery slope. As we continue to pump greenhouse gases into the air, we move onto a steeper, even more slippery incline. We seem oblivious to the danger--unaware how close we may be to a situation in which a catastrophic slip becomes practically unavoidable, a slip where we suddenly lose all control and are pulled into a torrential stream that hurls us over a precipice to our demise."
"In order for a democracy to function well, the public needs to be honestly informed. But the undue influence of special interests and government greenwash pose formidable barriers to a well-informed public. Without a well-informed public, humanity itself and all species on the planet are threatened."
"Of course by 2005 I was well aware that the NASA Office of Public Affairs had become an office of propaganda. In 2004, I learned that NASA press releases related to global warming were sent to the White House, where they were edited to appear less serious or discarded entirely."
"If we let special interests rule, my grandchildren and yours will pay the price."
"The role of money in our capitals is the biggest problem for democracy and for the planet."
"The problem with asking people to pledge to reduce their fossil fuel use is that even if lots of people do, one effect is reduced demand for fossil fuel and thus a lower price--making it easier for someone else to burn...it is necessary for people to reduce their emissions, but it is not sufficient if the government does not adopt policies that cause much of the fossil fuels to be left in the ground permanently."
"I have argued that it is time to 'draw a line in the sand' and demand no new coal plants."
"The present situation is analogous to that faced by Lincoln with slavery and Churchill with Nazism--the time for compromises and appeasement is over."
"Humans are beginning to hammer the climate system with a forcing more than an order of magnitude more powerful than the forcings that nature employed."
"Once ice sheet disintegration begins in earnest, our grandchildren will live the rest of their lives in a chaotic transition period."
"After the ice is gone, would Earth proceed to the Venus syndrome, a runaway greenhouse effect that would destroy all life on the planet, perhaps permanently? While that is difficult to say based on present information, I've come to conclude that if we burn all reserves of oil, gas, and coal, there is a substantial chance we will initiate the runaway greenhouse. If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty."
"One suggestion I have for now: Support Bill McKibben and his organization 350.org. It is the most effective and responsible leadership in the public struggle for climate justice."
Commentary
James Hansen understands the Earth's climate as well as any person alive, and his concern about where our climate is headed makes Storms of My Grandchildren a must-read for everyone who cares about the world their grandchildren will inherit. Storms of My Grandchildren retails for $16.50 at Amazon.com. Dr. Hansen's web site is http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2010/07/could_2011_be_the_year_without.html
Also, I'm surprised none of the Alarmists are talking about the recent record cold across South America.
You mean the cold snap that has killed hundreds of people? dude, you know what causes record cold right?
We had one quick sprinkle and a couple of rumbles of thunder in the distance- just enough to tease and raise the dewpoint even higher when the sun came back out...
Some nasty storms to the NW now, though.
The climate models that can go out 1-2 years into the future are predicting a dramatic cool-down worldwide, which should result in a great uptick in global sea ice, which those of us watching knew was coming because of the decadal oceanic cycles beginning to reverse. Ice-free arctic by 2013 doesn't look likely if the models verify, and these are the same models whose cousins are predicting the never-ending warm-up with pretty much no blips in it where we go back below normal. We're not even close to going down below 2007 when the death spiral was being preached. And I will point out again, globally, we're already at normal....what's the worry? If anything we'll go slightly above-normal globally in sea-ice if both poles experience well-below normal temperatures, along with the equator.
Yeah, that would be an excellent argument... except for the fact that climate models *PREDICT* an increase in sea ice in the Antarctic. The arctic is expected to decline, while the Antarctic is expected to increase, then level, and only in the long term decline. The Northern and Southern hemispheres are incredibly different environments for many reasons -- not the least of which is that one has a giant land mass and the other doesn't.
To be more specific, the models call for increasing precipitation in Antarctica, more moderated temperature changes due to the circumpolar current, and increasing ice outflow from Antarctic glaciers (which correspondingly increases sea ice).
Well I "guess" that could go along with the tropics...
Is there anything going on that is interesting that could develop in the next week or two that could be of significance?
you do understand, that it also raised taxes for people right? and that 288 billion is not alot since it is for people and businesses?
Al Gore.
what's your take on 36 5 if you are still here. any potential?
ummmmm.........a really big herd of mammoths ate something bad which gave them gas?
Good...but boring.
Storm idk if you have time to answer this, but wouldn't no or very few tropical cyclones be a bad thing? Since there would be no heat transfer from the equator regions to the poles?
k. thanks!
Nothing like propaganda (.gov)
a non partisan site would be nice
Thanks storm!
What an amazing concentration of ignorance. Let's tick down the list.
* Yes, we're in a solar minimum. It's also been a *record hot year* for most of the year so far.
