TD 3 growing more organized
Tropical Depression Three is steadily organizing, and appears poised to become a much stronger storm than was forecast. Water vapor satellite loops show that the upper level low to the west of TD 3 that has been bringing high levels of wind shear to the storm is now moving faster to the west than predicted. This faster motion has resulted in a reduction in wind shear over TD 3, to a moderate 10 knots. Satellite images of TD 3 show that the storm is taking advantage of the lower shear by developing several low-level spiral bands to the north and east of the center. However, the center of circulation is still exposed to view, and dry air is still getting injected into the core of the storm from the southwest. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have not increased in intensity this afternoon, and the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the core of the storm is still limited. TD 3 will need to build more intense thunderstorms near its center before significant intensification can occur. TD 3 is a small storm, and surface observations in the Bahamas do not show the circulation very well. An outer rain band of TD 3 is now visible on Miami long-range radar, and a flood watch has been issued for all of South Florida. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm at present, and have found top surface winds of 35 - 40 mph.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 3.
Track Forecast for TD 3
The storm is in a straightforward steering current environment, and TD 3 should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Sunday. This will bring the storm ashore over the Florida Keys or South Florida on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) foresee a track more to the north than the previous set of model runs. This increases the threat to the oil spill region, and I give a 40% chance that the oil spill region will see tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or higher this weekend. Oil recovery and relief well drilling operations should cease. If TD 3 makes a direct hit on the oil spill region as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds, it will likely drive a storm surge of 3 - 6 feet with high waves on top into the Louisiana marshlands, fouling a large area with oil. Oil would also penetrate into Lake Pontchartrain, which lies just two feet above sea level. However, the wave action of the storm will dilute the oil to some degree, which may limit the damage to the marshlands.
If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest 5 pm probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher:
Marathon 55%
Marco Island 43%
Miami 34%
New Orleans 33%
Galveston 13%
Intensity Forecast for TD 3
The primary detriment to development of TD 3 for the next three days will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to TD 3, it will bring wind shear of about 10 knots to the storm. This will allow for steady intensification of perhaps 20 mph per day, and TD 3 could be a hurricane by Sunday at that pace. However, if the upper-level low slows down a bit, relative to TD 3, more shear and dry air will affect the storm, potentially weakening it. None of the computer models is calling for TD 3 to strengthen into a hurricane, but if the shear continues at 10 knots, I expect TD 3 will become a hurricane. My low-confidence intensity forecast gives TD 3 a 40% chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of TD 3 being a hurricane at 2 pm Sunday at 15% with their 5pm advisory.
98L
An area of disturbed weather (98L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. This system is under a low amount of shear, 5 - 10 knots, and probably does not have enough time to organize into a tropical depression before making landfall along the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border on Friday.
Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Next update
I'll have an update in the morning. ABC World News Tonight will probably show a sound bite I did for them today, on their 6:30pm broadcast.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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A. 23/0600Z, 1200Z (2 am, 8 am EDT)
B. AFXXX 0403A CYCLONE
C. 23/0300Z
D. 24.5.0N 78.5.0W
Miami, Composite Reflectivity Range 124 NMI
MARK
23.1N/75.7W
In SE TX Orange County. BEAUMONT/PT ARTHUR area.
It's a 40 mph Tropical Storm near the Bahama's right now and
atleast a week away with alot of forecast uncertainty.
My question is how much additionalTax money is the over reaction
costing the Tax payers again? State of emergency's cost a great
deal ...not to criticize but it seems far to early and the storm may
end up in texas. The forecast accuracy is not good past 72 hours.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE 18:00UTC 22July2010
UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates
Current Conditions (from TPC) :
Latitude : 22:15:42 N
Longitude : 75:48:12 W
Intensity (MSLP) : 1009.0 hPa
Max Pot Int (MPI,from Emanuel) : 908.2 hPa
MPI differential (MSLP-MPI) : 100.8 hPa
CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 5.9 m/s
Direction : 192.2 deg
Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current
Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential
Forecast Interval : 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
F F F F
Legend : VF-Very Favorable F-Favorable N-Neutral
U-Unfavorable VU-Very Unfavorable
-- Mean Intensity Trend (negative indicates TC deepening) --
6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
VF <-3.0mb/ 6hr <-6.0mb/12hr <-9.0mb/18hr <-12.0mb/24hr
F -3.0 - -1.0 -6.0 - -2.0 -9.0 - -3.0 -12.0 - -4.0
N -1.0 - +1.0 -2.0 - +2.0 -3.0 - +3.0 -4.0 - +4.0
U +1.0 - +3.0 +2.0 - +6.0 +3.0 - +9.0 +4.0 -+12.0
VU >+3.0 >+6.0 >+9.0 >+12.0
Im out
moisture. Wind 25KNT
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 JUL 2010 Time : 221500 UTC
Lat : 22:53:22 N Lon : 75:39:01 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1003.0mb/ 39.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.3 2.3
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb
Center Temp : -18.9C Cloud Region Temp : -31.8C
Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.29 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.40 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 23:40:48 N Lon: 74:39:00 W
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Of course it's an over reaction. If Jindal doesn't jump the gun and something bad happens then he gets criticized for it. Any guy with Presidential aspirations such as Jindal must CYA at all times.
and somebody might listen to you
Hope it doesn't get too wild BAHA.
I'm setting up my blog to give little updates on whatever tropical systems pass through the Bahamas and TCI.
I did promise MIAHur09 I'd do something this year.... lol
ture but 98L dos looks a little way better the are TS
The blog never had it to lose...
you been vary in accurate
Tom Moore, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Jul. 22, 2010 6:32 pm ET
Tropical Depression 3 has strengthened a bit and is now Tropical Storm Bonnie. Movement is to the northwest at 14 mph.
Tropical storm warnings remain is in effect for the Florida east coast from Golden Beach southward to the Florida Keys, and for the Florida west coast northward to Bonita Beach. The central and northwestern Bahamas are also under a tropical storm warning.
A tropical storm watch has been issued for the Florida east coast from Jupiter Inlet to Golden Beach, including Lake Okeechobee.
Tropical storm conditions are expected over the central and northwest Bahamas overnight and Friday. South Florida and the Keys should experience heavy rain and gusty winds on Friday. Rainfall amounts could exceed 5 inches in parts of southern Florida and the Bahamas.
Impacts on the oil spill in the northern Gulf of Mexico could begin Friday night and should reach their peak Saturday through early Sunday. Squalls with heavy rain and gusty winds and waves of 6-10 feet may develop by late Saturday and Saturday night.
A tropical low pressure system is getter better organized in the Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Thunderstorms continue to develop around the broad area of low pressure as it moves off toward the west between 10 and 15 mph. There is a window of opportunity for this system to develop into a tropical depression before it moves onto the central Mexico coast over the next 24-36 hours.
Heavy rain, flooding and mud slides are possible in central Mexico as the low moves through tonight and Friday.
Typhoon Chanthu made landfall in southern China near Zhanjiang early Thursday morning EDT. Winds were estimated to be near 85 mph as the typhoon moved on shore. The winds should quickly diminish now that the center is on land. Heavy rain and flooding are the main concerns in southern China and northern Vietnam as Chanthu moves farther inland.
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