Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting StormW:


Thanks MH09.

Anyone can answer this...what do you notice about the sst's from 15-17N off the African coast and westward into the Atlantic?

A dip south, then NW in high temps?

Quoting reedzone:


A dip south, then NW in high temps?

Yeah I was about to say the same thing.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
JFV's gone.. he'll be back. That was his second handle of the day.

he's still here

.

Notice the ridge retreated east on the Euro leaving the Northern Gulf at risk if any storm were to form...

Quoting StormW:


Ok Reed, In your opinion, from those points south, still pretty much above normal?

Still high temps, yes.. I believe they are above normal, I think.

OMG....this blog is just ridiculous.

I'm out 4 now..

Quoting IKE:


They need to start charging a few to get on here. They need to do something to permanently stop him.

Pay per post simple as that 20 posts for $1, 100 posts for $5 ,price can vary of course, bloggers who get "+" can get free posts, I rarely post anyways but it might help get the good info out there from a blogger.

once again brownville texas slams 1 of ikes comments.Its getting old .people are emailing me and stating the same thing a lot of people agree your as annoying as the bolero toddler who is not man of enough to speak english to majority who do not know spanis.ike is right and so are some of the other knowledgable bloggers its dead right now.i really believeif God almighty came on this blog and said 0% chance of tropical formation you would argue with him and tell him he is wrong.Apologize to the rest of the bloggers but some of these kids need to get off these computers and get a life.

this is too much
you have some big issues in the brain dept.
iam sorry

Quoting StormW:


Not picking on you, but just wanted to see if anyone answers.

Ok, why are they still pretty warm?

Ridging?

Storm W the reason we ask is because we value you opinion.Appreciate your thoughts.

Quoting StormW:


No.

Negative NAO, weaker trades?

Quoting StormW:


Not picking on you, but just wanted to see if anyone answers.

Ok, why are they still pretty warm?

It's ok, I respect you

Umm, more heat in the atmosphere? We only had Alex, really hasn't cooled the Caribbean waters much, and the GOM continues to stay dry which creates more sunshine, more heat into the waters.

The nao will help to reduce the sal.
In that scenario it will aid in increasing the SSTs off Africa?
Oh and the weakening of the ridge.

Quoting StormW:


Not picking on you, but just wanted to see if anyone answers.

Ok, why are they still pretty warm?

StormW...PLEASE do not leave!

Now for my guess...weak trade winds?

Quoting FLdewey:
Oh jeez now that drama opens the door to 4 hours of "Storm please don't go" posts. Time to go fire up the grill.

I have told him before don't do this... He is way to sensitive. Storm seems to think being here is some sort of job he does not like. I am here to read about weather and the tropics... and wish others would follow the rules. Stay on topic...

Quoting reedzone:
Enjoy this quiet period because things will be changing by the end of the month into August. We are officially in a La Nina year and I believe it has pretty much shut the doors for storm development in the Eastern Pacific, excluding a few storms. The pattern is becoming more favorable in the Atlantic side, SST are boiling in the GOM over 9o degrees, we have major problems starting around August. The track pattern has been west as a nice bold high pressure has been sitting around the southern states, but models indication that is changing as well. A high in the Atlantic spreading WSW towards the southeastern USA should steer anything from the east, westward, this should allow storms to make it past 50-60W with no problem. The East Coast to the GOM coastline is in danger as the troughs swing by, depending on timing, they will either recurve storms away from land WEST of Bermuda like Bill in 2009, recurve storms going up the East Coast like Floyd in 1999, which was a La Nina year, or the trough is weak enough as a high builds in back of it to steer the storms north at some point, then westward, kind of like Frances in 2004. La Nina years have tendency to save us and recurve storms, meaning stronger troughs, while there's no indication of that, I am looking for some storms to recurve. 1995 is a prime example of storm recurvatures, which btw was also a La Nina year. So we really don't know what will happen, does the slowness of July lower my numbers? Absolute NOT! People who lower their predictions because of a slow month which is NORMAL for it to be this way, is foolish. So we'll see what happens..

Dude... Post the graph that shows avg. years usually have very little b4 August. I don't think everyone has seen it yet.. LOL

Don't go Storm W. I am a lurker who has been on here for years and your the posts I find the most reasonably and best suited especially when we do have track for storms. Just take a breather and continue your good work on this blog:)

A lil experience is like a lil War

..a Lot of Experience is the wisdom learned from it.

Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Dude... Post the graph that shows avg. years usually have very little b4 August. I don't think everyone has seen it yet.. LOL

Been posted by DestinJeff many times this weekend but people still assume a slow season is the right idea.. whatever. lol

Bolero:

Thanks to people like you, us Hispanics have such a bad reputation in this country.

