TD 3 growing more organized
Tropical Depression Three is steadily organizing, and appears poised to become a much stronger storm than was forecast. Water vapor satellite loops show that the upper level low to the west of TD 3 that has been bringing high levels of wind shear to the storm is now moving faster to the west than predicted. This faster motion has resulted in a reduction in wind shear over TD 3, to a moderate 10 knots. Satellite images of TD 3 show that the storm is taking advantage of the lower shear by developing several low-level spiral bands to the north and east of the center. However, the center of circulation is still exposed to view, and dry air is still getting injected into the core of the storm from the southwest. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have not increased in intensity this afternoon, and the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the core of the storm is still limited. TD 3 will need to build more intense thunderstorms near its center before significant intensification can occur. TD 3 is a small storm, and surface observations in the Bahamas do not show the circulation very well. An outer rain band of TD 3 is now visible on Miami long-range radar, and a flood watch has been issued for all of South Florida. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm at present, and have found top surface winds of 35 - 40 mph.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 3.
Track Forecast for TD 3
The storm is in a straightforward steering current environment, and TD 3 should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Sunday. This will bring the storm ashore over the Florida Keys or South Florida on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) foresee a track more to the north than the previous set of model runs. This increases the threat to the oil spill region, and I give a 40% chance that the oil spill region will see tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or higher this weekend. Oil recovery and relief well drilling operations should cease. If TD 3 makes a direct hit on the oil spill region as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds, it will likely drive a storm surge of 3 - 6 feet with high waves on top into the Louisiana marshlands, fouling a large area with oil. Oil would also penetrate into Lake Pontchartrain, which lies just two feet above sea level. However, the wave action of the storm will dilute the oil to some degree, which may limit the damage to the marshlands.
If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest 5 pm probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher:
Marathon 55%
Marco Island 43%
Miami 34%
New Orleans 33%
Galveston 13%
Intensity Forecast for TD 3
The primary detriment to development of TD 3 for the next three days will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to TD 3, it will bring wind shear of about 10 knots to the storm. This will allow for steady intensification of perhaps 20 mph per day, and TD 3 could be a hurricane by Sunday at that pace. However, if the upper-level low slows down a bit, relative to TD 3, more shear and dry air will affect the storm, potentially weakening it. None of the computer models is calling for TD 3 to strengthen into a hurricane, but if the shear continues at 10 knots, I expect TD 3 will become a hurricane. My low-confidence intensity forecast gives TD 3 a 40% chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of TD 3 being a hurricane at 2 pm Sunday at 15% with their 5pm advisory.
98L
An area of disturbed weather (98L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. This system is under a low amount of shear, 5 - 10 knots, and probably does not have enough time to organize into a tropical depression before making landfall along the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border on Friday.
Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Next update
I'll have an update in the morning. ABC World News Tonight will probably show a sound bite I did for them today, on their 6:30pm broadcast.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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live in South Florida.
(Straightline^projection using its last 2 positions. Take with HUGE grain of salt) [...more info...]"
642 sammywammybamy "Lol I live in Boca Raton, Florida. Doubt TD3 will make landfall here."
Got it in one. A straightline projection using a TropicalCyclone's last two reported center positions is less reliable for forecasting purposes than XTRAP*. The odds that a TC will not squiggle around in its travels closely approximates zero, so the odds of a straightline-projected landfall being accurate also nears zero.
About the only time its "fore"cast is somewhat reliable is less than 3hours before landfall... the timing of which we won't know until after landfall.
But it is interesting to compare with what the NHC reports as the TC's last heading and with the XTRAP projection.
* The eXTRAPolation model is not the same as projecting a straight line through the last two reported center positions. I believe it is the TC's various headings over the last 6to12hours averaged, then projected in a straight line from the TC's last reported center.
StormW? Weather456? SkyePony? Any of the others who know?
What the heck are the exact parameters defining XTRAP?
Read so many attempts at definitions here that I no longer remember the correct one.
(Don't know keywords that'll lead me to a glossary, so Google doesn't help).
ROFL
its not a tropical depression
Hey KatrinaBiloxiGirl,
Look with all due respect you should think about going into "Hurricane Mode" where you live.... We all know they seems to make that turn to the east right before landfall, and we will be on the worst side for the storm if it goes in to LA....
I have been here a long time and I just can't see anything stopping this from being a High end Cat1 maybe a Low end Cat2 at landfall....
So I just say be ready just in case..... I know I have been getting ready for 3 days now just to beat the rush of folks getting Gas, Batteries and can Goods....
We really never know where Bonnie will end up at the 2nd landfall....
Taco :o)
This is an official NOAA document...
Probably not.
The mayor said that for now, transportation would be running as usual. Anything is subject to change, though.
And please, get spell-check, might make you sound a bit more intelligent. (troical was a nice word you used earlier)
nop i dont need them you need need glasses
You're opinion has been duly noted.....and obviously disagreed with.....so how about pulling the plug.
No tomorrow will be a normal day unless unexpected strengthening happens tonight. Repeat tomorrow is no excuse for people in Miami to call in a snow/hurricane day.
u could be correct. Too far out to forecast accurately though.
well said
I'm pretty sure they found winds sustained to more than 40mph.
Not exactly.
yup
but why you where gone
000
URNT12 KNHC 222240
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032010
A. 22/22:26:10Z
B. 22 deg 45 min N
075 deg 35 min W
C. NA
D. 32 kt
E. 094 deg 29 nm
F. 164 deg 34 kt
G. 091 deg 25 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 25 C / 214 m
J. 25 C / 221 m
K. 22 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 0 nm
P. AF306 02BBA INVEST OB 21
MAX FL WIND 43 KT E QUAD 21:04:20Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
Waiting for a Updated ATCF Packet 00Z
The vortex was 43kt at flight level...which would support a 35kt intensity.
Viewing: 1301 - 1351
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