* The United States is not the world.
* North America is not the world
* Despite their implication, Canada has been having record *warm* winters.
* The January 2010 US continentnal average temperature was 0.3 degrees *warmer* than average. I don't have time to dig up every month for each year mentioned, but take that as an example.
* Anecdotes are not global temperature anomalies, which are *way* above average, and at record levels. Once again, regional != global.
* High-latitude volcanoes are very poor at changing the planet's temperature. There have been examples where it did, but they took extraordinary eruptions.
i know, he's always fussing about other people's articles, but .gov is not the most believable source either - no matter whose administration
+1 haha
Levi, let's actually read what I wrote. I'll put things in caps to make it easy for you. Once again, I'll ask you: WHICH climate model are you referring to? Or did you just read some blog and take what they said as gospel without bothering to find out the details for yourself? The models that can go out "1-2 years"? It's NOT CLIMATE if it only goes out 1-2 years. Climate models predict WEATHER WHICH DOES NOT MATCH WHAT WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN, but which AVERAGES OUT OVER TIME to reflect the climate state.
I hope the caps will help you in your next response which, I hope, will actually address what I wrote.
Nurse: "Doctor! I have a patient with a 93.6F degree body temperature and another with a 103.6F degree body temperature!"
Doctor: "Great! They average out to normal!"
The main feature that is dominating the entire Atlantic right now is the Saharan Air Layer, which has infiltrated the entire tropical Atlantic with dry, stable air. There is no shortage of tropical waves, but all of them are encountering unfavorable conditions.
Tropical Wave 1: Dying wave, killed by dry air, devoid of convection and with only light surface winds left.
Tropical Wave 2: A healthy-looking wave with widely-scattered strong winds at 850 mb. Wind shear over it is a light 10 kts, but it is also about to hit a huge line of dry air, as seen on the map, which will severely inhibit it from developing.
Tropical Wave 3: About to emerge off of Africa, this one is in a similar situation as TW2. It's well-organized, but is surrounded on almost all sides by dry, stable air.
AOI: This is the wave that MiamiHurricanes was talking about earlier. And although it is surrounded by very moist air and high SST's, and does have some solid 850 mb winds associated with it, there is something else that will inhibit it. Take a look at the ULL just to its north. This low is bringing 20-30 kts of wind shear over it, and this ULL has not only barely moved, it has also gotten a bit stronger over the last 12 hours. So the high wind shear is going to continue. This will make it extremely difficult for this wave to turn into anything.
So to sum it up, nothing's going to be happening in the tropics for quite some time. The only places in the entire Atlantic conductive for development moisture-wise are the western Caribbean and GOM, but both are presently mostly taken up by high wind shear, with only one or two small patches where anything could develop. So until something changes, we're not going to see anything for quite a while IMO.
BP and others are doing a fine job of that already, potentially in places as far away as Alaska, the Red Sea, China and Australia...and methane is shown to be a greater catalyst for global warming than innocent ole' CO2.
Wow, on a night filled with juvenile, vitriolic posts, yours managed to be the most reactionary and petty. Congratulations. I am quite shocked that there are so many AGW deniers posting on the good doctor's blog, but that doesn't mean that I'm going to go on some peurile tirade and swear the thing off. I greatly respect levi and storm's tropical analysis and that won't change because we disagree on climatology- hell, I even enjoy Bastardi when he's not on a rant. I just find it strange that the AGW denier position has shifted from "there is no GW" to "its not anthropogenic" to "it might even be good for us." Reminds me of the "god of the gaps."
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .
As of Tue 27 Jul 2010 04:00:02Z
2010 Storms
All Active Year
Atlantic
East Pacific
Central Pacific
West Pacific
91W.INVEST
92W.INVEST
Indian Ocean
Southern Hemisphere
Oklahoma Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-line Winds, and Flooding
Declared July 26, 2010
N
Map of Declared Counties for Disaster 1926
* Federal Aid Programs For State Of Oklahoma Disaster Recovery, Jul 26 New
* President Declares Major Disaster For Oklahoma, Jul 26 New
* More News for This Declaration
* Designated Counties
* Disaster Federal Register Notices
* Individual Assistance FOIA
* Recent FEMA Press Releases
WOW look at the time.. If I want to be a productive American Citizen I better get to bed.
Please share on my blog if you'd like!
http://www.stormsofmygrandchildren.com/
Looks to be heading.. er.. west.
no way. that is so cool!
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NE
OF THE AZORES AND A 1022 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 27N72W.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SAHARAN AIR ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN
Sort of sums it up succintly...a typical July
lull in the basin...I believe we are in for a
late season surge of CV storms once dry air subsides..at least the ingredients are there..
warm SST's and low westerly shearing..
Viewing: 651 - 701
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