Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Alex Becomes a Hurricane

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 02:57 AM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010

Hi, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift.

430AM EDT Update
The 400AM EDT advisory package has hit the wires. Alex' center of circulation is located at 23.3N, 95.1W, which is 175 miles east of La Pesca, MX and 235 miles southeast of Brownsville, TX. Alex is responding to a weakness in the ridge to it's north, the storm motion has shifted to WNW at 7 mph. The winds are unchanged from the 100AM advisory, they are still 80 mph. However, Alex continues to deepen it's pressure, the minimum central pressure is 961 mb. Hurricane force winds now extend to 30 miles away from the center, and tropical force winds extend to 200 miles from the center. Alex is currently over warm ocean waters and under weak vertical shear, so the winds are forecast to increase. However, given the strength of Alex's central pressure, there is a small possibility of a rapid intensification of an additional 35 mph.

I haven't changed my risk assessment with this advisory. Flooding from rain still remains the greatest hazard posed by Alex. Tropical storm force winds are expected to reach the coast later this morning. People should plan on finishing their outdoor preparations by this time.

150 AM Update As of the 100AM EDT advisory, Alex is at 23.1N, 94.8W. The minimum central pressure is 972 mb, and the winds have increased to 80 mph. Alex is slowly moving westwards at 5 mph in an "erratic" fashion.

As of the 11PM EDT advisory, NHC has upgraded Alex to a hurricane with maximum winds of 75 mph and a minimum central pressure of 973 mb. Alex's center is at 23.1N, 94.8W, which is 255 miles south of Brownsville, TX and 195 miles east-southeast of La Pesca, MX. Alex is moving westwards at 9 mph. Alex is expected to slightly alter it's course to the WNW before making landfall south of the Rio Grande. The winds are also forecast to pick up to 90 mph before landfall. In any event, mandatory evacuation orders have been issued for recreational vehicles and other high-profile vehicles in county parks on South Padre Island. A voluntary evacuation is in place for residents of South Padre Island and Port Isabel.

Threat from storm surge
NHC is forecasting a 3-5 foot storm surge north of the eye as Alex makes landfall.

Threat from wind
NWS forecasters expect that damage from Alex's winds will be limited to the southern counties of Cameron, Willacy, and Hidalgo. Hurricane force winds extend 15 miles from the storm center, but tropical storm force winds extend 175 miles from the center. This is a rather large circulation. The Storm Prediction Center is monitoring southern Texas for the threat of tornadoes in the outer rainbands as Alex makes landfall. I'd expect a tornado watch to be issued around noon CDT.

Threat from rain
This is the most significant impact from Alex. Rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches are expected over northern Mexico/southern Texas with 20 inches possible in some locations. There will be flooding from this storm. If more than 5 inches fall in 6 hours, there will likely be flash flooding. The NWS office in Brownsville is advising people who were flooded out by Dolly in 2008 to evacuate to higher ground now.

Satellite-derived rainfall estimates for Alex's passage over the Yucatan peninsula on June 28, 2010. Data provided by the Climate Prediction Center.

Alex is the first Atlantic June hurricane since 1995's Allison. The storm tally for that season was 19 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. It will be interesting to see how this season compares to 1995.

Next update
I'll have an update Wednesday evening/night. Jeff will have an update sometime tomorrow morning.

Categories: Hurricane

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1351. MrNatural 01:04 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Quoting AustinTXWeather: TWC just mentioned latest data Alex dropped 1mb and now shows 958 Nice to run into a fellow "Longhorn". Looks like Alex is going to be a big rain maker in our neck of the woods. And with widespread rains from the past few days, flash flooding will definitely be an issue all day Thursday. I am concerned that Alex will veer north not long after it makes landfall this evening. Central Texas has its' share of storms that linger and cause much flooding. Hope it's not too serious. Member Since: Luglio 28, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 194

1352. mrsalagranny 01:04 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Thank you Storm.Great job.I guess Alex is just waiting to see where he wants to go.Its like he is playing any- mini-miny-Mo.LOL!!!!!!!!!! Member Since: Giugno 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 756

1354. angiest 01:06 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
This is a recent snapshot of the Brownsville radar's 0.5 degree base velocity scan. For those not familiar, the green is winds blowing toward the radar and red is blowing away. The red dot to the lower right is the approximate location of the center (hand-estimated from the reflectivity scan). Since the center is beyond the scan, the transition from green to red can serve as a proxy for tracking the center on this scan. If you extrapolate from the colour transition you notice it lines up closely to the dot. I will try to track the progress of the center in this way. Member Since: Agosto 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766

