Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Alex Becomes a Hurricane

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 02:57 AM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010

Hi, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift.

430AM EDT Update
The 400AM EDT advisory package has hit the wires. Alex' center of circulation is located at 23.3N, 95.1W, which is 175 miles east of La Pesca, MX and 235 miles southeast of Brownsville, TX. Alex is responding to a weakness in the ridge to it's north, the storm motion has shifted to WNW at 7 mph. The winds are unchanged from the 100AM advisory, they are still 80 mph. However, Alex continues to deepen it's pressure, the minimum central pressure is 961 mb. Hurricane force winds now extend to 30 miles away from the center, and tropical force winds extend to 200 miles from the center. Alex is currently over warm ocean waters and under weak vertical shear, so the winds are forecast to increase. However, given the strength of Alex's central pressure, there is a small possibility of a rapid intensification of an additional 35 mph.

I haven't changed my risk assessment with this advisory. Flooding from rain still remains the greatest hazard posed by Alex. Tropical storm force winds are expected to reach the coast later this morning. People should plan on finishing their outdoor preparations by this time.

150 AM Update As of the 100AM EDT advisory, Alex is at 23.1N, 94.8W. The minimum central pressure is 972 mb, and the winds have increased to 80 mph. Alex is slowly moving westwards at 5 mph in an "erratic" fashion.

As of the 11PM EDT advisory, NHC has upgraded Alex to a hurricane with maximum winds of 75 mph and a minimum central pressure of 973 mb. Alex's center is at 23.1N, 94.8W, which is 255 miles south of Brownsville, TX and 195 miles east-southeast of La Pesca, MX. Alex is moving westwards at 9 mph. Alex is expected to slightly alter it's course to the WNW before making landfall south of the Rio Grande. The winds are also forecast to pick up to 90 mph before landfall. In any event, mandatory evacuation orders have been issued for recreational vehicles and other high-profile vehicles in county parks on South Padre Island. A voluntary evacuation is in place for residents of South Padre Island and Port Isabel.

Threat from storm surge
NHC is forecasting a 3-5 foot storm surge north of the eye as Alex makes landfall.

Threat from wind
NWS forecasters expect that damage from Alex's winds will be limited to the southern counties of Cameron, Willacy, and Hidalgo. Hurricane force winds extend 15 miles from the storm center, but tropical storm force winds extend 175 miles from the center. This is a rather large circulation. The Storm Prediction Center is monitoring southern Texas for the threat of tornadoes in the outer rainbands as Alex makes landfall. I'd expect a tornado watch to be issued around noon CDT.

Threat from rain
This is the most significant impact from Alex. Rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches are expected over northern Mexico/southern Texas with 20 inches possible in some locations. There will be flooding from this storm. If more than 5 inches fall in 6 hours, there will likely be flash flooding. The NWS office in Brownsville is advising people who were flooded out by Dolly in 2008 to evacuate to higher ground now.

Satellite-derived rainfall estimates for Alex's passage over the Yucatan peninsula on June 28, 2010. Data provided by the Climate Prediction Center.

Alex is the first Atlantic June hurricane since 1995's Allison. The storm tally for that season was 19 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. It will be interesting to see how this season compares to 1995.

Next update
I'll have an update Wednesday evening/night. Jeff will have an update sometime tomorrow morning.

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1201. 7544 11:52 AM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
wow just checked on alex before i came here who gave him wheaties or special k . as he gets bigger today the triof coming down would this change his direction . as bigger storm steers where tia morning xcool btwn are u ready looks like he moved further north than expected this am . swtay safe there Member Since: Maggio 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5925

1202. IKE 11:53 AM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Quoting HurricaneSwirl: I think he meant inside the actual system lol Yeah...I was saying that based off recon. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37047

1203. Chicklit 11:53 AM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
000 WTNT31 KNHC 301140 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010 700 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010 ...ALEX MOVING IN NO HURRY...... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 95.3W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES The storm is expected to strengthen until landfall. Member Since: Luglio 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10255

1204. BahaHurican 11:53 AM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Quoting HurricaneSwirl: I think he meant inside the actual system lol LOL.... well, this is about the only spot where I've seen the # called recently... though there was a dropsonde earlier with 89mph near the surface around 5a.m..... Member Since: Ottobre 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17682

