Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting louisianaboy444:


GOOD JOB! Do i make the winnings out to Record Season or do you go by another name my friend wink wink :)

ah ok, good one lol

troll OMG HERE WE GO

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
The only consecutive Cat 5 storm (even though I've never believed it should count as a Cat 5 storm):

Even though Erin developed while Dean was active, it also dissipated while Dean was active. Felix was the next storm to form after Dean.. and they become consecutive Category 5s.

93L looks to have a very good chance of becoming the first storm of 2010.

Quoting extreme236:


They will probably say it's showing some signs of organization. Probably orange alert (30%...maybe 40%)

Agreed.

Quoting Hurricanes101: "dissipate the oil? by doing what bringing it inland? Yea ok cuz that is better *rolls eyes*"

I can't help but think BP has been praying for a hurricane to clear the oil. If the oil and water turn into foam and get sprayed around, ti's a mess but a thin coating over large places is impossible to clean up: i.e. no cost.

Curacao is reporting NE and Bonaire is reporting winds out of the WNW (wind shift). A closed low is trying to form.

More banding on N side, none yet seen on S side.

This is all The Weather Channel has to say about 93L as of 11:53AM. This seems a little lame to me.

ATLANTIC

A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the open waters as well as nearby land areas, including northern South America and the Lesser Antilles. This system should produce some locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Lesser Antilles regardless of whether or not it develops into a tropical cyclone.

Quoting RecordSeason:
344:

I promise I'm not JFV.

I am a completely different jackass.

Uh oh lol

Quoting Drakoen:
Curacao is reporting NE and Bonaire is reporting winds out of the WNW (wind shift). A closed low is trying to form.

We will likely see TD 1 by tonight and TS alex by tomorrow, if not TD 1 by morning

Whats different about 93L is that conditions are FAVORABLE!! I expect a TD in a few days, IF shear is low in the GOM, and this makes it in there, EXPECT rapid development into a Hurricane like the EURO is showing.

Quoting Patrap:
#306

Opal..95.

She almost caught many on I-10 Evacuating..but thankfully weakened rapidly before landfall.

Opal was a dud...still packed a decent surge, but the winds really dropped off before landfall. One of only 3 eyes I've had the experience of witnessing.

We might get a TD quicker than we think.

BTW, also expect the NHC chances to go up, possibly to an orange code.

Quoting Patrap:
Donna near the Keys, Radar Image 1960

We can still see tree damage from Donna on U.S.41. Powerful storm.

Quoting StormW:
If you go here, zoom and animate, you can see it wrapping up.

NASA

Can't do it, have to have a special edition of java.

Quoting Patrap:
Opal 95 shows how fast we can get a Bad one...close to Home.

She was my second Hurricane after moving to the Florida Panhandle in 1992. Erin came through in August as a Cat 1 but Opal in October amazed me with how fast it could develop and move towards the coast when a front picked her up and brought her to town!

Quoting GBguy88:


Opal was a dud...still packed a decent surge, but the winds really dropped off before landfall. One of only 3 eyes I've had the experience of witnessing.

she was a pretty devastating dud! my gosh she wiped out the coast from pensacola to appalachicola. Entire streets and neighborhoods were washed away.

Quoting reedzone:
BTW, also expect the NHC chances to go up, possibly to an orange code.

Thats a no-brainer for sure.

Quoting GBguy88:


Opal was a dud...still packed a decent surge, but the winds really dropped off before landfall. One of only 3 eyes I've had the experience of witnessing.

A dud? It killed 59 people, more than Andrew and Charley combined and caused 6 billion in damage.

Quoting saintsfan06:
This is all The Weather Channel has to say about 93L as of 11:53AM. This seems a little lame to me.

ATLANTIC

A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the open waters as well as nearby land areas, including northern South America and the Lesser Antilles. This system should produce some locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Lesser Antilles regardless of whether or not it develops into a tropical cyclone.

Don't watch the TWC if any of us do its just for comic purposes

Thanks Pat for the audio of Dr. Masters. The unknown of toxic dispersants really bothers me!

Quoting Drakoen:
Curacao is reporting NE and Bonaire is reporting winds out of the WNW (wind shift). A closed low is trying to form.

pressure is falling

Bonaire now reporting WNW winds and falling pressure.

Surface low organizing

Quoting tropicfreak:


Can't do it, have to have a special edition of java.

IE8 plus all the current updates and it works fine

I have been following this website for over 6 years now and this is perhaps the first time I have seen Dr. Master stat; "major problem" for an invest!... That is pretty amazing... he didn't even use the word "potential." Scary stuff.

Quoting Floodman:


Wow...so you don't see the slightest possibility of something interfering with this feature developing? How about track? I imagine you can tell us exactly where it's going? A CAT7 super-hypercane in Tampa at 144 hours?

No, CAT8 into New Orleans. Already I think I see a pinhole eye!

Quoting Levi32:
93L looks to have a very good chance of becoming the first storm of 2010.

and the first major to boot mark my words

I honestly don't understand why Dr. Masters is going really conservative with this one when wind shear ahead of this invest is 5-10 knots..

opal did catch many on I-10. My niece spent opal on I-10 in the jam.

Quoting winter123:

No, CAT8 into New Orleans. Already I think I see a pinhole eye!

The Red Spot on Jupiter is an Analog storm IMO

Quoting reedzone:
I honestly don't understand why Dr. Masters is going really conservative with this one when wind shear ahead of this invest is 5-10 knots..

He sees no reason to freak us all out yet.

Quoting scott39:
Thanks Pat for the audio of Dr. Masters. The unknown of toxic dispersants really bothers me!

Were entering a period of Unknowns big Time scott

Were all gonna have to be on our toes now as the world will be watching here.

We can roll Info or go berserk.

Im gonna choose to roll Info.

Quoting louisianaboy444:


The Red Spot on Jupiter is an Analog storm IMO

lmao

Quoting kmanislander:
Bonaire now reporting WNW winds and falling pressure.

Surface low organizing

yeppers time is real short for first storm to form

Quoting winter123:

No, CAT8 into New Orleans. Already I think I see a pinhole eye!

LOL...if you're going to be a bear, be a grizzly!

This thing is rapidly organizing, surface low is currently developing as we speak.

Are there oil plumes less than 500ft?

Quoting Drakoen:
Curacao is reporting NE and Bonaire is reporting winds out of the WNW (wind shift). A closed low is trying to form.

93L Seem more like a convergence line to me.

Here we go! We better stay on our toes!

Quoting Drakoen:
Curacao is reporting NE and Bonaire is reporting winds out of the WNW (wind shift). A closed low is trying to form.

Quoting kmanislander:
Bonaire now reporting WNW winds and falling pressure.

Surface low organizing

Keep in mind that the two other stations on the island are reporting SSE winds. If there is any westerly wind trying to start it is not very defined yet. We'll have to keep watching it.

Quoting twhcracker:
opal did catch many on I-10. My niece spent opal on I-10 in the jam.

A situation like that could lead to a huge loss of life. I remember as Katrina was hitting there were rumors that there were hundreds of cars stuck on bridges...thank goodness those rumors were not true since those bridges didn't survive the storm.

Quoting CaneWarning:


He sees no reason to freak us all out yet.

Tru, I guess it's a good call then. All I'm saying, and I said this last nght, with those warm above average sea temps in the GOM, EXPECT a Hurricane to form IF shear values are low.