1355. aquak9 01:06 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Quoting RitaEvac: Someone reported to Houston media that some bridge over in Boliver was under water and needs to be closed, and this is the upper Tx coast during Ike's landfall, someone had the links/graphs to river flows from Bolivar on up to Bridge City, I remember the water being like 300x greater then normal flowing IN not out. maybe someone can grab those flow graphics again Member Since: Agosto 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25036

1357. AstroHurricane001 01:07 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Quoting Skyepony: I'm shocked the temp difference inside & outside the center isn't greater. A lot of the convection is in its outer bands. Member Since: Agosto 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2811

1358. nrtiwlnvragn 01:07 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
DestinJeff You can also look at the SHIPS Text for what it is indicating for steering: FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=624) Other models may have a different opinion. Member Since: Settembre 23, 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 9090

1359. beeleeva 01:08 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Thanks jpsb,,,Have to go to work soon,,worried about evac, tie downs on boats there,,keep safe.. Member Since: Luglio 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 81

1360. fahr 01:08 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
light rain and about 15 mph winds in Beeville - 50 miles inland N of Corpus - starting to see outer banding on our radar too. Member Since: novembre 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5

1361. Hardcoreweather2010 01:08 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
8am a wobble watch warning has been issued for the Weatherunderground.com and is in effect until 10pm tonight. You can expect many posters saying it's going one way when it's really going another. Forecaster Kinkaid Member Since: Gennaio 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529

1362. nrtiwlnvragn 01:09 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Quoting Skyepony: I'm shocked the temp difference inside & outside the center isn't greater. Noticed that also, especially since two hours earlier it was 6C. Member Since: Settembre 23, 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 9090

1364. drg0dOwnCountry 01:10 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Member Since: Settembre 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 1957

1366. AstroHurricane001 01:11 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Quoting StormW: Too many...driving me up the wall! Supercomputers don't handle interconnected elements very well. Forecasters should rely on their brains more than on computers for complex storms like Alex. I myself predicted fairly accurately the complex interaction between Super Typhoon Nida of November 2009, the changes in sea surface temperatures, and the shifting of quasi-stationary highs and lows across the Pacific and in the Atlantic but there were always unexpected factors that threw off my predictions. Member Since: Agosto 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2811

1367. txalwaysprepared 01:11 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Quoting StormW: Hot off the press! HURRICANE ALEX SYNOPSIS JUNE 30, 2010 ISSUED 8:55 A.M. EDT Thanks Storm!! Kind of what I was afraid of... hoping Alex goes inland QUICKLY!!! Member Since: Agosto 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642

1368. Mia337 01:11 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: pretty good indicator is fwd speed ... slow means things are happening to cause a direction change (perhaps) increased fwd speed means it will likely maintain heading. (in general) Thanks so much.

1369. Claudette1234 01:12 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
APRSWXNET Laguna Vista TX , Port Isabel, TX Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System, Add to My Blog, Set as Default Current Conditions, Historical Data & Charts 27.2 °C 25 °C 88% NE a 43.5 km/h / 12.1 m/s 999.2 HPA 0 mm / hr 31 °C 2 m 29 min 49 sec ago 999.2mb at Port Elisabeth weather station Member Since: Luglio 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 549

1370. AstroHurricane001 01:12 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Sorry to interrupt the direct discussion for a second, but an earthquake occurred this morning in Mexico within the outer bands of Alex and at a location under the influence of Alex's rainfall and reduced pressure: Member Since: Agosto 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2811

1371. Claudette1234 01:15 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Quoting AstroHurricane001: Sorry to interrupt the direct discussion for a second, but an earthquake occurred this morning in Mexico within the outer bands of Alex and at a location under the influence of Alex's rainfall and reduced pressure: Hello, Nosorry thanks for information. Member Since: Luglio 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 549

1372. bluenosedave 01:16 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010: 8am a wobble watch warning has been issued for the Weatherunderground.com and is in effect until 10pm tonight. You can expect many posters saying it's going one way when it's really going another. Forecaster Kinkaid Now THAT is funny, and oh, so true. LOL! Member Since: Agosto 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 329

