Storms of My Grandchildren by Dr. James Hansen
"Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity" is NASA climate change scientist Dr. James Hansen's first book. Dr. Hansen is arguably the most visible and well-respected climate change scientist in the world, and has headed the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City since 1981. He is also an adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University. Dr. Hansen greatly raised awareness of the threat of global warming during his Congressional testimony during the record hot summer of 1988, and issued one of the first-ever climate model predictions of global warming (see an analysis here to see how his 1988 prediction did.) In 2009, Dr. Hansen was awarded the Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal, the highest honor bestowed by the American Meteorological Society, for his "outstanding contributions to climate modeling, understanding climate change forcings and sensitivity, and for clear communication of climate science in the public arena."
Storms of My Grandchildren focuses on the key concepts of the science of climate change, told through Hansen's personal experiences as a key player in field's scientific advancements and political dramas over the past 40 years. Dr. Hansen's writing style is very straight-forward and understandable, and he clearly explains the scientific concepts involved in a friendly way that anyone with a high school level science education can understand. I did not find any scientific errors in his book. However, some of his explanations are too long-winded, and the book is probably too long, at 274 pages. Nevertheless, Storms of My Grandchildren is a must-read, due to the importance of the subject matter and who is writing it. Hansen is not a fancy writer. He comes across as a plain Iowan who happened to stumble into the field of climate change and discovered things he had to speak out about. And he does plenty of speaking out in his book.
James Hansen vs. Richard Lindzen
Dr. Hansen's book opens with an interesting chapter on his participation in four meetings of Vice President Dick Cheney's cabinet-level Climate Task Force in 2001. It seems that the Bush Administration was prepared to let Dr. Hansen's views on climate change influence policy. However, Dr. Richard Lindzen, whom Hansen describes as "the dean of of global warming contrarians", was also present at the meetings. Dr.Lindzen was able to confuse the task force members enough so that they never took Dr. Hansen's views seriously. Hansen observes that "U.S. policies regarding carbon dioxide during the Bush-Cheney administration seem to have been based on, or at a minimum, congruent with, Lindzen's perspective." Hansen asserts that Lindzen was able to do this by acting more like a lawyer than a scientist: "He and other contrarians tend to act like lawyers defending a client, presenting only arguments that favor their client. This is in direct contradiction to...the scientific method." Hansen also comments that he asked Lindzen what he thought of the link between smoking and cancer, since Lindzen had been a witness for the tobacco industry decades earlier. Lindzen "began rattling off all the problems with the data relating smoking to health problems, which was closely analogous to his views of climate data."
Alarmism
Global warming contrarians often dismiss scientists such a Dr. Hansen as "alarmists" who concoct fearsome stories about climate change in order to get research funding. Dr. Lindzen made this accusation at Cheney's Climate Task Force in 2001. However, Dr. Hansen notes that "in 1981 I lost funding for research on the climate effects of carbon dioxide because the Energy Department was displeased with a paper, 'Climate Impact of Increasing Carbon Dioxide,' I had published in Science magazine. The paper made a number of predictions for the 21st century, including 'opening of the fabled Northwest Passage', which the Energy Department considered to be alarmist but which have since proven to be accurate." If you read Dr. Hansen's book and listen to his lectures, it is clear that he is not an alarmist out to get more research funding by hyping the dangers of global warming. Hansen says in his book that "my basic nature nature is very placid, even comfortably stolid", and that nature comes through very clearly in Storms of My Grandchildren. Hansen's writings express a quiet determination to plainly set forth the scientific truth on climate change. He has surprisingly few angry words towards the politicians, lobbyists, and scientists intent on distorting the scientific truth.
The science of climate change
The bulk of Storms of My Grandchildren is devoted to explanations of the science of climate change. Hansen's greatest concern is disintegration of the gerat ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica causing sea level rise: "Once the ice sheets begin to rapidly disintegrate, sea level would be continuously changing for centuries. Coastal cities would become impractical to maintain." Hansen is concerned that evidence from past climate periods show that the massive ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica can melt quickly, with large changes within a century. For example, sea level at the end of the most recent Ice Age, 13,000 - 14,000 years ago, rose at a rate of 3 - 5 meters (10 - 17 feet) per century for several centuries. Hansen is convinced that just a 1.7 -2°C warming, which would likely result if we stabilize CO2 at 450 ppm, would be a "disaster scenario" that would trigger rapid disintegration of the ice sheets and disastrous rises in sea level. Hansen advocates stabilizing CO2 at 350 ppm (we are currently at 390 ppm, with a rate of increase of 2 ppm per year.)
Another of Hansen's main concerns is the extinction of species. He notes that studies of more than 1,000 species of plants, animals, and insects have found an average migration rate towards the poles due to climate warming in the last half of the 20th century to be four miles per decade. "That is not fast enough. During the past thirty years the lines marking the regions in which a given average temperature prevails (isotherms) have been moving poleward at a rate of about thirty-five miles per decade. If greenhouse gases continue to increase at business-as-usual rates, then the rate of isotherm movement will double in this century to at least seventy miles per decade."
