Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 02:50 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010

A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)

Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.

Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.

Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.

Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)

Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo

Categories: Flood Hurricane

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2903. gordydunnot 03:01 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Good night all this one is for Ike if he was on line some nice Guitar, Thorogood 2 like some of the bloggers here Bad to the bone, live in Mississippi.Link Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

2905. kmanislander 03:02 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
I don't see anything other than status quo for 93L through the rest of the night. Until we see some deep convection in that dry slot right where the "center" is this is not going to do much of anything. Maybe more action tomorrow. That said, good night all. Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

2906. Orcasystems 03:02 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting StormW: Oh..you said bullish!! ROFLMAO, put your glasses on Storm :) Member Since: Ottobre 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

2908. midgulfmom 03:04 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Goodnite Patrapster... loved it! ha ha ha c ya Member Since: Luglio 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1002

2909. Drakoen 03:04 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Lower to mid level turning in the last couple of frames: Member Since: Ottobre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

2910. RobertM320 03:04 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting BaltOCane: exactly, well said. sorry not eveyone one here knows every single person who is a Met in and around the US and VI. The Egos in this place are ridiculous. Actually, I don't think its egos. Maybe more a case of a younger generation that just ASSUMES they're equals of older, more experienced adults. Does anyone from the current generation understand the word humility? Bottom line, if your 13 or 15 or whatever, just accept there are a lot of people here who know more than you. Member Since: Settembre 27, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 111

2911. Ivanhater 03:04 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting futuremet: Bullish as always... Hasn't been bullish at all with this system yet, but then again it is the NAM ;) Member Since: Giugno 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 53

2915. CypressJim08 03:05 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Do we get another update from the NHC at 11PM or 2AM? Member Since: Agosto 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 23

2916. Drakoen 03:06 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
ASCAT caught the western side of the system with no evidence of a surface circulation: Member Since: Ottobre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

2917. MechEngMet 03:06 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Aha Storm. LOL! Now we see what just one Fresca and Beam can do? No more forecasting under the influence (FUI). G-night Chief... Member Since: Aprile 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 353

2918. Stormchaser2007 03:06 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Some convection firing near the center. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15243

2920. Stormchaser2007 03:07 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting CypressJim08: Do we get another update from the NHC at 11PM or 2AM? 2am Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15243

2922. pottery 03:08 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
BAH!! Looks like another swarm of rain is about to get here. This Island is wet wet wet. And just a couple of weeks ago it was hot hot hot. Member Since: Ottobre 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20703

2923. StormGoddess 03:08 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting StormW: Isn't that the percentage of moisture in the atmosphere? LOL! Why yes, I do believe it is. Member Since: Giugno 10, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 569

2924. MiamiHurricanes09 03:08 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
I will mainly be lurking but I will still be posting blog updates. Thanks for the support. June 21, 2010 - 11:10 PM EDT - New Invest 93L; Could Be A Problem Down The Road - Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2925. gordydunnot 03:08 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Pottery ask and you shall receive. Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

2926. CypressJim08 03:09 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: 2am TY...I always get confused because when we have a named storm there are updates every three hours I think.? Member Since: Agosto 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 23

2927. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 03:09 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting CypressJim08: Do we get another update from the NHC at 11PM or 2AM? 2AM Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40398

2928. kimoskee 03:09 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting pottery: BAH!! Looks like another swarm of rain is about to get here. This Island is wet wet wet. And just a couple of weeks ago it was hot hot hot. Hush. It's been a wet one here today also. Seems like there's alot more coming our way. Stay dry. Member Since: Agosto 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 670

2931. AllStar17 03:10 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
I have posted a quick new blog. Please comment. Link Member Since: Giugno 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5135

2932. atmoaggie 03:10 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting Ossqss: Was the TCHP product changed in 08? I am just fishing for things that make what I see, not as bad...... LOL! Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

2933. MechEngMet 03:10 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
ROFLOL! "Bullish" and "Humility"...? Only one drink Storm? Member Since: Aprile 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 353

2934. Drakoen 03:10 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Member Since: Ottobre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

2935. louisianaboy444 03:11 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Change of subject but CNN has just confirmed now worst case scenario shows up to 100,000 barrels could be flowing into the gulf....this sounds about right....i wasnt buying that 10,000 or even 1,000 crap...definately got caught sleeping! Member Since: Agosto 29, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 1218

2936. Skyepony (Mod) 03:11 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Note fresh ASCAT pass of the wave I say should steal the show.. Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29251

2938. Papagolash 03:11 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting connie1976: I wonder how many people here are actually mets.. I could say that I am....but it doesn't mean that I am....lol... I have a BS in Meteorology, but I currently don't have a job in the field using my degree. I should still be able to call myself a Meteorologist right? Member Since: Agosto 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 21

2939. Stormchaser2007 03:12 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting CypressJim08: TY...I always get confused because when we have a named storm there are updates every three hours I think.? 6 hour updates with no warnings and 3 hour updates when there are TS/HUR watches or warnings. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15243

2940. Hurricanes101 03:12 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting Skyepony: Note fresh ASCAT pass of the wave I say should steal the show.. CMC could be right, that it is this feature that develops and robs energy from 93L Member Since: Marzo 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

2941. MississippiWx 03:12 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
DMin really doing its work on 93L...convection clearing out.. Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 8507

2942. pottery 03:12 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting gordydunnot: Pottery ask and you shall receive. True! But although I asked for rain, what I really wanted was the occasional gentle drizzle. I suppose I should have been more specific. Ah Well...... Member Since: Ottobre 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20703

2943. midgulfmom 03:12 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13: Storm, its humility not humidity :P Seriously? PAHAHA Clever Storm... Member Since: Luglio 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1002

2944. gordydunnot 03:13 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
The devil is in the details. Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

2945. atmoaggie 03:14 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy: Who are they? StormW 456 Haboobs txag91met RyanFSU makes an appearance when there is actually something half-brewed A secret old guy Bonus round: one other I cannot place my finger on... Prolly leaving out a couple, too. Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

2947. Orcasystems 03:15 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting Papagolash: I have a BS in Meteorology, but I currently don't have a job in the field using my degree. I should still be able to call myself a Meteorologist right? There are lots on here who have Meteorologist BS.... hmm do I have those backwards? Member Since: Ottobre 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

2948. Drakoen 03:15 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting Orcasystems: Their are lots on here who have Meteorologist BS.... hmm do I have those backwards? lol Member Since: Ottobre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

2949. pottery 03:15 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting Skyepony: Note fresh ASCAT pass of the wave I say should steal the show.. HUH!!! Member Since: Ottobre 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20703

2951. Skyepony (Mod) 03:16 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: CMC could be right, that it is this feature that develops and robs energy from 93L NOGAPS agrees..though not as bullish. The anticyclone favors it & it has much more vorticity than 93L..still needs to pull north & not hit South America. Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29251

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