Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting NCHurricane2009:
I can't believe the wave near the Antilles got an upgrade to 20%. Whatever. It is getting messed up by the upper low to its north. While surface pressure have fallen and there were concetrated storm clouds earlier today, this is not the case anymore as it gets more disrupted by the upper low tonight. They should have kept that at 10%

Now the wave S of Jamaica, that's getting better organized and is in a great environment. That should have been 30%, and it looks to become Invest 97L IMO.

falling surface pressures and consolidation of convection north of the islands are very good reasons to upgrade an AOI to 20%

right now our CV AOI need to have a yellow circle as well

Quoting CybrTeddy:


My bad didn't read that last part. Usually when they hit 20% they declare invest.. IMO 97L and 98L before tomorrow ends.

Maybe they are getting ready to delcare 97L (S of Jamaica) and it takes time to prep after an upgrade to 20%. IMO, I wouldn't bet in Vegas right now that the wave near the Antilles would be 98L in the next day or two with the upper low disrupting it quiet a bit.

who

Quoting Hurricanes101:


falling surface pressures and consolidation of convection north of the islands are very good reasons to upgrade an AOI to 20%

yeah, plus convection is actually slowly increasing


While the one in the Caribbean is fading a little

the wave near the islands to me is better organized overall than the one in the central caribbean

Quoting Hurricanes101:
the wave near the islands to me is better organized overall than the one in the central caribbean

Both may have trouble getting going because of how close they are. Yes they are 2 seperate spins but, they are very close when looking at a spin in the atmosphere. Both will not be able to exist. One will have to become the dominate feature and that will take some time to figure out and it might not ever happen completely.

Quoting JLPR2:


yeah, plus convection is actually slowly increasing


While the one in the Caribbean is fading a little

IMO, the Antilles wave looked more organized earlier today than it does now, it was looking like it was getting closer to the upper low tonight, which made it less organized. I am thinking that it may no longer have further pressure falls if the convection gets less organized. Down the road while approaching the Bahamas, the upper low should have lifted out to the north, then I think it would develop there.

the main axis for the wave in the Central Caribbean is further west than the convection

I think the 2 systems are far enough apart that they may not inhibit one another

Quoting Hurricanes101:
the main axis for the wave in the Central Caribbean is over near Nicaragua, so it is further west than the convection

I think the 2 systems are far enough apart that they may not inhibit one another

Maybe far enough apart......but every time that i can remember when we see systems this close either one takes over completely or neither will ever get going.

Also, most systems further to the west usually will create Shear over the System to its East.

Quoting Hurricanes101:
the wave near the islands to me is better organized overall than the one in the central caribbean

I was looking at the images in post 1807, the wave near the Antilles looks like its struggling to develop organizing, curved storm bands while the upper low to its northwest is messing up the cloud pattern.

The one near Jamaica, I can almost see a low pressure center just west-southwest of the island the way the convection is organizing. There's a nice curved band south of Haiti, one east of Nicaragua, and a few more very thin ones about the "center" in light blue colors southwest of Jamaica.

Leeward Islands convectioincreasing
now nice i;m used Enhanced Infrared Satellite;update real fast

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-avn.html

Looking at this animation, the Antilles wave was pulsing down in convection, but over the last few frames, I see what you guys are saying about its convection increasing again. I think the wave will have even more convection, but I think this time (unlike earlier today) it will become disorganized by southwesterly shear produced by the upper low.

Quoting NCHurricane2009:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash- avn.html

Looking at this animation, the Antilles wave was pulsing down in convection, but over the last few frames, I see what you guys are saying about its convection increasing again. I think the wave will have even more convection, but I think this time (unlike earlier today) it will become disorganized by southwesterly shear produced by the upper low.

What's most concerning to me about this particular wave is that, although conditions are obviously not favorable for development in the near-term, they do appear to be rather favorable in about four days as the system nears the Bahamas, then Florida and the Gulf.

Quoting xcool:
Leeward Islands convectioincreasing
now nice i;m used Enhanced Infrared Satellite;update real fast

agree here too starting to gain alot of convection we migh see nice red ball in a couple of hours looks like so far it doing what the cmc was showing on the last and if the cmc plays when and not if this gets around the bahamas tyhis could intensify rather quickly this could be 97l first imo and maybe during the night hours

HUm....just looked at all the major models as i am a believer in models, but there is not much concensus on much of anything developing with the major models.