Hansen's other main concern is the release of large amounts of methane gas stored in sea-floor sediments in the form of methane hydrates. If ocean temperatures warm according to predictions, the higher temperatures at the sea floor may be enough to destabilize the methane hydrate sediments and release huge quantities of methane into the atmosphere. Methane is a greenhouse gas 20 - 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide.
Solutions to the climate change problem
Dr. Hansen is a controversial figure, since he has stepped outside his field of expertise and become an activist in promoting solutions to the climate change problem. He devotes a chapter called "An Honest, Effective Path" in the book to this. His main theme is that we need to tax fossil fuels using a "fee-and-dividend" approach. All of the tax money collected would be distributed uniformly to the public. This carbon tax would gradually rise, giving people time to adjust their lifestyle, choice of vehicle, home insulation, etc. Those who do better at reducing their fossil fuel use will receive more in the dividend than they will pay in the added costs of the products they buy. The approach is straightforward and does not require a large bureaucracy, but currently has little political support. Hansen is vehemently opposed to the approach that has the most political support, "Cap-and-trade": "Cap-and-trade is what governments and the people in alligator shoes (the lobbyists for special interests) are trying to foist on you. Whoops. As an objective scientist I should delete such personal opinions, to at least flag them. But I am sixty-eight years old, and I am fed up with the way things work in Washington." Hansen also promotes an overlooked type of nuclear power, "fast" reactors with liquid metal coolant that produce far less nuclear waste and are much more efficient than conventional nuclear reactors.
Quotes from the book
"Humanity treads today on a slippery slope. As we continue to pump greenhouse gases into the air, we move onto a steeper, even more slippery incline. We seem oblivious to the danger--unaware how close we may be to a situation in which a catastrophic slip becomes practically unavoidable, a slip where we suddenly lose all control and are pulled into a torrential stream that hurls us over a precipice to our demise."
"In order for a democracy to function well, the public needs to be honestly informed. But the undue influence of special interests and government greenwash pose formidable barriers to a well-informed public. Without a well-informed public, humanity itself and all species on the planet are threatened."
"Of course by 2005 I was well aware that the NASA Office of Public Affairs had become an office of propaganda. In 2004, I learned that NASA press releases related to global warming were sent to the White House, where they were edited to appear less serious or discarded entirely."
"If we let special interests rule, my grandchildren and yours will pay the price."
"The role of money in our capitals is the biggest problem for democracy and for the planet."
"The problem with asking people to pledge to reduce their fossil fuel use is that even if lots of people do, one effect is reduced demand for fossil fuel and thus a lower price--making it easier for someone else to burn...it is necessary for people to reduce their emissions, but it is not sufficient if the government does not adopt policies that cause much of the fossil fuels to be left in the ground permanently."
"I have argued that it is time to 'draw a line in the sand' and demand no new coal plants."
"The present situation is analogous to that faced by Lincoln with slavery and Churchill with Nazism--the time for compromises and appeasement is over."
"Humans are beginning to hammer the climate system with a forcing more than an order of magnitude more powerful than the forcings that nature employed."
"Once ice sheet disintegration begins in earnest, our grandchildren will live the rest of their lives in a chaotic transition period."
"After the ice is gone, would Earth proceed to the Venus syndrome, a runaway greenhouse effect that would destroy all life on the planet, perhaps permanently? While that is difficult to say based on present information, I've come to conclude that if we burn all reserves of oil, gas, and coal, there is a substantial chance we will initiate the runaway greenhouse. If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty."
"One suggestion I have for now: Support Bill McKibben and his organization 350.org. It is the most effective and responsible leadership in the public struggle for climate justice."
Commentary
James Hansen understands the Earth's climate as well as any person alive, and his concern about where our climate is headed makes Storms of My Grandchildren a must-read for everyone who cares about the world their grandchildren will inherit. Storms of My Grandchildren retails for $16.50 at Amazon.com. Dr. Hansen's web site is http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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The 5kt shear area is too close to land, so that does not count. Most of the wave is under 15 to 30 kts.
Looks like the high would push it back to the west or northwest.. *coughAndrewcough* but further north.
Whoa....dude I can only imagine what you said but yeah I think I would be having BBQ Rattlesnake tonight and the rattle posted on a toothpick for all the other varmits to see as a reminder of what happens when you threatin my baby.
The ol fight or flight cells would be firing on all 8.
I wont speculate where.
Correct. Look at the ridge.
I think it's very conservative too. The old GFS seems to have been "over-upgraded." They need to issue another version ASAP. lol
THURSDAY 6:30 AM
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INDEX
I have developed an index which can tell you the state of the tropical Atlantic in a heart beat. I will be waiting for an independent source (hint, some grad student somewhere that wants an easy thesis) to do a verification of my theory. Why don't I do it? Why should I? With over five million words served in about 10 years of blogging, it's just another idea that you can get here.
But for those of you in academia... quick and easy, and you will be legend, solving the entire tropical development problem in one bold master stroke.
Here is the idea. Take the pressure at 10 north, 75 west and subtract it from the pressure (in millibars) at 20 north, 75 west. The bigger the difference, the less likely the development. For instance, this morning it's close to 5 mb. In a week, it'll be closer to 1 mb.
