TD 3 growing more organized
Tropical Depression Three is steadily organizing, and appears poised to become a much stronger storm than was forecast. Water vapor satellite loops show that the upper level low to the west of TD 3 that has been bringing high levels of wind shear to the storm is now moving faster to the west than predicted. This faster motion has resulted in a reduction in wind shear over TD 3, to a moderate 10 knots. Satellite images of TD 3 show that the storm is taking advantage of the lower shear by developing several low-level spiral bands to the north and east of the center. However, the center of circulation is still exposed to view, and dry air is still getting injected into the core of the storm from the southwest. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have not increased in intensity this afternoon, and the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the core of the storm is still limited. TD 3 will need to build more intense thunderstorms near its center before significant intensification can occur. TD 3 is a small storm, and surface observations in the Bahamas do not show the circulation very well. An outer rain band of TD 3 is now visible on Miami long-range radar, and a flood watch has been issued for all of South Florida. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm at present, and have found top surface winds of 35 - 40 mph.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 3.
Track Forecast for TD 3
The storm is in a straightforward steering current environment, and TD 3 should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Sunday. This will bring the storm ashore over the Florida Keys or South Florida on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) foresee a track more to the north than the previous set of model runs. This increases the threat to the oil spill region, and I give a 40% chance that the oil spill region will see tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or higher this weekend. Oil recovery and relief well drilling operations should cease. If TD 3 makes a direct hit on the oil spill region as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds, it will likely drive a storm surge of 3 - 6 feet with high waves on top into the Louisiana marshlands, fouling a large area with oil. Oil would also penetrate into Lake Pontchartrain, which lies just two feet above sea level. However, the wave action of the storm will dilute the oil to some degree, which may limit the damage to the marshlands.
If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest 5 pm probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher:
Marathon 55%
Marco Island 43%
Miami 34%
New Orleans 33%
Galveston 13%
Intensity Forecast for TD 3
The primary detriment to development of TD 3 for the next three days will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to TD 3, it will bring wind shear of about 10 knots to the storm. This will allow for steady intensification of perhaps 20 mph per day, and TD 3 could be a hurricane by Sunday at that pace. However, if the upper-level low slows down a bit, relative to TD 3, more shear and dry air will affect the storm, potentially weakening it. None of the computer models is calling for TD 3 to strengthen into a hurricane, but if the shear continues at 10 knots, I expect TD 3 will become a hurricane. My low-confidence intensity forecast gives TD 3 a 40% chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of TD 3 being a hurricane at 2 pm Sunday at 15% with their 5pm advisory.
98L
An area of disturbed weather (98L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. This system is under a low amount of shear, 5 - 10 knots, and probably does not have enough time to organize into a tropical depression before making landfall along the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border on Friday.
Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Next update
I'll have an update in the morning. ABC World News Tonight will probably show a sound bite I did for them today, on their 6:30pm broadcast.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Yes, I can 100% guarantee you that one day Bonnie will be RIP. Something will kill it. You can take it to the bank.
How is 30 mph winds and 2-4 inches of rain scary! You get that in a afternoon thunderstorms LMAO!! Over dramatic...!!!
"Are you watching your local news? That's all they are talking about now.
I'm in Broward and they are saying 25-35 mph winds w/ 2" - 4" of rain."
Oooh that's scary.
Jeez, pilotguy1, wasn't saying it was scary, just responding to someone asking if they would be getting tropic storm winds in Boca....
Gave them the forecast for where I live, south of Boca as a point of reference.
we do and may be MX dos
If Bonnie gets that far west, it's possible she could remain a tropical storm, but it's also possible she could degenerate back into an open wave. Either way, gusty winds and heavy rains would be likely wherever she comes ashore.
OK. Local ch 12 guy is about to blow a gasket that the models are taking this strait into a ridge of high pressure says they should shift left. Who knows. But at least all the locals said we are in the cone and need to pay attention. Just in case. Havn't heard that from anyone else today.
