Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting StormW:
HURRICANE ALEX SYNOPSIS JUNE 30, 2010 ISSUED 8:55 A.M. EDT

Storm....when is landfall "expected"? I mean, how much time does Alex have before the longwave trof affects it?

Quoting beeleeva:
Anyone along Galveston Bay-Seabrook area hearing of tidal flooding yet?? Winds appear to be up from Sailflow readings at Seabrook Sailing Club....Concerned about sailboats at SSC and HYC....

You mean a hurricane is coming and the boats have not been taken care of?
I would suggest you go tie any boat up as if a hurricane was coming with a 10' surge.
Being on the north side of the storm the Texas coast will get the most surge.

morning gang. Late start - all this rain is making me sleepy! So from what I can tell, Alex is slowing up a bit? That can't be good...never want to see one of these parked along the coast. Lots of dry air moving from the West - I'm guessing this will have an effect?

TWC is actually doing pretty good on their coverage... even they are mentioning the northward trend

Senior Chief, I am curious about something, if Alex continues on the current forecast path wont the low end up in the Pacific and if that happens wont it regenerate pretty quick?

at the current rate of strengthening this will be the steering shortly

Quoting StormW:


That's gonna be your indication. If he stalls...landfall will be a little tricky to time.

I should have worded that differently and actually went and changed my question..lol

How much time do you think Alex has before the trof will/can affect it?

Quoting DestinJeff:
1200 CIMSS: Alex going to have a hard time getting west with this set-up I think...

There has to be something at play that is basically forcing Alex to move towards the W/WNW instead of just plain N motion. With a set-up like that Alex is more likely to hit Texas or Louisiana instead of Mexico.

Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Sigh. Third advisory:



NHC predicted slowing in forward motion, but not the associated rapid strengthening.

But this was way before it really developed or hit the Yucatan. And it was forecast to be a strong TS so they were not off by much. This was also when the models had the track all over the place and they are pretty close.

Look at how much moisture Alex is excreting into the subtropical jet ahead of the cold front!

So StormW-is it your thought that Alex may ride the coast northernly?

on radar its moving nnw o-O

Lake Charles has Alex's remains merging with front.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010/

DISCUSSION...

OUTER SPIRAL RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ALEX WILL
SWEEP WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE WIDESPREAD RAINS
WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY...AS THE REMAINS OF ALEX MERGE WITH A MIDWEST COLD FRONT
WHICH STALLS ACROSS THE LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS

Quoting StormW:


That's gonna be your indication. If he stalls...landfall will be a little tricky to time.

Guessing it may be hard to say at this point but any best guesses on how much of a shift to the right a stall could produce given the potential new factor?

Quoting hurrkat05:
OZ is going to have to RELOCATE himself north if he is going to video live feed from ALEX...one thing in his favor is time at least 36 hours before things start to really explode..

Hopefully he has a steady structure to go to should the winds or surge be stronger than expected.

Quoting StormW:


Should know something by early this evening.

Thank you for your help....

Wild set up here in South Florida ULL to our East driving winds from the north

Plus Alex with its bands headed the opposite direction! Link

We are way over normal rain for the last 30 days here...as much 6-8 inches over already.
Link

Good luck Texas

looking at MIMIC, it's moving very slightly North of West...

Quoting StormW:


That's gonna be your indication. If he stalls...landfall will be a little tricky to time.

Maybe the mountains will "bounce" Alex's moisture back over the CONUS.

Wish I knew what this puppy was gonna do.

Quoting hurricanehanna:
looking at MIMIC, it's moving very slightly North of West...

When looking for motion MIMIC-TPW is nowhere as reliable as let's say satellite or radar.

Looking at radar worries me, the eye is going nowhere fast. An extremely heavy band is hammering the coast, the slower Alex moves the more rainfall that will drop.

Also, is an EWRC likely? It looks like an eyewall might be trying to form around the 8nm one at maybe 25-30nm. Could this stall the intensification trend until landfall?

Quoting hurrkat05:
jeff you are so right the trough on the west coast is going to take over alex..alex has 36 hours to move inland and then if he does move inland the mountainous terrain over mexico will stall alex progress even more..alex size is going to determine where he wants to go until the strong trough at 750mb begins to influence him..by that time alex could be a strong cat 2 hurricane..

I knew I should not have put those darn tomato plants in the grow yesterday! Seemed like a sure thing Alex was going to Mexico, well south of Texas. If Alex turns north I will take full responsibility, sorry folks. I can if yall want go rip the tomato plants out of the ground. Let me know.

Senior Chief, why is the pressure so low and the winds not coming down. The other day you said you felt like this system was more of a Typhoon than Hurricane can you explain if this has something to do with the winds not dropping?

Quoting DestinJeff:


true. I know that CIMSS map isn't like the "answer key" to steering, but sure does pique your interest. I always feel like landfall is the only thing that assures landfall in a particular location ... until then, so many things can influence track.

in Alex's case I think that stall back off teh coast of the Yucatan screwed up the timing of everything, not to mention the weak high pressure that is centered so far north to have significant influence.

I am no met.

Teh? LOL, J/k.

I agree. That stalling off the coast of the Yucatan messed timing up which then messed all of us up. A Mexico landfall still seems more likely, but my question is, why is it making landfall in Mexico opposed to moving towards the weakness?

ITS SHOCKING to me hat Alex has a 958mb pressure and the winds are only 80mph ...

is there any way we may get 2 planes out there at the same time today.... it takes forever to get from one fix to another and to get back to that NE quadrant

Causeway to spi scheduled to close at 10. My eta is 1010. Fingers crossed.

It's my understanding that because of the size of the storm it takes longer for the winds to catch up to the pressure (like Ike).. or am I totally off base?

Quoting hurrkat05:
austin i can tell you this uch when alex starts to be influeneced by the strong deepening trough in the 750mb level it will move to the north then shoot off pretty fast to the ne...this will happen in the next 36-48 hours..

hat
hmm lets say if you are right what lat are predicting this could happen and if it does a big if are conditions better there for further strenghthing looks like the trof is moving faster than alex right

Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
at the current rate of strengthening this will be the steering shortly

that deep layer ridge to Alexs' north is forecast to really build over the next few days. That makes the chances of Alex going north very slim and should push it more westward southward even as time goes on..

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Teh? LOL, J/k.

I agree. That stalling off the coast of the Yucatan messed timing up which then messed all of us up. A Mexico landfall still seems more likely, but my question is, why is it making landfall in Mexico opposed to moving towards the weakness?

Let him keep heading to Mexico....That weakness leads to me!!! LOL

1437 - The weakness is situated to the west of the storm center, I believe the combined effect of the A/B high (320deg) and the Midwest high (240deg) smooths out to 280deg WNW motion. The weakness is as of yet too close to the coast. However, if it moves eastward then the primary steering flow would cause a move to maybe 330deg-340deg, which besides shifting the landfall location would likely double Alex's time over water. This may be happening now as steering conditions evolve.

Quoting leo305:
ITS SHOCKING to me hat Alex has a 958mb pressure and the winds are only 80mph ...

Reminds of of Florence 2006, just refused to strengthen to NHC's predictions because of its size.

thanks storm w great update as always

not going to texas...

All this north talk. No models say north of border so y all the talk?

Quoting hurrkat05:
austin i can tell you this uch when alex starts to be influeneced by the strong deepening trough in the 750mb level it will move to the north then shoot off pretty fast to the ne...this will happen in the next 36-48 hours..

will you please wait till at least the D or E storm to be right? I want inland, I want torn up over the mountains, I want this OVER!! ♥♥