What does this tell us physically, though? Why does it mean something? Well, higher pressure near 20 north means stronger Caribbean easterlies and this destroys convergence in much of the tropical Atlantic Basin. If there is large-scale surge of east winds in the southern and central Caribbean, it means major subsidence to the east over the Atlantic Basin.
Now what happens when this lowers? It means less easterly wind in the Caribbean and the development of a large-scale upward motion pattern. Watch what happens the next five to seven days as this occurs.
The models are seeing this, and now it's a matter of time before they decide where they can bundle energy. In addition with water temperatures plummeting west of South America, it means higher pressures develop over northwest South America, and actually pushes the trough over South America out into the Caribbean, farther north. Pressures become higher than normal farther south, lower than normal farther north, and you have the needed look to pile air up. With the water so warm, it means that a naming "frenzy" is likely this season. In a way, you can see on the 240-hour Euro how we could have two storms cranking at once by late next week, with low pressures (sub-1010) throughout all the western Caribbean and the current model run with the hurricane southwest of Bermuda. Again, trust no detail, but the message is growing clearer.
Just like I think AccuWeather should send me, all expenses paid, to Tahiti to make sure their barometer is correct in measuring the SOI a week to 10 days at a plus-Jamaican resort, in the interest of science of course, is probably what is needed here. As for the quick and easy thesis for the grad student, consider it my gift to academia, especially since I believe I will be right on the AGW issue and, if so, a lot of funding on global warming research may go by the wayside. But see, I have given you something else to research.
Bad Joey. Bad, bad. Stop saying things like that, given your alma mater's funding for such things.
They can make it up by hosting debates on the matter. How's that?
Ciao, for now. *****
Been a while, for sure. 15 storms in the 19th century (including five storms in six consecutive years from 1851-1856, then another burst of five in eight years, 1877-1886), followed by just seven in the 20th century. The last was Kate in 1985, while the most damaging was 1893's Sea Island storm, which killed as many as 2,000 people.
Yesterday i was walking downstairs to walk out and my wife was screaming for help. I walked out to the Lani where she was and a Rattle Snake had her cornered while she was sitting in a chair just 10 ft. from here......she could not move. When i walked outside and seen what was going on i can't repeat what i said but, the snake was coiled and shaking its tail......which is never a good sign......while she was sitting it come out from under our BBQ grill and positioned himself in front of my wife...i have no idea how he got into the Lani area as it is completely enclosed. But, from now on we will watch our late nite BBQ's we do .....unreal! Oh yes there is one less Rattler out there today today.
Take any pics?
Well that year not just that "only takes one" hurricane took aim at florida, but four did!
That's what I was noticing about it. According to the new GFS we'll be lucky to have 8 storms this season.
Sorry :)
I'm sure they will do "tweaks" along the way. Funny that after HPC Tropical Desk complained about the GFS, at the end then basically states the ECMWF indicates the same thing.
Link? Once again, unsourced information is posted here. If you can't prove it, then it didn't happen. At least that's what I read here earlier. :) (You know I'm just kidding with you.)
Temps look to have peaked at 37,2C(99F), smashing the previous record by 1,3C! phew should be some impressive thunderstorms tonight as a cold front moves through to break the heat for now :)
Kate wasn't even a direct hit. She was a "backdoor" hurricane that made landfall in the FL Panhandle and crossed over GA from the SW. David in 1979 was the last hurricane to make landfall in GA.
LOL
Very interesting... is good that these type of observations are public as it gives extra boost on its visibility and critics so they can hopefully be addressed if indeed their guidance proof to be way off.
Can you believe i did not..i immediately got it out of the wifes site and thru it out our lake......STUPID that i did not but, she just wanted if off the lani ASAP and that was the first thing i thought to do was to throw it in the lake.....
Once again, JB undermines a somewhat promising thesis--not to mention his own shrinking credibility--by injecting an inane, self-aggrandizing, completely baseless statement into an otherwise reasonable blog post. Pity...
LOL!
Lol I only said that to pretend to stir the pot. I mention Andrew at every opportunity to make fun of some of the insane trolls on here :P
Oh by all means, CAP and every third word would for sure be bleeped out. Couldnt blame him a bit. Id be shakin like a leaf trying to kill that thing.
I'll say it about July. It was a bust.
I'll also say his forecast for July was a bust. He's not alone though....
AccuWeather.com's Bastardi Revises Forecast
* On June 21, Joe Bastardi, Chief Hurricane Meteorologist for AccuWeather.com, revised his earlier forecast to predict that 18 to 21 named storms will occur in the 2010 hurricane season, four of which are expected to occur during July. The revised forecast expects five or six of the named storms to be hurricanes.
ROFLMAO.....well i can verify by many sources including StormW as we did have lunch that i am older fart if that means anything...LOL
Again, this is all guess work until something actually develop but I didn't take a look at the loop. It bends W at the end of the run. This is VERY unlikely to happen, not that it can't but its 240 hours out. We need to get a system first, and get some consistency in the ECMWF.
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