This post has been made by somebody who knows NOTHING about SAFETY and cares NOTHING about safety. The poster obviously understands NOTHING about offshore deepwater safety. We have already seen the Beyond Pathetic consequences of such bravado and macho thinking.
Thank you. I am perfectly in line with the NHC.
THis blog has been the same since it began. There are just more "wishcasters" especially when it comes to FL. I haven't posted in years just lurked. I only recognize a few posters that were here 4 or 5 years ago. Most of the original posters are gone or don't bother posting anymore.
I agree... I got what you were throwing out there. There should be a sarcasm font...
This blog has gotten pretty rediculous. I'm not a frequent poster, but an often reader. Everyone has to beat each other to the punch. Everyone wants to be first to get it right.
what the heck that dos not mean a dran thing it still affecting MX so i care for it and so dos mx life are at risk there from flooding
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #40
TROPICAL STORM CHANTHU (T1003)
6:00 AM JST July 23 2010
============================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Overland South China
At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Chanthu (994 hPa) located at 22.6N 108.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 12 knots.
Dvorak Intensity:
Gale Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 23.3N 106.6E - Tropical Depression
Home caster !
when are the hurricane hunters doing another run into the center? Anyone have the life tracker?
YEs, the Flacasters are haters
north-caster..... cfla caster.... francis & jeanne brings back bad memories caster.... erin is going to get ya caster
I DO!!!
and I
Where do you live homeless?
I'm thinking Monroe County may be at risk as well.
Agreed. Quite a few users (not going to name them) are making snarky remarks, and it's more annoying than it is humorous.
.."What happened to yer other ones,,and where did you get the fresh Ones ?"..
under a nice waterfront bridge located next to a canal...jk
I was in Andrew as a little kid. We were in the house as it was ripped to shreds around us. If you come here to make decisions about your family, you are in the wrong place.
yes there may be but you no what life are at risk overe there so i do care for 98L
The worst trajectory for the spill. :(
* ARLENE : Tropical Storm : June 8 - June 12
* BRET : Tropical Storm : June 28 - June 30
* CINDY : Tropical Storm : July 3 - July 6
****Upgraded to Cat 1 Post Season)
* DENNIS : Hurricane (Category 4) : July 4 - July 11
* EMILY : Hurricane (Category 4) : July 10 - July 21
* FRANKLIN : Tropical Storm : July 21 - July 29
* GERT : Tropical Storm : July 23 - July 25
* HARVEY : Tropical Storm : August 2 - August 8
* IRENE : Hurricane (Category 2) : August 4 - August 18
* ten : Tropical Depression : August 13 - August 14
* JOSE : Tropical Storm : August 22 - August 23
* KATRINA : Hurricane (Category 5) : August 24 - August 30
* LEE : Tropical Storm : August 28 - September 2
* MARIA : Hurricane (Category 1) : September 2 - September 10
* NATE : Hurricane (Category 1) : September 5 - September 15
* OPHELIA : Hurricane (Category 1) : September 6 - September 18
* PHILIPPE : Hurricane (Category 1) : September 17 - September 24
* RITA : Hurricane (Category 5) : September 18 - September 25
* nineteen : Tropical Depression : September 20 - October 2
* STAN : Hurricane (Category 1) : October 1 - October 5
* TAMMY : Tropical Storm : October 5 - October 6
* twenty-two : Subtropical Depression : October 9 - October 12
* VINCE : Hurricane (Category 1) : October 9 - October 11
* WILMA : Hurricane (Category 5) : October 15 - October 25
* ALPHA : Tropical Storm : October 22 - October 24
* BETA : Hurricane (Category 3) : October 26 - October 31
* GAMMA : Tropical Storm : November 14 - November 21
* DELTA : Tropical Storm : November 23 - November 28
* EPSILON : Tropical Storm : November 29 -
They certainly are considering they're presently under Tropical Storm Warnings.
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