Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 02:50 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010

A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)

Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.

Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.

Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.

Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)

Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo

Categories: Flood Hurricane

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3452. xcool 06:37 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
EricSFL bye Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

3453. WatchingThisOne 06:37 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting xcool: When the HWRF, GDFL, UKMET, CMC and NGP are taking "something" over the non-mountainous western tip of Cuba into the GOM, that "something" having steamed over sizzling SSTs and high TCHP and TPW ... I'd say it's time to pay close attention. Edit: forgot low shear Member Since: Luglio 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1249

3454. xcool 06:39 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
WatchingThisOne .I Agree With You, Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

3455. xcool 06:40 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
; Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

3456. lparky 06:42 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting WatchingThisOne: When the HWRF, GDFL, UKMET, CMC and NGP are taking "something" over the non-mountainous western tip of Cuba into the GOM, that "something" having steamed over sizzling SSTs and high TCHP and TPW ... I'd say it's time to pay close attention. I get what you are saying, is it too early to really watch models? Member Since: Agosto 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 17

3457. xcool 06:43 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
guess what rob. Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

3458. Ivanhater 06:43 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
inside word is 00z euro is not good for the gom Member Since: Giugno 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 53

3459. xcool 06:44 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Ivanhater do you see that. Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

3460. reedzone 06:45 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting xcool: New EURO? Member Since: Luglio 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

3461. xcool 06:45 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
yes Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

3462. StormGoddess 06:47 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting weathersp: Or instead of argueing about the shear on maps... you can look at REAL Observations.. May I present to you... the Curacao RAOB! And the 850-250mb vertical shear is... 15 kts! That's a very cool chart! :) Night all. Member Since: Giugno 10, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 570

3463. xcool 06:47 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
kj Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

3464. WatchingThisOne 06:47 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting lparky: I get what you are saying, is it too early to really watch models? In my opinion, it too early to watch any given model. But when that particular set of models is arriving at the same conclusion at this stage of (non) development it is worth watching if they continue to agree. What they are saying makes sense. 93L is in a very conducive environment and heading into better ... if it hangs together (all indications are that it will) it should be a strong storm that tends north rather than west. That's where the models have it going after it develops. Member Since: Luglio 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1249

3465. WatchingThisOne 06:51 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting xcool: Same deal as the others ... western tip of Cuba. Things are really beginning to line up for a GOM storm. Member Since: Luglio 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1249

3466. weathersp 06:51 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting Ivanhater: inside word is 00z euro is not good for the gom It can't be worse than last night's... Although overall this puts me in a predicament, because it is well known that the EURO is a very good model, #1 by a few percent in verification over other models. But this whole Yes! a monster, no maybe not.. flip flop is really got me, not confused per say, but perplexed. Member Since: Gennaio 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4112

3467. xcool 06:51 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
guess soo Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

3468. JVGazeley 06:52 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting lparky: I get what you are saying, is it too early to really watch models? We're always dealing with probabilities. The further into the future you're looking, the more uncertainty there is, and thus the less you can depend on the models. If the models all seem to agree then they do so for a reason. Always take them with a pinch of salt though, especially when they're forecasting wacky fujiwara stuff. Member Since: Giugno 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 33

3470. Levi32 06:52 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting xcool: Wrong run again....this is the current image out so far. The one you're showing is from last night's. Member Since: novembre 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

3471. xcool 06:53 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
ewcm best allday Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

3472. xcool 06:54 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Levi32 i dnot know why. .thanks Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

3473. Fl30258713 06:54 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
I live near the AL/FL state line about 20 miles north of the Gulf. All I can say is yuck. Still way early, but yuck. There is a bunch of oil in the GOM to our South and East over to Panama City. The idea of smelling Tropical moisture mixed with oil, yuck. Our beaches will be so trashed. The other concern is the oil that hasn't surfaced being churned up during a tropical event. What ever size it turns out to be will bad if it gets up here. Member Since: Luglio 24, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 976

3474. WatchingThisOne 06:56 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting Levi32: Wrong run again....this is the current image out so far. The one you're showing is from last night's. Actually, both of those are June 27, 00Z ... the one xcool posted was 144 hr ... the one you posted 120 hr. Member Since: Luglio 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1249

3475. Levi32 06:58 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
0z ECMWF broad low in the western gulf. Again, intensity forecasts should not be focused on right now...the models will be spread out on the intensity. We don't even have a developed system yet. Goodnight all. Member Since: novembre 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

3476. Levi32 06:58 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting WatchingThisOne: Actually, both of those are June 27, 00Z ... the one xcool posted was 144 hr ... the one you posted 120 hr. Exactly why mine was the current one and his was not... Member Since: novembre 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

3477. xcool 06:58 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
;; Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

3478. WatchingThisOne 07:03 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting WatchingThisOne: Actually, both of those are June 27, 00Z ... the one xcool posted was 144 hr ... the one you posted 120 hr. My bad, getting tired and taking Vicodan for pain. You are correct that current run puts a lot less low into the Gulf. Apologies. Member Since: Luglio 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1249

3480. xcool 07:04 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
btwntx08 lol Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

3481. WatchingThisOne 07:05 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting Levi32: Exactly why mine was the current one and his was not... Yup, must be time for bed. Sorry 'bout that. Member Since: Luglio 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1249

3482. homelesswanderer 07:05 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting xcool: Levi32 i dnot know why. .thanks Hey XCOOL. When using that ECMWF model from that site sometimes I have to refresh the pages or it shows the last run. Gotta wait longer but that should fix it. :) Member Since: Agosto 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

3483. xcool 07:06 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
homelesswanderer .yep Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

3485. xcool 07:09 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
NA Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

3487. xcool 07:12 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
TAKE ALL MODEL I have to throw it out the window.BEEP Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

3489. homelesswanderer 07:14 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
I had to fight my way onto any site. Kept getting virus warnings for every weather site I use. Weird. So forgive me if these things have been posted already. What I noticed about the CMC they're seeing a huge trough over the U.S. So apparently is the GFS. I don't know what happened to the monster ridge thats supposed to build back over the gulf and keep storm moving west. Also CMC sped up landfall by about 2 days. However at 216-240 hrs shows 2 other storms. It is definitely still completely up in the air about landfall and strength. Member Since: Agosto 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

3490. weathersp 07:14 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting F4PHANTOM: ECMWF shows the systems on the W coast of Fla. at 144 hr, then around N.O. at 168hr. then stretched from N.O. to Mex. at 192hr. Don't think it will play out like that. Model is all over the place. Try Again... Member Since: Gennaio 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4112

3491. xcool 07:14 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

3493. homelesswanderer 07:16 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting btwntx08: whoa wait a minute here is the other view of it still shows a 1002 mb low or maybe a weak ts Gunnin' for ya again BT. :) Member Since: Agosto 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

3494. JLPR2 07:17 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting btwntx08: OMG look at hr 216 on holy s** look out me* yep, right at your doorstep Hey guys, how's everything tonight? XD Member Since: Settembre 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

3495. xcool 07:18 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
YEAH HIT NOLA GO TO TX OH SNAP Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

3497. xcool 07:20 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
LMAO rob Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

3499. homelesswanderer 07:21 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting F4PHANTOM: ECMWF shows the systems on the W coast of Fla. at 144 hr, then around N.O. at 168hr. then stretched from N.O. to Mex. at 192hr. Don't think it will play out like that. Model is all over the place. It does look like it rolls the energy around the gulf but at end it settles on Brownsville Member Since: Agosto 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

3500. xcool 07:22 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
crazy shi go happen Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

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