Quoting KoritheMan:


What's most concerning to me about this particular wave is that, although conditions are obviously not favorable for development in the near-term, they do appear to be rather favorable in about four days as the system nears the Bahamas, then Florida and the Gulf.

Yeah I agree with that, that was what I was sort of feeling I was getting with this wave in post 1815. The ULL near the wave I see and also hear from posts is supposed to be getting NW and away from the wave, and the shear would reduce.

Is there supposed to be a great anticyclone over the wave when it gets to the Bahamas? Is that what is making things look scary to you with this wave when it gets there?

7544 .ECMWF come soon

i think 97l and 98l imo

Quoting TampaSpin:
HUm....just looked at all the major models as i am a believer in models, but there is not much concensus on much of anything developing with the major models.

dude i got my wishcast hat out and everything and you go and talk about the models and all

ngp jumps on the cmc wagon brings it to fla also Link

Quoting 7544:


agree here too starting to gain alot of convection we migh see nice red ball in a couple of hours looks like so far it doing what the cmc was showing on the last and if the cmc plays when and not if this gets around the bahamas tyhis could intensify rather quickly this could be 97l first imo and maybe during the night hours

Ya the CmC is about the only model that develops much of anything and even it is very weak.....I just don't think neither will get going because of how close they are unless one becomes the more dominate feature.

Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Yeah I agree with that, that was what I was sort of feeling I was getting with this wave in post 1815. The ULL near the wave I see and also hear from posts is supposed to be getting NW and away from the wave, and the shear would reduce.

Is there supposed to be a great anticyclone over the wave when it gets to the Bahamas? Is that what is making things look scary to you with this wave when it gets there?

0z GFS develops an anticyclone across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico, yes.

Also, I forgot to add in my previous post, the reason I feel it has a fair shot at ultimately developing. The upper low will allow for daily generation of convection, albeit sheared and disorganized. This should be enough to allow the wave to thrive until it reaches a more favorable upper wind environment in about 84-96 hours.

based on conditions ahead, the wave by the Antilles is the bigger threat to develop, hence why nhc set up a possible recon mission for it Tuesday

yeap

Quoting Hurricanes101:
based on conditions ahead, the wave by the Antilles is the bigger threat to develop, hence why nhc set up a possible recon mission for it Tuesday

Oh, did they? Interesting.

Quoting KoritheMan:


Oh, did they? Interesting.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 181515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SUN 18 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-048

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 21.0N 71.5W AT 20/1800Z. BEGIN
6-HRLY FIXES AT 21/0600Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
SEF

KoritheMan/recon mission yep

Quoting 7544:


agree here too starting to gain alot of convection we migh see nice red ball in a couple of hours looks like so far it doing what the cmc was showing on the last and if the cmc plays when and not if this gets around the bahamas tyhis could intensify rather quickly this could be 97l first imo and maybe during the night hours

I think the only reason the wave near the Antilles is going through an increase in convection right now is because of upper divergence SE of the upper low center. But, that same upper low which is increasing its convection looks like it'll shear the wave, making the new conveciton get disorganized.

I know the wave S of Jamaica doesn't have as much convection right now, but if you look at the image in post 1807, if you imagined a low pressure center west-southwest of Jamaica (which is not officially in existence right now in any surface analsyses), you can almost see lots of circular bands in the clouds around the "center." Just my opinion, I am looking for cloud banding pattern than convection increase to see which system is more organized.

Quoting TampaSpin:


Ya the CmC is about the only model that develops much of anything and even it is very weak.....I just don't think neither will get going because of how close they are unless one becomes the more dominate feature.

tampa how are you thanks for your weather input roflmao

hmm

Quoting Hurricanes101:


000
NOUS42 KNHC 181515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SUN 18 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-048

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 21.0N 71.5W AT 20/1800Z. BEGIN
6-HRLY FIXES AT 21/0600Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
SEF

That's proactive. I am seeing right now today (Monday), this wave can't get organized due to shear from the nearby ULL to its NW. I guess the NHC sees shear reducing beginning on Tuesday. Depending on how disorganized the wave gets from the shear on Monday, I have a feeling they might end up cancelling Tuesday's, and fly in on Wednesday.

Surface Winds