1373. homelesswanderer 01:17 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Quoting AstroHurricane001: Sorry to interrupt the direct discussion for a second, but an earthquake occurred this morning in Mexico within the outer bands of Alex and at a location under the influence of Alex's rainfall and reduced pressure: Happened in the GOM as Rita was making landfall. Member Since: Agosto 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

1377. AstroHurricane001 01:18 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Quoting aquak9: during Ike's landfall, someone had the links/graphs to river flows from Bolivar on up to Bridge City, I remember the water being like 300x greater then normal flowing IN not out. maybe someone can grab those flow graphics again Ike's landfall... Member Since: Agosto 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2811

1378. homelesswanderer 01:19 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Quoting StormW: Morning Stef! Morning Storm! :) Member Since: Agosto 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

1379. AstroHurricane001 01:21 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
NHC predicted early on that Alex would stall or dramatically reduce forward speed prior to landfall. I guess they were right. Member Since: Agosto 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2811

1380. oddspeed 01:21 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Quoting AstroHurricane001: Ike's landfall... Member Since: Settembre 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 225

1382. txalwaysprepared 01:22 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
aquak Maybe it's in here somewhere http://prtl.uhcl.edu/portal/page/portal/FAO/Student_Tab_Related/Flood_Hurricane_Storm_Surge Member Since: Agosto 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642

1384. MiamiHurricanes09 01:23 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Hurricane Alex. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20006

1385. GetReal 01:25 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
My latest thoughts on Alex: Potential Track Problem For Alex Member Since: Luglio 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8201

1386. aquak9 01:26 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
txalways- thanks...but i think it was from a river site, like flow gauges or bouys in the river. I looked thru that, couldn't find it. Member Since: Agosto 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25036

1387. hurricanejunky 01:26 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Hey Taz, How's the Chipotle and honey BBQ crow tasting right now? You did say you wanted both. Member Since: Agosto 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2877

1388. Chucktown 01:26 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Quoting hurrkat05: astrohurricane no way at anytime did the nhc predict alex would STALL....they had him picking up speed and moving inland with no problem... Astro is a doomcaster Member Since: Agosto 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1411

1389. Berryfine1 01:27 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Quoting Claudette1234: APRSWXNET Laguna Vista TX , Port Isabel, TX Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System, Add to My Blog, Set as Default Current Conditions, Historical Data & Charts 27.2 °C 25 °C 88% NE a 43.5 km/h / 12.1 m/s 999.2 HPA 0 mm / hr 31 °C 2 m 29 min 49 sec ago 999.2mb at Port Elisabeth weather station Claudette1234, Are you in Port Isabel?

1390. MiamiHurricanes09 01:28 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Alex definitely has an eye, it is occluded by the clouds above though. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20006

1391. AstroHurricane001 01:28 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Quoting Chucktown: Astro is a doomcaster Sigh. Third advisory: NHC predicted slowing in forward motion, but not the associated rapid strengthening. Member Since: Agosto 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2811

1392. PensacolaDoug 01:28 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Oz is gonna broacast live untill he gets thru the international border. Member Since: Luglio 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4831

1394. jpsb 01:31 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Quoting beeleeva: Thanks jpsb,,,Have to go to work soon,,worried about evac, tie downs on boats there,,keep safe.. Harbor Master will no doubt see to it that all boats are secured (tied) well. So long as Alex stays a long ways away everything should be fine. Just a nice breezy day with a rather high tide. Quoting AstroHurricane001: Ike's landfall... Barrier Islands are not a good place to be during a hurricane. Member Since: Giugno 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 578

1395. aquak9 01:32 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Kinda like this- a bouy near Rollover Pass Link but it had flow data, like cubic feet/minute, and flow direction. Member Since: Agosto 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25036

1396. Claudette1234 01:32 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Quoting Berryfine1: Claudette1234, Are you in Port Isabel? No im not only is a MADIS station Member Since: Luglio 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 549

1397. Hardcoreweather2010 01:32 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Quoting hurrkat05: OZ is going to have to RELOCATE himself north if he is going to video live feed from ALEX...one thing in his favor is time at least 36 hours before things start to really explode.. Do you have a direct link to his stream ? I want to post it on my site Member Since: Gennaio 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529

1401. Tropicaddict 01:33 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Quoting StormW: HURRICANE ALEX SYNOPSIS JUNE 30, 2010 ISSUED 8:55 A.M. EDT Storm....when is landfall "expected"? I mean, how much time does Alex have before the longwave trof affects it? Member Since: Settembre 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 207

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