But it gets kinda old and redundant when I post data for folks that indicate certain things, and folks don't look closely at the info.

As a newbie, I hope you don't leave. But I would like to point out that the strictly posting of data without explanation makes things really difficult on us newbies.

Case in point: "....and the behavior of the MJO in the past 2 months. And if it does, it may be short lived, and the MJO could jump back to the Octants in our area."

People like me go, "Huh, MJO? Octants? What is that all? I don't mean to call you out specifically. Every day, I look for meaningful posts and I could count on my hand the number of times that I get an explanation as to a map or graphic or data that is posted to go along with the said data.

So now you got ppl who just post a link to a map with no narrative, no explanation and fifty people responding, Wow! Look at all those pretty colors and numbers. A lot of us and including those that have been here for a while are left to make conclusions, often WRONG conclusions because they are left to their own devices to come up with an explanation for the data or simple maps that are posted.

And, I realize Storm that you've done a great job to explain acronyms and such on your board and you are certainly the exception and have offered us Florida natives up to your place for better learning. However, I think if the knowledgeable ones around here would take just a moment or two and explain the data or maps that they are posting, it would go a long way in having the community avoid having 50 different interpretations of the data and the poster from saying, "Why don't you look at the data?"

Maybe somebody with time on their hands could develop a simple powerpoint as to explaining the maps and data formats that are out there?

Trust me, Storm. There are several impressionable people out here that are getting several incorrect interpretatons of the data and maps from other posters simply because the original poster just gives a link and no corresponding narrative.

Respectfully,
LCB (Bradenton, FL)

I'm so sad cause storm might leave. Im totally lost for words. Now what am I going to do. Where's Levi?

Quoting reedzone:


Been posted by DestinJeff many times this weekend but people still assume a slow season is the right idea.. whatever. lol

I know, I was just kidding... What few in here don't realize is that Mother Nature is probably just winding up for the "pitch." I've said it before, IMHO come mid Sept., the naysayers in here will be screaming UNCLE!

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Negative NAO, weaker trades?

I'm with you MH. Oh and hello everyone.

Quoting StormW:


No...the SAL has not been heavy enough to cool down the sst's as it did in 2006. Hasn't been that thick.

What do you see?


Yes, it will effect some of the incipient waves, or even slow their development, but it wont' last

Smart thinkin' there Storm. It never occurred to me that SAL would have such a big effect in cooling SSTs.

Quoting StormW:


No...the SAL has not been heavy enough to cool down the sst's as it did in 2006. Hasn't been that thick.

What do you see?



Yes, it will effect some of the incipient waves, or even slow their development, but it wont' last

Interesting, I see it now.. Thanks :)

Quoting homelesswanderer:


I'm with you MH. Oh and hello everyone.

Nevermind.

The U.S. Mainland is probably going to have a hurricane strike this year partly because of lower sunspot activity!

Quoting StormW:


It's not even smart thinking...it's called analysis in meteorology.

Yep, makes sense.

Quoting homelesswanderer:


Nevermind.

Hi Homeless - I see the smiley faces are back... :)

Quoting BradentonBrew:
But it gets kinda old and redundant when I post data for folks that indicate certain things, and folks don't look closely at the info.

As a newbie, I hope you don't leave. But I would like to point out that the strictly posting of data without explanation makes things really difficult on us newbies.

Case in point: "....and the behavior of the MJO in the past 2 months. And if it does, it may be short lived, and the MJO could jump back to the Octants in our area."

People like me go, "Huh, MJO? Octants? What is that all? I don't mean to call you out specifically. Every day, I look for meaningful posts and I could count on my hand the number of times that I get an explanation as to a map or graphic or data that is posted to go along with the said data.

So now you got ppl who just post a link to a map with no narrative, no explanation and fifty people responding, Wow! Look at all those pretty colors and numbers. A lot of us and including those that have been here for a while are left to make conclusions, often WRONG conclusions because they are left to their own devices to come up with an explanation for the data or simple maps that are posted.

And, I realize Storm that you've done a great job to explain acronyms and such on your board and you are certainly the exception and have offered us Florida natives up to your place for better learning. However, I think if the knowledgeable ones around here would take just a moment or two and explain the data or maps that they are posting, it would go a long way in having the community avoid having 50 different interpretations of the data and the poster from saying, "Why don't you look at the data?"

Maybe somebody with time on their hands could develop a simple powerpoint as to explaining the maps and data formats that are out there?

Trust me, Storm. There are several impressionable people out here that are getting several incorrect interpretatons of the data and maps from other posters simply because the original poster just gives a link and no corresponding narrative.

Respectfully,
LCB (Bradenton, FL)

Thats why I find myself going back to Storms blog and looking at his list of NAOs,SSTs,
Acronyms.