Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
When it peaks prior to landfall you will likely see some 949-940mb readings, you might even see some 930s.

if we get into 930's that usually is equal to cat 4/5 right

958.3 mb
(~ 28.30 inHg)

23.817N 95.417W


That's more N than W of the last fix

turned into NE quadrant meaning we will see how high these winds are... before 11 AM

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 14:15Z
Date: June 30, 2010
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 01
Storm Name: Alex (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 11
Observation Number: 49


14:15:00Z 23.933N 95.367W 844.0 mb

(~ 24.92 inHg) 1,158 meters

(~ 3,799 feet) 962.5 mb

(~ 28.42 inHg) - From 122° at 62 knots

(From the ESE at ~ 71.3 mph)

958.3mb pressure reading was located at: 23.4°N 95.2°W. The 8AM intermediate advisory center fix was at: 23.4°N 95.3°W.

Alex is obviously stationary, and believe it or not drifting slowly eastward.

its goin to mexico accept it and move on

If I lived close to Brownsville Texas.. this northern shift would bother me... a lot



AOI

7am CDT Intermediate Advisory
Information via the National Hurricane Center

Always good to remember that a few degrees of variation or wobble, as a storm is approching landfall, can mean a difference of a few hundred miles in terms of the eyewall...But, to my eyes, the current "drift" appears to be towards the North a bit but still within the cone.....Agree with Storm that we might see a general "border" area landfall give or take a hundred miles on either side (more impacts felt in Texas).

1556 - No, it is still moving NW-NNW, the intermediate position was based on satellite estimates and was off a couple tenths of a degree. It is moving slowly however.

Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


if we get into 930's that usually is equal to cat 4/5 right

900mb is not out of the question..

Quoting FLdewey:
Geez the Northwishing won't stop until landfall in Mexico... heck maybe even after landfall.

LOL! True! ;)

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
958.3mb pressure reading was located at: 23.4°N 95.2°W. The 8AM intermediate advisory center fix was at: 23.4°N 95.3°W.

Alex is obviously stationary, and believe it or not drifting slowly eastward.

That should put a kinck in the NHC projected path. This could get real interesting.

Just woke up, pointed my curser at the center of the storm of the floater from last night, refreshed it, and it has moved an inch! Not just that, but a NW movement, Amazing storm.

from radar view, the eye from an Xtrap point of view would take it north of Brownsville

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
958.3mb pressure reading was located at: 23.4°N 95.2°W. The 8AM intermediate advisory center fix was at: 23.4°N 95.3°W.

Alex is obviously stationary, and believe it or not drifting slowly eastward.

Looking at Pat's radar, motion appears to be NW. Are you seeing something different?

Quoting Max1023:
1556 - No, it is still moving NW-NNW, the intermediate position was based on satellite estimates and was off a couple tenths of a degree. It is moving slowly however.

Just pointing out the coordinates between center fixes, and I believe that the 8AM advisory position was from Recon and not satellite. Either way Alex seems to be moving very slowly.

new blog

NEW BLOG!

definitely a shift...still going to Mexico...

No northwishing here... Some would just like to know how much weather we will get from this storm. The further north it goes the more severe/weather some of us will get. 100 miles can make a difference

Hey STORMW
Could you give us your thoughts on this supposed weakness in the ridge. Even if it exists does it really have a major influence on the steering of Alex. I don't see a stall and I don't see a true NW. I still see a WNW. Just a reminder to all picking apart the SAT's frame by frame is very deceiving. The earth is round and huge.

WATER VAPOR

IR

With the steering bieng so weak, is there a chance this storm could possibly ride up the coast. Just curious

Quoting mcluvincane:



That should put a kinck in the NHC projected path This could get real interesting.

If that is true should New Orleans Start Evac? Way to soon to say east movement.

I wonder if the storm can wobble if most of the convection gets forced to one side because of dry air.

Quoting watchingnva:


definitely a shift...still going to Mexico...

You'd best be putting up a big disclaimer and cropping out their logo you go coloring on government maps.

Quoting watchingnva:


definitely a shift...still going to Mexico...

Probably a decent wobble. It;s going to continue to wobble too.

To follow the NHC forecast path Alex is going to have to slam on it's brakes and make a sharp left, after speeding up a little to the NW.

Saved as favorite - Thank You!

01L/H/A/C2
MARK(APPROACHING LANDFALL)
24.6N/97.1W