Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 02:50 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010

A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)

Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.

Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.

Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.

Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)

Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo

Categories: Flood Hurricane

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301. Levi32 04:09 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Blog updated. Tropical Tidbit for Monday, June 21st Member Since: novembre 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

302. weathermanwannabe 04:09 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
The StormTop weather center should be opening up soon.............. Member Since: Agosto 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6695

303. Patrap 04:09 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting Grothar: I was in Southampton,NY with my girlfriend. We had just gone to see Psycho and were told to leave because a storm was coming. Gee, Pat, I'm old enough to be your father. LOL ..I'll never turn to the Dark Side, Fatha.. Wooom,,Woom Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111476

305. FLWeatherFreak91 04:09 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting Jeff9641: Models are picking up on a low developing SE of 93L. The low in the itcz just to the east of the islands off the coast of s. america Member Since: Dicembre 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3461

307. Hurricanes101 04:10 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy: The only consecutive Cat 5 storm (even though I've never believed it should count as a Cat 5 storm): Ethel 1960 Member Since: Marzo 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

310. Patrap 04:11 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
#306 Opal..95. She almost caught many on I-10 Evacuating..but thankfully weakened rapidly before landfall. Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111476

311. Hurricanes101 04:12 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting sammywammybamy: If a Hurricane did make it into the gulf , it would actually help dissapate the oil, however abvously once you have a storm in the gulf and has to hit land. dissipate the oil? by doing what bringing it inland? Yea ok cuz that is better rolls eyes Member Since: Marzo 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

312. tropicfreak 04:12 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
I can't seem to pinpoint the center of circulation. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

313. louisianaboy444 04:14 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Okay whats this one Member Since: Agosto 29, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 1219

314. Floodman 04:15 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting rmbjoe1954: By the way, does anyone know what Bastardi's take is on 93L? Bastardis take on 93L: Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

315. Patrap 04:15 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Jeff Masters discusses Oil in the GOM and what a Hurricane can do. NOLA Radio WWLNews 87 The Spud Show Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111476

316. 1900hurricane 04:15 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy: The only consecutive Cat 5 storm (even though I've never believed it should count as a Cat 5 storm): I agree with you there. I see way more evidence pointing away from ranking Ethel as a Category 5 than towards it. Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

318. Grothar 04:17 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy: The only consecutive Cat 5 storm (even though I've never believed it should count as a Cat 5 storm): Ethel was always second to Lucy Member Since: Luglio 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19542

319. stillwaiting 04:17 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
stillwaitings blog on 93L,all questions/comments welcome,will we have alex by tomorrow night???? Member Since: Ottobre 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

320. louisianaweatherguy 04:17 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
wow where the heck did 93L come from?!?!?! ugghhhhh!!! I gotta Gustav gut feeling about this one... we're really counting on shear in the gulf to rip this one apart... Member Since: Luglio 9, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 685

321. Hurricanes101 04:17 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting louisianaboy444: Okay whats this one suprise hurricane of 1943? Member Since: Marzo 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

322. Patrap 04:18 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Opal 95 shows how fast we can get a Bad one...close to Home. Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111476

323. Floodman 04:18 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: dissipate the oil? by doing what bringing it inland? Yea ok cuz that is better rolls eyes Muahahahahaha...now that's funny, I don't care who you are... Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

324. PanhandleChuck 04:18 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting louisianaweatherguy: wow where the heck did 93L come from?!?!?! ugghhhhh!!! I gotta Gustav gut feeling about this one... we're really counting on shear in the gulf to rip this one apart... Not gonna happen... Look at the forecast maps for the sheer Member Since: Maggio 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183

325. louisianaboy444 04:18 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: suprise hurricane of 1943? ehhhhhhhhhh...NOPE! Member Since: Agosto 29, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 1219

326. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 04:19 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
INV/93/L MARK 13.2N/67.1W Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40555

