Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 02:50 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010

A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)

Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.

Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.

Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.

Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)

Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo

Categories: Flood Hurricane

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3601. weathermanwannabe 11:26 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Good Morning. One comment and one questions for the AM gang. As to the comment, with all of the heat energy in the tropics, it would come as no surprise that the first few storms of the season might end up as hurricanes as opposed to tropical storms. As to the question, I was not looking at it overnight, when NHC gave it the 50% at 2:00 am but it looks a little ragged this morning to my eyes. How did it look around mid-night last night or 1:00 am this morning........Better than it looks now?.......Thanks. Member Since: Agosto 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6698

3602. stormpetrol 11:27 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
COC of 93L in my estimartion 14.9N/72.8W Member Since: Aprile 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6400

3603. MahFL 11:28 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
The center seems to be forming at 70W 15.5N Member Since: Giugno 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2430

3604. MahFL 11:30 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Stormpetrol, your just a touch too far west - imho,I see clouds moving south just west of 70. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2430

3606. CybrTeddy 11:32 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting weathermanwannabe: Good Morning. One comment and one questions for the AM gang. As to the comment, with all of the heat energy in the tropics, it would come as no surprise that the first few storms of the season might end up as hurricanes as opposed to tropical storms. As to the question, I was not looking at it overnight, when NHC gave it the 50% at 2:00 am but it looks a little ragged this morning to my eyes. How did it look around mid-night last night or 1:00 am this morning........Better than it looks now?.......Thanks. Its not looking ragged, the COC appears to be forming in the convection to the W. Member Since: Luglio 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20259

3607. REELHOUSE 11:33 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
I just wanted to say, the raw commentary in that video is hilarious! Member Since: Febbraio 18, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 7

3608. greentortuloni 11:33 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Interesting blog about oil in the gulf from U. GA. Member Since: Giugno 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1188

3610. IKE 11:34 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
6Z GFDL Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

3611. kmanislander 11:34 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Good morning 93L is still very disorganized this morning but that is not surprising given where it started. Even with an anticyclone overhead the Caribbean is simply not conducive for development until close to Jamaica near 75W. The impression I get from the satellite imagery is one of two competing areas of relatively weak vorticity within a much larger and more diffuse gyre. Until the system resolves this dysfunctional structure it will not develop into a TD. Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

3612. weathermanwannabe 11:34 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Regardless of the potential for short term development, it is very close to Haiti right now and a potential nighmare for the earthquake vitims in temporary housing if the rains, or bands, expand across Haiti over the course of the day. Member Since: Agosto 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6698

3613. wunderkidcayman 11:35 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
hey stormpetrol whats up what going on over by your side Member Since: Giugno 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5449

3615. CybrTeddy 11:37 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
I have the COC right between the two main convection blobs, thats also were the NRL has it too. Member Since: Luglio 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20259

3616. IKE 11:38 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
What I sense from the models is a broad area of low pressure in the GOM in 5-7 days. I see the ridge breaking down early next week on the GFS. In the end this may just be nothing more than an increase in moisture along the northern GOM. It could be more, but I don't see it right now. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

3617. IKE 11:39 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Down to 40% TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... HAITI...AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

3619. CybrTeddy 11:39 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
40% now. Member Since: Luglio 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20259

3620. SAINTHURRIFAN 11:40 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
look what happened to the gfdl major hurricane. now its a weak low in the west central gulf after being disrupted by the yucatan. gfs still shows nothing. hrwf has not updated if it shows nothing then the crazy cmc would be basically on its own , and thats normal lol. Member Since: Agosto 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 668

3622. kmanislander 11:40 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting IKE: Down to 40% TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... HAITI...AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE That fits with what we are seeing this morning. Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

3624. CybrTeddy 11:43 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Strange, the NHC didn't state why they bumped it down to 40%. They didn't say it has 'changed little in organization' or 'less organized.' Member Since: Luglio 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20259

3625. WxLogic 11:43 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Good morning... Member Since: Agosto 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4667

3626. alaina1085 11:43 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Morning all! This is starting to remind me of last years season, altho I know it wont be anything like it, I just mean in regards to how nothing could get going LOL. We are all going to go mental! lol. Morning Storm Kman, I really enjoy your input... one avatar I always look for to read what you have to say. Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1234

3629. CybrTeddy 11:45 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
I have a feeling 93L's going to be like pre-Dolly and pre-Fay. Drive us all insane. Member Since: Luglio 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20259