1205. PensacolaDoug 11:55 AM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Oz is on his way into Mexico this morning. His jump off point will be San Fernando. Member Since: Luglio 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4828

1206. BahaHurican 11:56 AM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
new page, new link.... still not showing much. Member Since: Ottobre 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17682

1207. BahaHurican 11:57 AM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Pity Oz got himself banned .... Member Since: Ottobre 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17682

1208. Chicklit 11:57 AM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N26W TO 17N25W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE LIES WEST OF THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. *CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ALSO NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD BETWEEN 23W-30W.* ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-11N BETWEEN 23W-30W. Hi Baha, and there's one behind that too. Looks like the CV Wave Train is running a little bit ahead of schedule. Member Since: Luglio 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10255

1209. weathermanwannabe 11:57 AM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Quoting BahaHurican: Morning, wxman... MUO forecast seems to change on a weekly basis, so I'm not quite sure what to expect the next couple of weeks. Last week we were supposed to be in a quiet mode until about Jul 20; however, yesterday somebody posted lastest analysis and forecast which showed continued upward motion of MJO for almost all of the first 2 decades of the month.... everything else seems to be conducive for formation, though the ITCZ is still relatively low.... If I recall correctly, D. M was expecting an uptick in the MJO, which coincided with with Alex, and we need to keep an eye on that feature over the next several weeks. Next big factor I am looking at right now, independent of potential activity in July, is the current position of the Bermuda High. If it "sets" for the Summer in the current general location (although it will shift a bit during the peak of the season), there appears to be a "bee-line" from Africa to the Antilles right now. If this general pattern holds as the ITCZ rises, and La Nina unfolds in August, I think we will see the CV tracks, as compared to Alex, gain latitude and the next CV storms (in late July going into August)will have a much better shot at a Florida or Central Gulf landfall.....Time will tell. Member Since: Agosto 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6703

1211. BahaHurican 11:58 AM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Re: 1208 Chicklit Geez, it's still not quite off the coast, is it? This looks like it might remain robust enough to be a player in 7-10 days.... Member Since: Ottobre 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17682

1212. weathermanwannabe 11:59 AM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Touche for Joe B. then on this one (but a lucky guess)...... Member Since: Agosto 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6703

1213. Claudette1234 11:59 AM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Another 2mb when reach the eye so next pass 957mb or 956mb. Incredible remind me IKE Member Since: Luglio 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 549

1214. BahaHurican 12:01 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Quoting Chicklit: ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N26W TO 17N25W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE LIES WEST OF THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. *CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ALSO NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD BETWEEN 23W-30W.* ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-11N BETWEEN 23W-30W. Hi Baha, and there's one behind that too. Looks like the CV Wave Train is running a little bit ahead of schedule. Well, I like trains, but I'm thinkin' this isn't one I'm in a hurry to catch.... Member Since: Ottobre 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17682

1215. whipster 12:02 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Quoting PensacolaDoug: Oz is on his way into Mexico this morning. His jump off point will be San Fernando. Lots of drug violence down there, he needs to keep a low profile. They just killed the governor candidate. Member Since: Agosto 14, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 422

1217. Chicklit 12:03 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Fearsome stuff. Still waiting for an update on this from 4 a.m. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THAT ALEX IS ALSO MOVING SLOWLY OVER SOME OF THE WARMEST UPPER-OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IN THAT REGION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...STEADY STRENGTHENING RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL SEEMS REASONABLE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY THE RECON AIRCRAFT...RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF AT LEAST 30 KT IN 24 HOURS IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. Member Since: Luglio 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10255

1218. BahaHurican 12:03 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
This is about the best from ghcc website, and it's about 4 hrs. old.... Member Since: Ottobre 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17682

1219. MiamiHurricanes09 12:03 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Recon going back into the eye and eyewall of Alex. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1220. Chicklit 12:04 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Quoting BahaHurican: Well, I like trains, but I'm thinkin' this isn't one I'm in a hurry to catch.... Zing! (As Atmo would say.) Good one rofl Member Since: Luglio 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10255