328. AussieStorm 04:20 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Goodnight all,,, stay safe Member Since: Settembre 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13329

329. Patrap 04:20 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
The Pelicans arent to thrilled about it. Neither are the Terns,Egrets,Shrimp,crabs,eyrster's,,etc,yada,yada,yada Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111476

330. 1900hurricane 04:20 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: suprise hurricane of 1943? Naw, Surprise Hurricane made landfall near Houston. I have no idea what that is, but it looks like an unnamed storm from the 1800s. Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

331. CaneWarning 04:20 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting weathermanwannabe: The StormTop weather center should be opening up soon.............. Yes, but what about Debby? Remember, she is supposed to really impress us all with her knowledge. Member Since: Aprile 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667

332. IKE 04:21 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
I think the NHC ups the pct. on the next TWO. Continued improvement in appearance on 93L. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

334. tropicfreak 04:21 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting GreenMe2225: right now everything about 93L points to it being a monster storm as it is already throwing off the formation nucleus in favor beginning an outflow and inflow. we are already seeing the beginning of a curculation and the formation of an llc. no shear to speak of, super hot watter all the way to whereever it is going. MONSTER, baby! yep perfect conditions, heck we could see TD 1 by tonight! Member Since: Settembre 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

337. louisianaboy444 04:21 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting 1900hurricane: Naw, Surprise Hurricane made landfall near Houston. I have no idea what that is, but it looks like an unnamed storm from the 1800s. Helpful hint: A book was written about it... Member Since: Agosto 29, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 1219

338. xcool 04:21 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
game on 93L Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

339. CaicosRetiredSailor 04:22 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
The algorithm in this six image Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement (Dvorak) tracks almost due west as it attempts to pick the center. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/4kmsrbdc_loop.asp?storm_identifier=AL932010&st arting_image=2010AL93_4KMSRBDC_201006211315.jpg Member Since: Luglio 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5129

341. tropicfreak 04:23 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting weathermanwannabe: The StormTop weather center should be opening up soon.............. That troll that keeps fighting back???? Member Since: Settembre 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

342. Patrap 04:23 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111476

344. louisianaboy444 04:23 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting RecordSeason: Last Island Hurricane? GOOD JOB! Do i make the winnings out to Record Season or do you go by another name my friend wink wink :) Member Since: Agosto 29, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 1219

345. extreme236 04:24 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting IKE: I think the NHC ups the pct. on the next TWO. Continued improvement in appearance on 93L. They will probably say it's showing some signs of organization. Probably orange alert (30%...maybe 40%) Member Since: Agosto 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

346. IKE 04:24 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
High continues developing over 93L.... Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

348. Floodman 04:24 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting GreenMe2225: right now everything about 93L points to it being a monster storm as it is already throwing off the formation nucleus in favor beginning an outflow and inflow. we are already seeing the beginning of a curculation and the formation of an llc. no shear to speak of, super hot watter all the way to whereever it is going. MONSTER, baby! Wow...so you don't see the slightest possibility of something interfering with this feature developing? How about track? I imagine you can tell us exactly where it's going? A CAT7 super-hypercane in Tampa at 144 hours? Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

349. Patrap 04:24 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor: The algorithm in this six image Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement (Dvorak) tracks almost due west as it attempts to pick the center. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/4kmsrbdc_loop.asp?storm_identifier=AL932010&am p;st arting_image=2010AL93_4KMSRBDC_201006211315.jpg Roger Dat 13,..go ahead and give yer Cryo tanks a stir when ya can,, Copy? Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111476

350. IKE 04:25 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting extreme236: They will probably say it's showing some signs of organization. Probably orange alert (30%...maybe 40%) I agree. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

351. Hurricanes101 04:25 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting louisianaboy444: GOOD JOB! Do i make the winnings out to Record Season or do you go by another name my friend wink wink :) ah ok, good one lol Member Since: Marzo 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

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