3630. weathermanwannabe 11:45 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
In the short term, there are actually two major impediments IMHO to formation....Close proximity to land, and, the bands of high sheer across the northen quadrant of the area of interest......A general west to south-west movement might be the best chance for it given the current sheer profiles.....It's rather "boxed in" at the moment. Member Since: Agosto 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6698

3632. alaina1085 11:46 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy: I have a feeling 93L's going to be like pre-Dolly and pre-Fay. Drive us all insane. I am already losing sleep over this thing! LOL. I must have woke up 3 times wanting to check the blog. Is there a tropical weather rehab? ;) Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1234

3633. wunderkidcayman 11:47 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
IKE it is expected to drop down due to the loss of convection but once that gains some and the low level spin can get more pronounced then we will get 60% and higher Member Since: Giugno 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5449

3635. kmanislander 11:47 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy: Strange, the NHC didn't state why they bumped it down to 40%. They didn't say it has 'changed little in organization' or 'less organized.' This time yesterday morning it had a more cohesive structure and was in the process of developing a banding type cloud formation. Today the cloud deck is all over the place. While the NHC did not specifically say it is less organized today I think the deterioration in satellite appearance coupled with the fact that no well defined low has developed some 24 hours later implicitly suggests a less well organized system warranting a downgrade. Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

3636. CybrTeddy 11:47 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting alaina1085: I am already losing sleep over this thing! LOL. I must have woke up 3 times wanting to check the blog. Is there a tropical weather rehab? ;) Haha me too! I woke up at 2 am to check the TWO.. its an obsession! If there is a rehab, sign me up LOL. Member Since: Luglio 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20259

3638. BenBIogger 11:48 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Good Morning! How is our over-hyped convergence line doing this morning? Member Since: Marzo 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419

3639. MahFL 11:48 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
One thing is for sure, there is not much shear over the coc.....which is bad news..... Member Since: Giugno 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2430

3640. kmanislander 11:48 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting StormW: It's fixing to get interesting. Remember that area just east of the Antilles folks were ranting about...well guess what's sneaking up on 93L? IR2 Uh oh. Not the dreaded Vulcan mind meld ?. Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

3642. weathermanwannabe 11:49 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting StormW: What shear? The sheer across Haiti, moving from west to east, in the 30-40 knot range if I am reading the chart correctly?....... :) Member Since: Agosto 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6698

3643. CybrTeddy 11:50 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting kmanislander: This time yesterday morning it had a more cohesive structure and was in the process of developing a banding type cloud formation. Today the cloud deck is all over the place. While the NHC did not specifically say it is less organized today I think the deterioration in satellite appearance coupled with the fact that no well defined low has developed some 24 hours later implicitly suggests a less well organized system warranting a downgrade. Yea, that sounds about right with what the ASCAT showed. We need an organized LLC for anything to get going. Also to note, remember the John Hope rule? 'If it doesn't develop in the Eastern Caribbean, it wont do so until it gets to the western' I believe 93L is following that rule. I've actually rarely seen a tropical cyclone break it. Member Since: Luglio 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20259

3644. cg2916 11:50 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Morning all! What happened to 93L? It's looking worse than last night. Member Since: Dicembre 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2908

3645. Orcasystems 11:51 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
FUBAR AOI AOI AOI AOI TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI Member Since: Ottobre 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

3646. CybrTeddy 11:51 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Member Since: Luglio 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20259

3647. kmanislander 11:52 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting StormW: Morning kman! Good morning. So you think a third area of vorticity is going to help 93L ?. Interesting thing is that the vort from the SE is moving at a much faster clip than 93L. I don't know how the two will go about matching up like that. Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

3648. cg2916 11:52 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting weathermanwannabe: The sheer across Haiti, moving from west to east, in the 30-40 knot range if I am reading the chart correctly?....... :) The most it's facing is 20 knots at the very northernmost clouds. Member Since: Dicembre 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2908

3649. pottery 11:52 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
'Morning. Big changes in 7 hours since I last looked at 93 and the wave east of here. Neither area looks threatening at the moment. Surprising to me, both of them. I thought we were getting torrential rain here today, and it's the prettiest morning I have seen in a long time. Ah!! The Weather... Member Since: Ottobre 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

3650. alaina1085 11:52 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting cg2916: Morning all! What happened to 93L? It's looking worse than last night. It's stubborn! Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1234

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