Category 2 Alex Makes Landfall on the Mexican Coast
Hi, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift.
1AM CDT Update
Alex is weakening as it moves inland As of the 1AM advisory, Alex's winds have slowed to 85 mph. Alex is at 24.1N, 98.2W which is 35 miles northwest of La Pesca, MX and 135 miles south-southwest of Brownsville, TX. Alex is moving west-southwest at 10 mph. Alex may be slowing down, but it's still producing a lot of rain. Radar-derived rainfall estimates shows that Alex is covering widespread areas with 0.5-0.8 inches of rain in the last hour. Over the past 24 hours, the Rio Grande at Brownsville has risen 10 feet, but it's still about 14 feet away from the flood stage of 27 feet.
9PM CDT
The center of Alex's eye has made landfall according to NHC. They state that 9PM CDT, Alex's center crossed the shoreline in the municipality of Soto La Marina, MX, which is 110 miles south of Brownsville. At the time of landfall, Alex had wind speeds of 105 mph, making it a Category 2 storm on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale
With wind speeds near 100 mph, Alex is nearing landfall on the Mexican coast. As of 8PM CDT, Alex is at 24.3N, 97.5W, 40 miles northeast of La Pesca, MX and 110 miles south of Brownsville. It is moving west at 10 mph, and the center of the eye should arrive onshore around 9PM CDT. Alex has a very large circulation, hurricane force winds extend 70 miles away from the the center, and tropical storm force winds are 205 miles away. A MADIS station located in South Padre Island, TX has reported wind gusts of 60 mph and sustained winds of 35-40 mph. We have a plot of that station's data here, and it looks like the wind speed sensor failed around 733PM CDT. Unfortunately, that's a common fate for weather stations near a landfalling storm.
One of the last eye penetrations of Alex occured at 640PM CDT, and they found an partially complete eye with a 12 mile radius. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb, a 2 mb drop since the 6PM update, and the maximum wind estimate was 94 mph using the microwave radiometer.
Fig. 1Base reflectivity from KBRO showing Alex's eye at 721PM CDT.
Threat from winds
Hurricane force winds are likely taking place along the northeast Mexican coast right now. 25 mph winds with stronger gusts are being reported in the Brownsville area. A tornado watch is currently in place for the south Texas coast. SPC shows there have been 5 tornado reports so far.
Threat from rain
Radar-derived rainfall estimates suggest that up to 9 inches of rain have fallen in some locations near Brownsville, TX. 5+ inches of rain has fallen over a widespread area in the Rio Grande valley. The NWS office in Brownsville is forecasting a total of 6-12 inches rain across the Valley, with 12-15 inch totals possible in isolated locations. Flooding similar to that caused by Dolly in 2008 is expected across south Texas.
Threat from coastal flooding
The NWS is predicting a 3-4 foot storm surge for the coast from Brownsville to Port Isabel, TX. They think the coastal flooding will be limited and not cause significant damage to property along the coast.
Next update
I'll try to edit this blog with updates as more information comes in tonight. Jeff should have a full posting tomorrow morning, and I'll likely have a post describing the flooding at my blog Thursday night.
Reader Comments
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OVERLAND
Old news...Time to watch for 95L.
hey
I heard on CNN yesterday that Alex could make a U turn after it has weakened and find it's way to the northern Gulf Coast.Any thoughts on this?
cnn said that? wow. pretty bold for them.
lol, i dont even know if some of you guys knew I had my blog back up since TD 1.
Yep been there lol
It's the Cerro de la Silla (link)
I'd be willing to bet that he beat Audrey's pressure of 946mb before landfall after the recon left. It's not hard to imagine that he got a couple millibars lower from 947.
hello waterwitch
yeah miss posting the big world
was tracking alex
Ya those dang models left me out to hang! LOL.....one thing i will never do again...is forecast a track out 5days out and stick to it was i did...LMAO....my mistake putting my guns that far out no matter what models there are agreeing with a solution that far out..Yes after the GFS moved my position moved as well.....but, i was left to hang......LOL
1 down, possible 15-19 more....I suspect we will see our first CV this month.
Alex in late June is Dolly in mid-July.
How many storms in the GOM you think we may have? More then the norm...(whatever amount this is)
Yes i agree it looks to me like weaknesses in the ridges seem to have less an effect on the systems
What has been puzzling forecasters is Alex's central pressure compared to winds and I do not think size is the only explanation since we have had bigger storms with no such differences. Just one millibar above category 4 Audrey.
Cape Verde.
Cape Verde in relation to Cape Verde Hurricanes
oh ok....thanks
I believe the overall lower than normal pressures across the SW Atlantic Basin had something to do with it as well. Then again Ike was also a Cat 2 at 944mb....both storms very like typhoons with their pressure/wind relationship and size. Alex formed in a very typhoon-like manner so it may not be so surprising to see such a relationship. With a pattern like this we will be seeing more large storms this year.
Hi Tim...Did you take a look at my link? Knowing you, I think you would feel the same.
For the steering pattern forecasted and hyperactive season most forecasters forsee, I would say about 3-5 storms passing through the GOM. I'm not aware of the norm.
Agree
There aren't many storms like Alex in the Atlantic.
The norm is around 1 storm per year with I believe 80% of all above-average seasons seeing 2 storms in the Gulf of Mexico.
Seems we have cold neutral conditions
probably so...Just for the first 2 weeks, the GFS is not showing much troughs in the upper westerlies.
If thats the average then I guess 2005 was just crazy.
2005 storms passing through the GOM - Arlene, Cindy, Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma
if you include the BOC you add 4 more (Bret, Gert, Jose and Stan)
Could it not have been from that fact he was so large.. he was basically landlocked in a strange way?
His outer bands were basically over land in about 300+ degree radius?
The chances of seeing larger storms on average this year are higher because pressures across the tropics will be lower than normal, resulting in more expanded wind fields of storms. The kind of pattern which produced Alex, very similar to how typhoons form in the Pacific or monsoonal depressions in the Indian Ocean, is also something which we are likely to see again, and that usually produces a fairly large cyclone.
Then it's off to make snowfall in Taos,NewMexico ;-D
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