Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
the blog will implode

Maybe I'll be wrong again.

Quoting StormW:
MSLP Means for SEP and AUG:

SEP 1020mb
img src="" alt="" />

AUG 1023mb
img src="" alt="" />

Impressive. Caribbean in September = 1011mb, not good.

He'll be gone soon.

Just wait a few more minutes and dont feed him!

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
In the lower levels the area over the Antilles is most impressive displaying the strongest 925mb vorticity. Satellite presentation-wise I would say that that wave is also the most organized.

And the highest vort is perfectly aligned with the Anticlone over it, arrg, if we only had quickscat. T_T

What does that mean Storm W?If it is sterring pattern it does not matter if no storms develop.Right?

Quoting TexasHurricane:
since it seems there will be little to no activity in July, I wonder how August and September will be...

July is certainly not over. The Fireworks are scheduled to begin soon!

would not be surprized to see a hurricane come out of the carribean
before this month is up. Upper Atmosphere conditions would suggest
Tropical Development very soon in that area.

Chaser Status Mode: Watch and Wait Impatiently. LOL

655...you need banning permanently.

Quoting Bolero:
Stupid TUTT's, stop forming, xxx xxxxxx! We need pritine conditions out there. :0. I cannot wait until the first major of the year forms, SERIOUSLY.

and i will track it right to your front door

We need some kind of moderator.

Quoting TropicalNonsense:


July is certainly not over. The Fireworks are scheduled to begin soon!

would not be surprized to see a hurricane come out of the carribean
before this month is up. Upper Atmosphere conditions would suggest
Tropical Development very soon in that area.

Chaser Status Mode: Watch and Wait Impatiently. LOL

yeah, patience is not one of my strong suits....Not saying I want a major to track, but something would be nice.

Enjoy this quiet period because things will be changing by the end of the month into August. We are officially in a La Nina year and I believe it has pretty much shut the doors for storm development in the Eastern Pacific, excluding a few storms. The pattern is becoming more favorable in the Atlantic side, SST are boiling in the GOM over 9o degrees, we have major problems starting around August. The track pattern has been west as a nice bold high pressure has been sitting around the southern states, but models indication that is changing as well. A high in the Atlantic spreading WSW towards the southeastern USA should steer anything from the east, westward, this should allow storms to make it past 50-60W with no problem. The East Coast to the GOM coastline is in danger as the troughs swing by, depending on timing, they will either recurve storms away from land WEST of Bermuda like Bill in 2009, recurve storms going up the East Coast like Floyd in 1999, which was a La Nina year, or the trough is weak enough as a high builds in back of it to steer the storms north at some point, then westward, kind of like Frances in 2004. La Nina years have tendency to save us and recurve storms, meaning stronger troughs, while there's no indication of that, I am looking for some storms to recurve. 1995 is a prime example of storm recurvatures, which btw was also a La Nina year. So we really don't know what will happen, does the slowness of July lower my numbers? Absolute NOT! People who lower their predictions because of a slow month which is NORMAL for it to be this way, is foolish. So we'll see what happens..

Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
No one answered my question so.. I'll be a pest and ask again >:) XD

Can someone point me to HPC's archives for Alex after the NHC stopped issuing advisories for it?

Right here I can find archives for storms from 1997-2009, and TD2 because it's the most recent storm, but it skips out on Alex. It's either right in front of my face and I don't notice or it's not there (I dunno why it wouldn't be), can someone please direct me?

Repost #3.. Really itchin' for that Alex archive..

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
We need some kind of moderator.

They need to start charging a few to get on here. They need to do something to permanently stop him.

Let the un-sub post.

Its going to make the legal case easier to prosecute.

and move on.

GFS 12z 60 hours.

:0)

Sorry this is latest on this site anyway.

Quoting spathy:
Keep!
With that profanity in that post you may not want to quote it.
Dont want to loose you!

i x'ed it out i already been a victim of that i have been trying real hard not to engage

Nice explanation Reedzone, Thanks. It's kind of scary to have all of those predicted storms jammed up into 12 weeks.

Quoting reedzone:
Enjoy this quiet period because things will be changing by the end of the month into August. We are officially in a La Nina year and I believe it has pretty much shut the doors for storm development in the Eastern Pacific, excluding a few storms. The pattern is becoming more favorable in the Atlantic side, SST are boiling in the GOM over 9o degrees, we have major problems starting around August. The track pattern has been west as a nice bold high pressure has been sitting around the southern states, but models indication that is changing as well. A high in the Atlantic spreading WSW towards the southeastern USA should steer anything from the east, westward, this should allow storms to make it past 50-60W with no problem. The East Coast to the GOM coastline is in danger as the troughs swing by, depending on timing, they will either recurve storms away from land WEST of Bermuda like Bill in 2009, recurve storms going up the East Coast like Floyd in 1999, which was a La Nina year, or the trough is weak enough as a high builds in back of it to steer the storms north at some point, then westward, kind of like Frances in 2004. La Nina years have tendency to save us and recurve storms, meaning stronger troughs, while there's no indication of that, I am looking for some storms to recurve. 1995 is a prime example of storm recurvatures, which btw was also a La Nina year. So we really don't know what will happen, does the slowness of July lower my numbers? Absolute NOT! People who lower their predictions because of a slow month which is NORMAL for it to be this way, is foolish. So we'll see what happens..