1222. Chicklit 12:05 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Quoting PensacolaDoug: Oz is on his way into Mexico this morning. His jump off point will be San Fernando. I hope he brought fins. Member Since: Luglio 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10255

1224. MiamiHurricanes09 12:06 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1225. Asta 12:06 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Morning All! Member Since: Luglio 4, 2008 Posts: 30 Comments: 1018

1227. BahaHurican 12:07 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Well, I gotta go. I got a bit of a break in there, but now I have work to do.... L8r, all. Sure hope that 30K in 24 hr prediction doesn't pan out.... Member Since: Ottobre 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17682

1229. Chicklit 12:08 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Hi Miami, Alex is looking good this morning. And I've got to go to the dentist. Bah!!@ Member Since: Luglio 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10255

1231. stormwatcherCI 12:08 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Quoting PensacolaDoug: Oz is on his way into Mexico this morning. His jump off point will be San Fernando. I am looking forward to his broadcast and pray he stays safe. He is a little too daredevil for me but I guess if he enjoys it that is the main thing. Member Since: Ottobre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8043

1232. weathermanwannabe 12:08 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
While still waiting for more daylight, as the vis loops are still dark, I can't discern an eye on Alex at the moment.........Anyone locate an eye yet by other means? Member Since: Agosto 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6703

1233. Asta 12:09 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
LINK Member Since: Luglio 4, 2008 Posts: 30 Comments: 1018

1235. stormwatcherCI 12:09 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Quoting BahaHurican: Pity Oz got himself banned .... You can find him on xtremehurricanes.com and watch his live broadcast. Member Since: Ottobre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8043

1236. HurricaneSwirl 12:09 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Low shear over our tropical wave, but very strong band to the west, can someone tell me if that's gonna move anytime soon? I also looked at SAL and there's none of that near the wave either. Member Since: Luglio 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

1237. MiamiHurricanes09 12:09 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Quoting Chicklit: Hi Miami, Alex is looking good this morning. And I've got to go to the dentist. Bah!!@ Hey Chicklit! Yeah Alex is looking good on satellite. Now that recon is going back into the eye this should get interesting. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1238. Chicklit 12:09 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
...so is it a typo in Dr. Carver's blog that winds are "still 90 mph?" Member Since: Luglio 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10255

1239. HurricaneSwirl 12:10 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Quoting Chicklit: Hi Miami, Alex is looking good this morning. And I've got to go to the dentist. Bah!!@ me too LOL in 20 minutes :( Member Since: Luglio 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

1241. HurricaneSwirl 12:11 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Quoting Chicklit: ...so is it a typo in Dr. Carver's blog that winds are "still* 90 mph?"* Yeah. Member Since: Luglio 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

1243. kmanislander 12:11 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Good Morning I see that the weak steering regime from last night is still a problem. This has really been a fascinating scenario to watch unfold. The weakness between the two highs has still not filled although some slow progress towards land continues. Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

1244. weatherguy03 12:11 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Hurricane Alex Update Member Since: Luglio 5, 2005 Posts: 581 Comments: 29680

1245. MiamiHurricanes09 12:12 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Quoting HurricaneSwirl: me too LOL in 20 minutes :( LOL! That sucks. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1246. Asta 12:12 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
LINK Member Since: Luglio 4, 2008 Posts: 30 Comments: 1018

1247. SpicyAngel1072 12:12 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Quoting BahaHurican: Pity Oz got himself banned .... how? Member Since: Settembre 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 315

1248. surfmom 12:13 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Post 1208 - thanks Chicklit - I'm already looking towards the future...gulp... with a tub of oil in the gulf and more gushing... kinda feels like pending doom for the Gomex coasties Member Since: Luglio 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

1249. Neapolitan 12:13 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
Quoting weathermanwannabe: While still waiting for more daylight, as the vis loops are still dark, I can't discern an eye on Alex at the moment.........Anyone locate an eye yet by other means? Looks pretty evident here. Member Since: novembre 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11170

1250. PensacolaDoug 12:14 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
OZ just went live! xtremehurricanes.com Member Since: Luglio 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4828

1251. pilatus 12:14 PM GMT del 30 Giugno 2010
recon should be sampling the NE quadrant with this pass to. would be interesting. Member Since: Agosto 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 19

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