TD 3 growing more organized
Tropical Depression Three is steadily organizing, and appears poised to become a much stronger storm than was forecast. Water vapor satellite loops show that the upper level low to the west of TD 3 that has been bringing high levels of wind shear to the storm is now moving faster to the west than predicted. This faster motion has resulted in a reduction in wind shear over TD 3, to a moderate 10 knots. Satellite images of TD 3 show that the storm is taking advantage of the lower shear by developing several low-level spiral bands to the north and east of the center. However, the center of circulation is still exposed to view, and dry air is still getting injected into the core of the storm from the southwest. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have not increased in intensity this afternoon, and the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the core of the storm is still limited. TD 3 will need to build more intense thunderstorms near its center before significant intensification can occur. TD 3 is a small storm, and surface observations in the Bahamas do not show the circulation very well. An outer rain band of TD 3 is now visible on Miami long-range radar, and a flood watch has been issued for all of South Florida. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm at present, and have found top surface winds of 35 - 40 mph.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 3.
Track Forecast for TD 3
The storm is in a straightforward steering current environment, and TD 3 should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Sunday. This will bring the storm ashore over the Florida Keys or South Florida on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) foresee a track more to the north than the previous set of model runs. This increases the threat to the oil spill region, and I give a 40% chance that the oil spill region will see tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or higher this weekend. Oil recovery and relief well drilling operations should cease. If TD 3 makes a direct hit on the oil spill region as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds, it will likely drive a storm surge of 3 - 6 feet with high waves on top into the Louisiana marshlands, fouling a large area with oil. Oil would also penetrate into Lake Pontchartrain, which lies just two feet above sea level. However, the wave action of the storm will dilute the oil to some degree, which may limit the damage to the marshlands.
If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest 5 pm probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher:
Marathon 55%
Marco Island 43%
Miami 34%
New Orleans 33%
Galveston 13%
Intensity Forecast for TD 3
The primary detriment to development of TD 3 for the next three days will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to TD 3, it will bring wind shear of about 10 knots to the storm. This will allow for steady intensification of perhaps 20 mph per day, and TD 3 could be a hurricane by Sunday at that pace. However, if the upper-level low slows down a bit, relative to TD 3, more shear and dry air will affect the storm, potentially weakening it. None of the computer models is calling for TD 3 to strengthen into a hurricane, but if the shear continues at 10 knots, I expect TD 3 will become a hurricane. My low-confidence intensity forecast gives TD 3 a 40% chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of TD 3 being a hurricane at 2 pm Sunday at 15% with their 5pm advisory.
98L
An area of disturbed weather (98L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. This system is under a low amount of shear, 5 - 10 knots, and probably does not have enough time to organize into a tropical depression before making landfall along the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border on Friday.
Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Next update
I'll have an update in the morning. ABC World News Tonight will probably show a sound bite I did for them today, on their 6:30pm broadcast.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Well I'm not forecasting development but I'm watching it. Ya the 12z ECMWF seems to develop more the southern end of the wave in the Caribbean and take it up into the west gulf in 5 days. We'll see how it goes. It's a sneaky little thing that doesn't stand out much right now, but it may start making noise on the weather map in a few days.
Convection is good, but convection without good outflow is NOT good. Outlow will need to reestablish itself or that T-Storm complex will eventually collapse.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE EAST OF ARKANSAS TO BEGIN THE LONG
PERIOD. BY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE
WEST. THE RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE U.S. THURSDAY.
I did at 6:30 CST.
It's just his opinion. He is entitled just like everyone on this site is. He might be right the way things are going for Bonnie.
Can we please keep the personal attacks to yourself! No place for that on this bog!
Thanks in advance! :)
but i has out flow all it needs is a good d-max with all that 85 degree water
I disagree. It seems to follow exactly with the satellite presentation of the storm. If it has a lot of convection, regardless of low-level organization, people get all "OMG rapid intensification." As soon as the convection dies down, again despite organization structure, people switch to "it's dying."
Thats Verga..
the radar is fine..
We're not being Hurrikated. lol. Look at the satellite. Listen to those that know more. Bonnie's getting choked like Luca Brasi. But she's a fighter. She'll probably maintain 40-50MPH. That's it for now. Hopefully over the Gulf she'll stay lean. She's surrounded by trouble from 3 sides, but she won't meet the same result that Luca did.
99.9% positive I'll be doing that...
Agreed Thelmores...CCHS - we got your back. No worries.
It's outflow is currently very limited and only found in the NW and SE quadrants. The system is getting stretched out in those directions as outflow is not found on the north or south side.
WTNT33 KNHC 230242
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1100 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010
...CENTER OF BONNIE APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...NEW
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 76.5W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO DEERFIELD BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD
INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER
INLET INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
INTEREST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF BONNIE. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST ON FRIDAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST. BONNIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST ON
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BONNIE IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON FRIDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON THE FLORIDA COAST AND FLORIDA KEYS WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA
KEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 JUL 2010 Time : 014500 UTC
Lat : 23:21:28 N Lon : 76:26:27 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1003.0mb/ 39.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.7 2.9 2.9
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb
Center Temp : -17.0C Cloud Region Temp : -37.3C
Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.50 ARC in LT GRAY
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
When has the blog ever been mocked on national TV?
wow uncalled for enjoy your 24 hr ban
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO DEERFIELD BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD.
You can look at this and tell me thats good outflow...Link Really??
I hate that word,..its too easy to call a Id-it a troll.
Dont feed Monomania and one wont feed the person seeking a response.
Use the controls.
Its aint rocket science.
[tired of immature and catty behaviour in the blog, regardless of age of blogger]
He is not a kid that you think he is....he was bustted the other nite.....so let him defend himself....
Oh I know:-) Its all good!
I imagine that tomorrow I will wake up to very cloudy sky's....
LOL I BEEN TRYING TO TELL YOU PEOPLE WHAT BONNIE HAD TO GO THROUGH BUT SOME OF YOU INCLUDING DR MASTER WAS PREDICTING A HURRICANE...NO WAY BONNIES REACHES HURRICANE STATUS...NHC REALLY SCREWED UP THIS TIME SHUTTING DOWN OIL OPERATIONS IN THE GOM...
Boy you're not the sharpest tool in the shed are you. It was you at 4 pm CST today that said there was no way Bonnie would make it to a Tropical Storm before it hit Florida and here you are making more assumptions it won't make Hurricane Strength. Less than 90 minutes from the time you said it wouldn't make Tropical Storm strength it did so take off the caps and quit making assumptions you have no clue about. Geez you use to be able to find good information on this blog without having to weed though all the idiotic comments.
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST. BONNIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST ON
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BONNIE IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON FRIDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
Viewing: 2251 - 2301
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