Similar to 1969, even though that was an El Nino season

18 storms is still very possible, once the season starts it will be crazy for about 10 weeks

Quoting LeeInNaplesFl:
Nice explanation Reedzone, Thanks. It's kind of scary to have all of those predicted storms jammed up into 12 weeks.

Just explaining the possible next pattern, StormW showed the maps earlier of where the highest and lowest pressures could be from August to September

Quoting Hurricanes101:


Similar to 1969, even though that was an El Nino season

18 storms is still very possible, once the season starts it will be crazy for about 10 weeks

My prediction remains unchanged from May .. 15-18 named storms, 9 or 10 hurricanes, 5 majors.

Quoting StormW:



Rant over.

StormW,
I hope you don't get too discouraged and leave. You are one of a handful of people here that I really put stock into whats said. It would be a loss to us all if you left.
Take it easy friend. Im sure there are lots of lurkers that feel this same way.

Not addressed at you, but in general...I've been thinking about maybe leaving Doc's blog.
Storm?????
Dont do that!!!!
Just remember the same thing happens to Doc M.

Here ya' go Storm:

Quoting StormW:


Not for a whole month...could go to months end.

Not addressed at you, but in general...I've been thinking about maybe leaving Doc's blog.

I continue to make posts (and not saying that I'm right all the time, or know it all, heck, I learned something from Drak last night on the Marsupial theory post). But it gets kinda old and redundant when I post data for folks that indicate certain things, and folks don't look closely at the info.

I don't know if some feel I just come here and post stuff, just to spout off or what. i stay here on Dr. Masters Blog to try and help provide educational info. My posts are based on my studying, knowledge and experience over the past 14 years. This is why Doc has me as one of the featured bloggers.

I posted yesterday, about 4-5 times on the MJO forecast map, pointing out it could happen, but unlikely because of the heat build up in the SST's in the MDR, and the behavior of the MJO in the past 2 months. And if it does, it may be short lived, and the MJO could jump back to the Octants in our area. I saw a sst map yesterday that showed SST's were not that cool off Africa. If someone has a good sst map for there for today, I'd appreciate if you could post it. Not sure what they look like today.

I could point out more factors that suggest we still have a very active season, as opposed to maybe one, possibly two right now which are the SAL and the TUTT, which isn't having too much of a negative effect...has some effect, but not too great at the moment...I could point out all this stuff, but I feel sometimes I'm wasting my time...not to be mistaken if folks like to debate, I don't mind a debate, but posting the same stuff over and over and over, etc, get pretty old.

Rant over.

several of the seasons mentioned as analog type seasons to 2010, had very little activity in June and July

1969 - 1st storm formed July 25th; 18 storms total
1998 - 1st storm formed July 27th; 14 storms total
2004 - 1st storm formed July 31st; 15 storms total


looks like 2010 is pretty much right on or even ahead of all 3 of those seasons; so far we have had Alex forming on June 25th and TD 2 forming July 7th. We have also had 3 other strong invests that were fairly close to TD status (90L, 92L, 95L)

Storm, I have been on WU for a few years (just reading the blog) and your information is a must read. I for one appreciate all of your info and look forward to your posts! Thanks for the hard work and keep it up.

Post 655....Enough with the the language. Never take the Lords name in vane!!!!!!!!!!

Quoting StormW:


Not for a whole month...could go to months end.

Not addressed at you, but in general...I've been thinking about maybe leaving Doc's blog.

I continue to make posts (and not saying that I'm right all the time, or know it all, heck, I learned something from Drak last night on the Marsupial theory post). But it gets kinda old and redundant when I post data for folks that indicate certain things, and folks don't look closely at the info.

I don't know if some feel I just come here and post stuff, just to spout off or what. I stay here on Dr. Masters Blog to try and help provide educational info. My posts are based on my studying, knowledge and experience over the past 14 years. This is why Doc has me as one of the featured bloggers.

I posted yesterday, about 4-5 times on the MJO forecast map, pointing out it could happen, but unlikely because of the heat build up in the SST's in the MDR, and the behavior of the MJO in the past 2 months. And if it does, it may be short lived, and the MJO could jump back to the Octants in our area. I saw a sst map yesterday that showed SST's were not that cool off Africa. If someone has a good sst map for there for today, I'd appreciate if you could post it. Not sure what they look like today.

I could point out more factors that suggest we still have a very active season, as opposed to maybe one, possibly two right now which are the SAL and the TUTT, which isn't having too much of a negative effect...has some effect, but not too great at the moment...I could point out all this stuff, but I feel sometimes I'm wasting my time...not to be mistaken if folks like to debate, I don't mind a debate, but posting the same stuff over and over and over, etc, get pretty old.

Rant over.

You are very respected by me and I think everyone here. If you leave it will be a big loss.

Please don't leave storm.....we do value your input. :)

JFV's gone.. he'll be back. That was his second handle of the day.